Divisional Round Picks and Analysis
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Another fun week ahead. Obviously as the games dwindle down, the number of bets we will make will as well. Let’s crush it!
Interesting Trends
Before we get into the games I wanted to cover some trends for the Divisional Weekend games
Since 2011 home teams are 31-9 straight up in the divisional round
Cincinnati was 15-3 on 6pt teasers this season (best in the NFL)
Green Bay was 14-3 on 6pt teasers this season (2nd best in the NFL)
Playoff games where the total closed at 55 or higher have gone under 8 out of 9 times. The only time it went over was Bills-Chiefs
3 of the 4 games are replays from this season
Week 3 - GB beat SF 30-28 in San Fran
Week 3 - LAR beat TB 34-24 in LA
Week 5 - Bills beat Chiefs 38-20 in KC
Game by Game analysis:
For the playoffs, I have am giving a bit more content for each game. Enjoy!
Bengals @ Titans (Saturday 4:30pm) -
Weather Report1 - Expected to be sunny with minimal wind, but the high is only around 40
Line Movement - This line opened at Tennessee -3.5 and hasn’t moved
Stat that might matter - Titans road games averaged ~51 points per game, but home games have averaged only ~40
My 2 cents - I’ll be honest up front, I find this game really hard to handicap and the reason is two words….Derek Henry. How healthy is he going to be? He hasn’t played in 80 days. If he is fully fit as some (like Clay Travis) have suggested, this could be a big problem for the Bengals as I am not sure they are equipped to stop him but really who is. I am going to bank that he isn’t 100%. That said is I am also not really sure how the Titans defensive backs stop the Bengals offense so I really like the over and that is why I grabbed that earlier this week and why I am going with the Bengals here. I really like having the hook of 3.5 as I think this could easily fall on 3.
Titanic Model Output-
11th ranked team @ 9th ranked team
Model says this line should be Titans -2.8
The model projection is inside the margin of error so this is a pass
49ers @ Packers (Saturday 8:15pm) -
Weather Report - Expected to be a mostly cloudy night with minimal wind and possible flurries. The high is expected to be about 1 degree
Line Movement - This line opened at Green Bay -6 and has moved to -5.5
Stats that might matter -
Green Bay is 17-7 against the spread (22-2 straight up) in their last 24 home games
Aaron Rodgers has scored at least 20 points in all 23 playoff games he has played for the Packers
Jimmy G 14-4 against the spread (13-5 straight up) in his career as an underdog2
My 2 cents - As you will see below, my model actually rates San Fran as the better team and I do not disagree. They pose a difficult matchup for the Packers. As you may have noticed last week when I did my futures, I actually took both Dallas and SF to win the super bowl as I personally thought both of them would have an excellent shot of going into Green Bay and winning. What will be really interesting to see is how Green Bay’s defense and specifically the returns of Smith and Alexander impact their ability to blunt what is a really interesting motion offense and can they put the ball in Jimmy G’s hands to try and win the game. Debo is a monster and I agree with Michael Lombardi3 that he should try returning kicks as GB’s special teams is terrible and he holds the South Carolina record for KR TDs. I also personally expect Bosa and Fred Warner to both play in this game.
Titanic Model Output
10th ranked team @ 12th ranked team
Model says this line should be Green Bay -0.2
49ers +5.5 (-105) for 1u
Rams @ Bucs (Sunday 3:00pm) -
Weather Report - Expected to be a clear day of sunshine, wind around 10-15mph and a high around 60 degrees
Line Movement - This line opened at Tampa Bay -3 and this looks like it might move to -2.5 or has moved at some books
Stat that might matter - Brady’s highest passing game of the season (432 yards) was vs the Rams
My 2 cents - This gam confounds me. I started this week thinking I was going to be on the Buccaneers, but as the week has gone on, I am really starting to think I like the Rams because Akers looked great last week (spoiler, check my DFS lineup), the Rams were so far ahead last week that they could take their foot off the gas and save some stuff, and the Bucs are sooooooo banged up. I think I am going to go Rams here, but honestly I do not love it given how many road teams I like and the stat I covered above about how they don’t win that frequently in this round of the playoffs.
Titanic Model Output
5th ranked team @ 1st ranked team
My model thinks Bucs should be favored by 4.2 points
The model projection is inside the margin of error so this is a pass
Bills @ Chiefs (Sunday 6:30pm) -
Weather Report - Looks like it should be pretty clear with 10-15mph winds. The temp should be mid 40’s, but drop down as the game goes on.
Line Movement - This line opened at Chiefs -2.5 and this is now -1.5
Stats that might matter -
Patrick Mahomes has never been less than a 2.5 point favorite at home in his career
Okay this isn’t really a stat, but Ariel Helwani4 pointed out it is possible that Bills win this game, go to Nashville next week to try and avenge the Music City Miracle and then head to SoFi Stadium to try and topple Brady! That would be a hell of a way to shed some historical baggage
My 2 cents - This is clearly the game of the week and should be the most exciting game, though as I said above, I think some of these other games are shaping up to be really interesting as well……I am ready to look dumb but I agree with my model and I think Bills should win this game. I LOVE the way their offense has looked and I think their D should make the Chiefs a little uncomfortable in this game. People do not seem to talk about how great Singletary has looked recently and I think he could have another big game (Spoiler, he will be in DFS below). The Chiefs will eventually be made to pay for how they are playing and I think this is the day. One thing that does really worry me with the Bills pick, other than betting against Mahomes, is that Bills OC and DC both spent this last week interviewing for HC roles.
Titanic Model Output -
2nd ranked team @ 6th ranked team
My model thinks Bills should be favored by 1.2 points
Buffalo +2.5 (-110) for 1u - This was published on Wednesday
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Not too many games so there will be less action from now on
Pending - 2u -120 6pt teaser on Buf +8.5 / Cin-Ten over 41 - Given Wednesday
Pending - 1u -110 on Cin-Ten Over 47 - Given Wednesday
2.2u 6pt teaser -110 Cinci +9.5 / SF +11.5
1.1u 6pt teaser -110 on Cinci +9.5 and over 41.5 Cin/Ten
1u 7pt teaser +200 on Cin +10.5 / SF +12.5 / Buf +8.5 / LAR +10
0.5u +200 on San Fran money line
0.25u underdog special parlay +3740 Cin +165 / SF +200 / LAR +130 / Buf +110
EDIT NOTE: I just posted a column about hedging strategy for this parlay:
0.25u on Rams Def TD +600
0.5u parlay - Twitter giveaway (you must like the tweet AND follow me on Twitter to be eligible):
Futures Watch:
I am going to keep this section rolling each week to show where things stand
Adds
1.15u NFC SB Money Line -115
0.5u Buffalo to win Super Bowl +500
Pending
1u Titans to win AFC +300
0.5u Green Bay - KC SB match up +550
0.25u San Fran to win Super Bowl +2200
0.25u Green Bay - Titans SB match up +1000
Settled
Loss - 0.5u Dallas to win Super Bowl +1100
Loss - 0.25u Dallas-KC SB match up +1600
One other thing with these, is that we may get to Conference Championship Weekend and have some really nice hedge opportunities.
Daily Fantasy -
This lineup is for the games where you can go across all 4 games!
QB - Burrow 6,600
RB - Akers 5,500 / Singletary 5,900
WR- OBJ 5,300 / Chase 7,100 / Diggs 6,500
TE- Firkser 3,100
Flex- Evans 6,800
DST - Bucs 3,100
Good luck in all your action!
I used Weather.com for these
@ArielHelwani on twitter - he has great MMA content, but is a Bills fan
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