In case you are thinking about signing up - my plan going forward is to do the following races:
March 9 - Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay Downs)
March 23 - Lousiana Derby (Fair Grounds)
March 30 - Florida Derby (Gulfstream) or Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn)
April 6 - Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) or Blue Grass (Keeneland)
April 13 - Lexington Stakes (Keeneland) ← this will be determined based on how things are going at that point and my personal schedule
May 4 - Kentucky Derby
May 18 - Preakness Stakes
June 8 - Belmont Stakes
Now that is a lot and I can’t promise all of them, but I do still promise at least 2 per month, and if this goes well, I may keep doing content throughout the summer.
Rebel Stakes Recap
We didn’t have a winning day and I know it can be tough to have only cashed 3 tickets all day, but the plan is to cash and cash big tickets and we did that when we did find a winner.
So we had a very slight profit at the window with our single-race tickets but struck out completely in the multirace market.
Race-by-Race Analysis:
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
I am also giving you my thoughts on each of the stakes races on Rebel Day.
Everything below this line is only available to those who financially support this substack.
Race 1 -11, 2, 5, 8, 3, 7
Race 2 - 1, 3, 8, 4
Race 3 - 5, 6, 4, 1, 8
Race 4 - 2, 6, 9, 10
Race 5 - 2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 10
Race 6 - 5, 4, 9, 7, 8
Race 7 - 1, 3, 7, 10, 6 ← I just think the 1 has too much speed for this group, but if there is a horse that could chase him down and score a decent price it is the 3 horse who will have zero issue with the length of this race. The 7 is a well-raced horse, but it is the first time this horse will see the GP track.
Race 8 - 3, 5, 1, 7, 11 ← I think the 3 is the best horse in this race having gone 2 for 2 in winning across this track. The 5 comes with a nice price and could get it done, but I think place is likely where he ends up. I know the 1 seems like a surprising pick, but love how he won back in Jan in Tampa and I think he hits the board. The 7 has already lost to the 3 on this track, but also won his last race here.
Race 9 - 2, 3, 6, 8 ← The odds tell you this is a 2-horse race and I think that is right. I am going to go with the horse that has run and won in 2024, rather than the horse that was 3 for 3 last year.
Race 10 - 8, 10, 7, 3, 5 ← The 10 horse is the best horse in this field and had a 4-win year in 2023, but lost here at the end of January, and I am going to try to beat her with 8 who has only raced once since last May. The 3 has hit the board 3 times in her 5 races at GP including 2 wins.
Race 11 - 5, 3, 4, 6 ← The 5 horse is the clear class of this field and I do not think it is particularly close, especially after winning on this track in a G3 back in Jan. This horse has never lost at GP or at this distance and I do not expect that to stop today.
Race 12 - 2, 4, 3, 6, 10, 5 - The 3 is coming off an incredibly long layoff and the odds are going to be garbage, especially this late on a stack stakes card. While the 2 haven’t had great trips at GP, with zero wins and 2 shows in 3 races here, he had an amazing 2023 with 8 for 8 on hitting the board including 3 wins, including his last one at this distance in Kentucky.
Race 13 - 5, 3, 4, 6, 7 ← I am not sure I understand the morning line on the 6. That horse performed terribly in her last race, which was here at GP, in January, and I think this race could be pretty wide open. The 5 and 3 were very close for me but I give the 5 the edge as these two horses came first and 2nd at GP in Feb with 5 winning the race.
Race 14 - Fountain of Youth - 1, 4, 5, 7 ← UPDATE - THIS RACE LOST A BUNCH OF GOOD HORSES TO SCRATCHES- This is looking like it should be a really great race. I know I am trying to beat another favorite in one of these major-stakes races, but to me, I am not sure how you look past what the 1 did back in January at his only race so far. Coming 2nd in that race was the 3-horse who ran fantastically as well in his only race, but to me, the 4-horse has the pedigree and the GP experience to get up on the board.
My list of race tickets:
Below are my tickets for today’s races and these are based on my analysis and my bankroll. PLEASE make sure you are gambling within your bankroll and your limits!!
For today, I am giving myself a $400 bankroll for all the races today. Now for me, that is equivalent to 4u of sports betting risk.
This does NOT mean you have to bet that much too. If you are someone with a more limited bankroll, PLEASE throttle down the amount wagered to a level that is more comfortable for you (e.g., cut every bet in half).
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
The first post is at 11:15 am ET.
UPDATE - 9:50 AM ET WE ARE UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES
My betting card ($329):
Race 1 - Multiple ($17)
$5 on 11 to win
$2 Exacta Box 2, 5, 11 ($12)
Race 2 - $10 on 1 to win ($10)
Race 3 - $2 Exacta Box 4, 5, 6 ($12)
Race 4 - Multiple ($40)
$10 on 2 to win
$0.5 Trifecta Box 2, 6, 9, 10 ($12)
$0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 6, 9 / 2, 5, 6, 9 / 5 / 1, 3, 7 ($18)
Race 5 - Multiple ($17)
$5 on 2 to win
$2 Exacta Box 2, 5, 6 ($12)
Race 6 - Multiple ($20)
$10 on 5 to win
$5 Exact 5 / 4, 9 ($10)
Race 7 - Multiple ($50)
$10 on 1 to win
$2 Exacta Box 1, 3, 7 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1, 3 / 1, 3, 7, 10 / 1, 3, 7, 10 ($12)
$2 Pick 3 - 1, 3 / 3, 5 / 2, 3 ($16)
Race 8 - Multiple ($33)
$15 on 3 to win
$1 Trifecta 3, 5 / 1, 3, 5, 7 / 1, 3, 5, 7, 11 ($18)
Race 9 - $10 Exact 2 / 3 ($10)
Race 10 - Multiple ($27)
$5 on 8 to Win
$10 on 8 to Show
$0.5 Trifecta Box 3, 7, 8, 10 ($12)
Race 11 - Multiple ($25)
$15 on 5 to win
$5 Exact 5 / 3, 4 ($10)
Race 12 - $2 Exacta Box 2, 3, 4 ($12)
Race 13 - Multiple ($22)
$10 on 5 to win
$0.5 Trifecta Box 3, 4, 5, 6 ($12)
Race 14 -Race 13 - Multiple ($34)
$10 on 1 to win
$2 Exacta Box 1, 4, 5 ($12)
$0.5 Trifecta Box 1, 4, 5, 7 ($12)
List of Pick 5 and Pick 4 tickets:
These are HIGH risk / high-reward bets. You should view these are 4 and 5-race parlays so if you are going to do these make sure you fully understand the risk you are taking on here.
For those who are interested in this action, I will always give you a proposed ticket for every sequence offered but will delineate what I am betting/tracking by putting those in italics ($372.1 / $18) and note that the ones in italics also appear above:
Race 1 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 2, 5, 8, 11 / 1 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 / 2, 6, 9 / 2, 5, 6 ($90)
Race 2 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 3, 8 / 4, 5, 6 / 2, 6, 9 / 2, 5, 6 ($40.5)
Race 4 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 6, 9 / 2, 5, 6, 9 / 5 / 1, 3, 7 ($18)
Race 5 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11 / 5 / 1, 3, 7, 10 / 3, 5 / 2, 3 ($48)
Race 7 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 3, 7 / 1, 3, 5 / 2, 3 / 3, 7, 8, 10 ($36)
Race 9 - $0.2 Pick 6 - 2, 3 / 3, 7, 8, 10 / 5 / 2, 3, 4 / 3, 4, 5 / 1, 4, 5, 7 ($57.6)
Race 10 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 3, 7, 8, 10 / 5 / 2, 3, 4, 6 / 3, 5 / 1, 4, 5, 7 ($64)
Race 11 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 5 / 2, 3, 4 / 3, 4, 5 / 1, 4, 5, 7 ($18)