In case you are thinking about signing up - my plan going forward is to do the following races:
March 30 - Florida Derby (Gulfstream) or Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn)
April 6 - Wood Memorial (Aqueduct) or Blue Grass (Keeneland)
April 13 - Lexington Stakes (Keeneland) ← this will be determined based on how things are going at that point and my schedule
Triple Crown - Friday posts will be for those who support, these will be republished for free day of the races.
May 4 - Kentucky Derby
May 18 - Preakness Stakes
June 8 - Belmont Stakes
Now that is a lot and I can’t promise all of them, but I do still promise at least 2 per month, and if this goes well, I may keep doing content throughout the summer.
Fair Grounds 3/15 Recap
This was incredibly frustrating. They set the list of races for the day and released the scratches 2 hours before the first post. Then they got an unexpected downpour and had to pull a bunch of races off the turf and onto the mud and did that about 30 min before the first race.
That then caused a bunch of horses to scratch and for my handicapping to be pretty off. Now, you can ask a fair question of me as to whether I should have known that would happen with the track change.
I would say this - Fair Grounds is one of the tracks that have “also eligible” and “main track only” entries. Had THEY known they would change courses they would have left those horses in and not scratched them all 2 hours before the post …..so I would say if the track doesn’t know and made that change about 30 min before the first post, I am not sure it would be realistic for me to anticipate it.
I did get a question in the discord this week about posting my picks early and doing them live race by race, or just watching the first few races to get a feel for how the track is going and then firing my list of picks….. I think both are very fair criticisms of the content I put here for horse racing.
What I would say in response is that if I started doing the picks race by race folks would be required to sit around on a race day waiting for my picks and be ready to fire every 30-ish min and I know that is not possible for many folks. The other suggestion of watching the races and then posting is also something I could do, but again I know some folks might not be able to wait for picks coming in the middle of the day, especially given I get messages from folks every week asking when scratches are coming.
That can and should not stop you from skipping the first race or two and seeing how the track is running or how my handicapping is going and then making the call for yourself about what you want to do with the rest of the races.
Race-by-Race Analysis:
As always, I have handicapped every single race on the card and will update these after the scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
Race 1 - 5, 11, 6, 7
Race 2 - 9, 4, 2
Race 3 - 8, 4, 5, 2
Race 4 - 11, 7, 9, 10, 1
Race 5 - 6, 7, 2, 3, 4
Race 6 - 2, 7, 9, 8, 6
Race 7 - 7, 6, 2, 3, 1
Race 8 - 1, 9, 4, 10, 6
Race 9 - 3, 5, 9, 1, 2
Race 10 - 13, 4, 2, 7, 3
Race 11 - 5, 6, 8, 1
Race 12 - 5, 2, 7, 12, 3, 9
My list of race tickets:
Below are my tickets for today’s races and these are based on my analysis and my bankroll. PLEASE make sure you are gambling within your bankroll and your limits!!
For today, I am giving myself a $250 bankroll for all the races today. Now for me, that is equivalent to 2.5u of sports betting risk.
This does NOT mean you have to bet that much too. If you have a more limited bankroll, PLEASE throttle down the amount wagered to a more comfortable level for you (e.g., cut every bet in half).
As always, this will be updated after scratches are announced and I will send out a note to everyone to check back!
The first post is at 1 pm ET.
UPDATE 11:55 AM ET - WE ARE UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES.
My betting card ($236):
Race 1 - Multiple ($22)
$10 on 5 to win
$2 Exacta box 5, 6, 11 ($12)
Race 2 - Pass
Race 3 - Multiple ($17)
$5 on 8 to win
$2 Exacta box 4, 5, 8 ($12)
Race 4 - Pass
Race 5 - Multiple ($32)
$20 on 6 to win
$2 Pick 3 on 6 / 2, 7, 9 / 2, 7 ($12)
Race 6 - Multiple ($22)
$10 on 2 to win
$2 Exacta box 2, 7, 9 ($12)
Race 7 - Multiple ($17)
$5 on 7 to win
$2 Exacta 2, 7 / 2, 3, 6, 7 ($12)
Race 8 - Multiple ($29)
$5 on 1 to win
$2 Exacta box 1, 4, 9 ($12)
$0.5 trifecta box 1, 4, 9, 10 ($12)
Race 9 - Multiple ($22)
$10 on 3 to win
$0.5 trifecta box 1, 3, 5, 9 ($12)
Race 10 - Multiple ($31)
$10 on 13 to win
$2 Exacta box 2, 4, 13 ($12)
$1 Pick 3 on 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 2, 5, 7 ($9)
Race 11 - $10 Exacta 5 / 6
Race 12 - Multiple ($34)
$10 on 5 to win
$2 Exacta box 2, 5, 7 ($12)
$0.5 trifecta box 2, 5, 7, 12 ($12)
List of Pick 5 and Pick 4 tickets:
These are HIGH risk / high-reward bets. You should view these are 4 and 5-race parlays so if you are going to do these make sure you fully understand the risk you are taking on here.
For those who are interested in this action, I will always give you a proposed ticket for every sequence offered but will delineate what I am betting/tracking by putting those in italics ($372). As you will see I am NOT betting any of these officially but if we start to see our guys hit that board I might personally dive in:
Race 1 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 5, 6, 11 / 4, 9 / 4, 5, 8 / 7, 9, 10, 11 / 2, 6, 7 ($108)
Race 2 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 4, 9, / 2, 4, 5, 8 / 7, 9, 11 / 6 ($18)
Race 4 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 7, 9, 10, 11 / 2, 6, 7 / 2, 7, 9 / 2, 7 / 1, 4, 9 ($108)
Race 5 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 2, 3, 6, 7 / 2, 7, 9 / 2, 7 / 1, 4, 9, 10 ($48)
Race 8 - $0.5 Pick 5 - 1, 4, 9, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 9 / 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 2, 5, 7 ($72)
Race 9 - $0.5 Pick 4 - 1, 3, 5, 9 / 2, 4, 13 / 5 / 2, 5, 7 ($18)