I do not want to load up your email inboxes with extra emails so I will often look to combine things like my NFL and NBA picks when it makes sense to, like today!
Monday Night Football
We were looking at having a monster week and then the Dolphins did not show up at all. Let’s see if we can rescue a profit.
Game 13: Patriots @ Cardinals (Monday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
On Dec 6, 2021, the Cardinals were 10-2, in the 17 games since they are 5-12
Titanic Model Output - 1u on New England -1.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - One of the metrics that Warren Sharp likes to talk about is rest differential between teams and this is one of those games, as the Cardinals are coming off the bye, BUT the Pats have a the mini-bye with 10 days off! Now we all saw Mac Jones screaming at his offensive coaches and Vance Joseph is talking shit about it. My model thinks both of these offenses suck, but the Cardinals’ D has been surprisingly bad and no one seems to talk about how bad it has been while the Patriots have a fantastic D (8th best by my model’s calculations, and 3rd best by DVOA). One place that will be interesting to see how this game plays out will be in the red zone as this game pits the worst red zone D in the league (allowing TDs 68.9% of the time) against the 2nd worst red zone offense (scoring TDs 37.5% of the time).
Going with the model on the Pats
0.25u on Rhamondre Stevenson 115.5 rushing and receiving yards -115
I really hope you are coming to the Gamblers Paradise Discord where I gave out 4 same day props including this 25-1 winner and keep giving away hundreds of dollars:
NBA Weekly Recap
Not a ton to say. Not a huge profit to date, but I am always happy with a profit.
NBA Plays
Yesterday’s Performance: Went 2-0 for a 1.8u profit
Today - The model has 2 games for 2u of risk
Strategy - I am playing all the picks
Other Notes -
Plays Tables