MNF / Week 8 Recap
Overview
The NFL #TitanicModel turns positive for the month of October with a 5-4 week for 1.4u profit….Overall profit is profit so I won’t turn my nose up at it even if it is just 0.25u. Here is the time series chart that shows weekly profit (blue) and cumulative profit (orange). I will produce this each week (good or bad) from now on:
My NBA package launched today and plays will be out around 4pm eastern so make sure you don’t miss out!!!!
Monday Night Football
Unfortunately MNF is a pass for my model. It sees no real value in this evening as it predicted a model of KC -9.8 so the the line of -10 or -10.5 doesn’t qualify as betting value.
Week 7 Recap - Headlines: Model 5-4 +1.4u, Exotics 1-7 -1.76u, YTD total 71-83-1 +16.30u
The #TitanicModel put 9 units at risk this week and it returned a 1.4u profit for a ROI of over 16.1%. If you think about betting like investing a 16% return for a week is GREAT!!
As I say every week: this is your reminder that every week is it’s own deal, but also that my model really should get better each week!!
Unfortunately the problem was exotics. While I did hit the under 7-1 underdog parlay, I frankly took too many shots and tied WAY too many things to the Browns. That is on me, but we are sill up 10u on the exotics this season
Game by game analysis
Let’s go game by game:
Packer @ Cardinals (TNF) - Ari -6 - 1u loss - I am still not sure what happened other than Rodgers did Rodgers stuff and Kyler looked realllllllly shaky
Dolphins @ Bills - Bills -13.5. - 1u win - This was not as easy as I thought it would be and it looked like the Bills were sleep walking through the game but I am glad they woke up when they did
Steelers @ Browns - Cle -3.5 - 1u loss - WHIFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
Eagles @ Lions - Eagles -3 .5 . - 1u win - I said we might look down at halftime and see this game 24-3 and I was wrong. It was 9min left in the 3rd quarter when the Eagles went up 24-0. This was a beat down and played out exactly as I though
Jaguars @ Seahawks - Sea -3. - 2u win - As I said on Friday “one of these teams is well coached by a former college national championship coach and the other is the Jaguars. I am betting against the Jags” - Yup. The Jags suck. Book the win
This content went 3-2 this week for 1.5u profit
This content this season is 10-7-2 for 6u profit
Daily Fantasy
The Sunday version was slightly unprofitable for me, but was more or less even.
Thursday version - looks to be a lost cause. unfortunately that James Robinson injury killed us