The model is taking another week where it is getting kicked in the nuts, but so far my add-ons have been keeping us afloat. We we see if we can close that out tomorrow night.
Also worth noting we have a few futures that have settled this week. I will cover all that in Thursday’s recap!
Monday Night Football
Game 16: Steelers @ Colts (Monday 8:15 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Last week I took the Bengals and my model liked it for 2u and that line kept getting steamed towards the Steelers - I honestly have no clue why. That game was never really close. The Bengals were always going to be the better team, but this week I do not believe that is going to be the case. The Colts have looked okay the last 2 weeks, which is a drastic improvement and that obviously coincides with the return of Matt Ryan. Now, Jeff Saturday and his staff have really over-performed, but I am not sure we will find a bigger coaching mismatch on the entire football calendar than him going against Mike Tomlin and his fantastic staff. My model does not think there is value here, but I believe the Steelers are the right side in this game therefore any shot I take will be small on the Steelers, but I won’t hesitate to use them in teasers as I am going to need to see the Colts beat a competent or well coached by over 7 to believe that it can happen
Verdict-
While I really lean toward the Steelers I am going to pass given how this week has gone and what we already have pending:
1.15u 6pt teaser -115 on Steelers +8.5 / Eagles -0.5
0.5u 6pt teaser +151 on Panthers +7.5 / Steelers +8.5 / Jets pk
Add 0.6 u 6pt teaser -120 on Steelers +8.5 / Ravens (week 13) -2
0.25u on Jonathan Taylor under 85.5 rushing yards (-115)