Happy Halloween!!! I hope you and your families have a fun and safe night!
We have had a positive week!!! I will get into the details of it Thursday, along with a check-in on our season-long player prop bets.
Monday Night Football
Game 15: Bengals @ Browns (Monday 8:15 pm) -
Weather Report -
Stat that might matter -
Per Warren Sharp, the Bengals have given up 22 points in the 3rd quarter of their last 15 games
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Cinci -3 (-120)
My 2 cents - The Bengals finally showed up last week for the explosive plays they have been waiting for and they curb-stomped the Falcons last week. They are now starting to hum and my model is showing them as the 3rd best team; I am heartened that Ben Baldwin agrees though this was all before they lost Ja’Marr Chase. Now look at the Browns D; they can’t stop the pass and/or the run (DVOA is 28th in the NFL), and I expect the Bengals to score all over them. The Browns are finding ways to lose and Brissett’s play has fallen off. Oh and apparently they have a locker room problem, per The Athletic’s Zac Jackson, someone in the locker room yelled “no fucking leadership” after last week’s loss to the Ravens. The only thing that scares me is that this is a turning point for the Browns as this season is basically over if they lose.
Verdict -
Following my model
0.25u on Bengals 3rd Q -0.5 (+115)
0.25u over 3.5 FGs +135