The Titanic model1 is 7-4 +2.9u. Let’s keep it going!
Week 2
Game 15: Titans @ Bills (Monday 7:15 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per Action Network, Under Vrabel, the Titans are 19-9 straight up and 20-8 vs the spread as an underdog of at least 3
The Bills have a huge rest advantage over the Titans
Last week the Bills became just the 2nd team since 2014 to win by at least 21 points having 4 turnovers in a game
Per Frankie Taddeo, the Bills are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as double-digit favs
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Tennessee +10 (-110)
My 2 cents - Alright, I know the Giants aren’t good, and this Titans team lost to them. I also know that the Bills looked as good as advertised on opening night. I know the Titans have a huge rest advantage. Am I ready to look really dumb by midnight Monday night? YUP!!!! I just feel like this line is way high because of two overreactions to Week 1.
Verdict - When I was doing my prep I personally thought this would be -6.5 or -7 so I am going to ride with my model and pray I don’t want to cry by halftime.
Game 16: Vikings @ Eagles (Monday 8:30 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Lions were 4-4 in the red zone vs the Eagles, last season they were 28th
Eagles gave up 144 yards and 9.6 YPC to DeAndre Swift last week
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - These two teams might have had the most impressive offensive showings in Week 1 so I am quite interested to see how this game plays out. I disagree with Ben Solak, Justin Jefferson seems impossible to cover and Cousins was flinging the ball all over the park and I think they will find similar joy throwing on the Eagles, especially given they lost Derek Barnett for the season and the Eagles defense has been HIGHLY overrated the last few years - especially good QBs so I expect Cousins to have a good game and Theilen, who is amazing in the red zone to find the endzone.
Verdict - Pass as we have enough risk with the pending exotics for me.
0.25u Adam Theilen any time TD +175
Just the model, not the exotics