NFL Draft Thoughts / Picks
If you are a reader of my NFL columns each week you will know that I have mentioned that I am a big fan of the NFL draft and also my love of giving you something long to read on a Friday afternoon!!! The draft is less than a week away!! This is a fun time for throwing down the gauntlet on the players you like / don’t like but also presents a lovely betting opportunity.
In my columns from last season I was pretty clear where I think I have been right about players (see: Jackson, Lamar; Rosen, Joshua; Hebert, Justin; Jones, Daniel) and wrong about others (see: Allen, Joshua; Lock, Drew, Hurts, Jalen) so I wanted to put in writing my thoughts about this year’s crop. If you do not care about my draft thoughts, you can just scroll down to my bets.
Draft Thoughts
Now, let me be clear, I am not Dane Brugler (Note: go get the Beast. It is worth the price of the subscription by itself) as I just watch a ton of college football and use YouTube to help me scout QBs.
Firstly, this year the Draft is lacking elite talent and there is no where that is more apparent than QB. This is also not surprising. Last year every QB needy team knew that they had to get their guy because this year was not good and next year is super top heavy so if I was a QB needy team I would be looking at how can I improve my OL and get my QB EARLY next year (read: be okay with tanking Seattle, you too Atlanta).
Here are my rankings1 of how I think the top guys will be as NFL players, not the order they go:
Desmond Ridder - I love Ridder. The dude wins and wins a ton. I love his athleticism and his experience. Unlike some of the other QB’s in this class who do not lift teammates performance I think he helped others on that Cinci team be better than their talent indicates and his tenacity can be felt through the screen. Bonus for me - he meets every one of the Bill Parcells’s QB criteria2. If I were one of the teams at the top of the 2nd and Ridder was sitting there at say 28, I would ABSOLUTELY go grab him. Do I really think he is a 1st round QB? Not really, but that 5th year option, especially for a QB, is HUGE and even more so for someone I expect to continue to develop.
Sam Howell - I went into this season with him as my #1 QB and he looked dreadful. I was ready to kill him but when I went back and watched UNC I struck by just how bad his team was and I remembered a lot of his teammates left after last season (draft, graduation, etc.). I think he has the tools to be a decent starter in the NFL and is probably worth a mid-2nd round pick but I do not think he is going to be elevating his teammates so you are going to have to have a good team around him for him to be successful.
Matt Corral - I am going to be honest, I reallllly like Corral, but his injuries terrify me. I would not be shocked at all if someone hops up mid to late in the 1st to grab him as he has bags of athleticism and a really nice arm and if he can stay healthy could be a pretty good get, but his playing style leads to him getting hit a lot and he is only 6’1”. His Ole Miss scheme is a bit of a negative for me as well as is the fact he barely meets any of Parcell’s criteria.
Kenny Pickett - His accuracy is probably the best of this bunch and I think he is deceptively athletic (aka athletic white guy), but I think playing at Pitt has caused him to see ghosts and leave the pocket too quickly even through it is a pro-style offense. I love that he is a 4yr starter and got better as the years went on, but I wonder if his Senior season (which was great) may be more of a factor of a really down ACC year. The two gloves this is funky, but the dude has been playing in Pittsburgh which is not known for it’s great weather.
Malik Willis - He can throw the ball a mile and that is wonderful, but has anyone watched his actual games. I have heard the comparisons to Lamar Jackson and that is lazy to me. Lamar came from pro style offense that asked him to do multi level reads, Willis is a run first player in Liberty’s spread scheme. I do not think he will be able to process NFL Defenses (look at his struggles against Syracuse) quickly enough, he is only 6’, I do not think he is accurate enough and I would not want my team drafting him as high as he is going to go.
NFL Draft Bets
This is the first set of action for me in the 2022-2023 NFL season and I am excited to get them in and for us to hopefully start cashing tickets. These bets will be tracked and included in my results for this upcoming season.
As always, these are based off of the lines currently posted on either BetOnline or Bovada at the time of publishing.
I am going to start with about 8u of capital:
1.175u on Under 3.5 QB’s taken in the 1st round -235
I do not believe all these mocks that say all these QBs are going early. I figure Willis athleticism will get someone to buy in and then I always think some team(s) from the top of the 2nd will hop up into the back end of the 1st to grab a guy and get that 5th year option.
1u on Garrett Wilson under 10.5 -200
0.875u on Kenny Pickett over 10.5 -175
0.7u on Jordan Davis over 15.5 -140
0.65u on Desmond Ridder under 29.5 -130
0.65u on Kenyon Green under 27.5 -130
0.65u on John Metchie III over 59.5 -1303
0.55u on Charles Cross over 7.5 -110
0.55u on Garrett Wilson 1st WR taken -110
0.5u on George Karloftis under wilson20.5 +115
0.3u on Tyler Smith under 32.5 -120
0.25u on Evan Neal 1st OL taken +155
As we get closer to the draft I may have a few more picks and those will be sent out in another post AND added here so you have a one stop place for all the action.
Yes, you can throw this in my face later when I am wrong about Malik Willis
Be a three-year starter
Be a senior in college
Graduate from college
Start 30 games
Win 23 games
Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Complete at least 60% of passes thrown
Limits are low and this is one I would do more on if I could