Okay, first it is hard not to address what we all witnessed Monday night. That was as scary and as horrific as anything any of us have seen on a field of sports. As someone who happened to be watching the soccer matches when both Fabrice Muamba and Christian Eriksen had their cardiac events and has zero medical training, my immediate thought was that it looked scarily similar, and Hamlin would need a miracle.
I figure you all were as shaken as I was and while I had written 90% of what is below late Sunday night / early Monday morning, I really just didn’t want to finish or send it until we had some news, one way or the other.
That news came today and has been incredibly positive (Thank God and those medical professionals)!! That said, he has a long road ahead and please also pray for his teammates and the Bengals will all be undoubtedly deeply affected by what they witnessed in person and the other NFL players who somehow have to put that out of their minds this weekend.
I am still not sure what will happen with that last game so I am putting what I know based on my books at the time of writing this (Thursday Morning).
Again, just a reminder there will be no Week 18 newsletter this week as most of the games do not mean anything and we will be back for the playoffs!
Futures Check in
Here are the futures that we have open that will be decided in Week 18- and how I am feeling about them:
Aaron Rodgers under 4100.5 passing yards - With one game to play Rodgers is at 3,490 yards which means he would have to throw for over 610 yards in his final game for us to lose the ticket (the NFL record is 554) - while they need the game and the Lions D sucks, I feel pretty confident he won’t set a new NFL record
Russell Wilson under 4050.5 passing yards - With one game to play Wilson is at 3,241 yards which means he would have to throw for over 809 yards in his final game for us to lose the ticket (the NFL record is 554) - Yeahhhhhhh, I am going to call this a W
Zeke Elliott over 900.5 rushing yards - With one game to play Elliott is at 866 yards which means he need him to run for at least 35 yards in his final game for us to win the ticket - I felt really good a couple weeks ago, but I worry about their running him into a brick wall again this week and if the Eagles / NYG game gets out of hand I would expect Zeke to come out of the game. Still pretty confident.
Dalton Schultz over 5.5 receiving TDs - With one game to play Schults is at 5 TDs which means he need to score once in his final game for us to win the ticket - This is going to be tight and as soon as Dak is out of the game this is not going to happen. Fingers crossed.
Trevon Digges over 4.5 INTs - With one game to play Diggs is at 3 INTs which means he needs 2 INTs in his final game for us to win the ticket - highly unlikely.
Hollywood Brown under 925.5 receiving yards - With one game to play Brown is at 702 yards which means as long as he does not go over 223 yards, we will win our ticket - My handicapping was completely wrong and we are only in this position because he got hurt, but I am feeling pretty confident we will cash this
Carolina Panthers under 6.5 wins - The Panthers are sitting on 6 wins on the season so this all comes down to their game in New Orleans this weekend. I will be keeping an eye on the line for this, but you honestly could hedge at +money if you were so inclined
Eagles to win the NFC East - For us to lose this ticket, it would require both an Eagles loss to the NY Giants (in a game that is entirely meaningless for the Giants) and a Dallas Cowboys win over Washinton. I know I am the only one who believes this, but my sources say the Giants are likely to not play any of their regular players, I think the Eagles will win easily.
Eagles to be NFC 1 Seed - A win and this is a lock, if they lose then it goes to San Fran if they win. If they both lose, then it goes to Dallas if they beat Washington. Given how EVERYONE seems to think the Giants are going to win this game, I feel pretty confident they are wrong.
Bills to have most wins - I honestly am not sure what to say here as I think this will likely be voided if they do not play the 17th game.
Ravens to win the AFC North - As of writing this, I am not sure how this will play out with the Bills/Bengals possibly not being played
Other open future picks that we are sitting on with the odds we bet and the current odds in parenthesis:
Defensive Player of the Year
0.25u on Micah Parsons +900
Win the AFC
0.5u on Buffalo Bills +350 (+180)
0.5u on KC Chiefs +600 (+225)
Win the NFC
0.25u on 49ers +900 (+190)
0.25u on Cowboys +1000 (+525)
0.25u on Eagles +1100 (+200)
0.25u on Vikings +1800 (+1200)
Win the Super Bowl
0.5u on Bills +600 (+375)
0.25u on Ravens +2000 (+3300)
0.25u on Cowboys +2000 (+1000)
0.25u on 49ers +2000 (+475)
0.25u on Eagles +2200 (+550)
0.25u on Vikings +3300 (+2500)
I do not feel great about Micah as DPOY as his play has really fallen off as he’s been banged up.
For the team futures, I honestly feel great about where we stand.
Week 17 Recap
Last week was once again not good. Not really sure what to say at this point other than we have some props that should help performance and I am hopeful turning the page to the playoffs gives us some help.
My overall performance took a small hit this week with the following futures settled:
Myles Garrett under 13.5 sacks - Loss
Saints to win the NFC South - Loss
Titans under 9 wins - Win