NFL Player Prop Futures
The NFL regular season gets under way 6 weeks from tomorrow and all NFL teams have officially started training camp!!!! I really am so excited for this NFL Season so I am getting this out to you even earlier than I was planning!!
Let’s have an awesome season with even more expanded content!
What to expect this season
A few things to start, if you are new to my Substack since the last NFL season you may be wondering what to expect in this space. If you are know all this, please feel free to jump down to the part where I have my methodology.
Before the season starts, I will have the following newsletters out:
Player futures (this newsletter)
Season Preview - week of Aug 15
Team Futures / Fantasy players to watch1 - Aug 29 or 30 aka the days after the final preseason game
Each week you should expect 2-3 NFL posts:
Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning - Recap of the prior week’s action2, my pick / bets for Thursday night football and DFS players to watch
Friday Afternoon - My LONG Friday picks column (will look something like this)
Sunday morning - maybe a couple more parlay / teasers and possibly DFS and any updates if something like COVID comes up
Last year included my move to Substack which allowed me to expand my content past just model picks to game by game analysis, DFS, parlays and teasers and resulted in having a very profitable season where we netted close to 35u of profit.
As you can see from my full season recap that path to big profits is never straight, but we locked in a 10.1% ROI on a per bet basis and an approx. 35% ROI on a season basis.
I hope you will join me for this season as I am hopeful it will be a blast and if you are willing, make sure to check out my quick survey where you can help me design what this will look like!!
NFL Futures - My Methodology
Before we get into picks let’s chat futures betting. One thing you must keep in mind with futures betting is capital allocation. Yes, I know that sounds like fancy financier speak, but it is a relatively simple concept.
If you adhere to the 1% per unit bankroll methodology that means you have 100 units to play with for the year. If you allocate 50 units to Futures bets that means half of your total bankroll will be unavailable to you for the next 6 months. Where that can cause you problems is if you have a cold streak and you do not have any cash left over to dig your way out of the hole.
When I do my personal futures wagering I try to keep the amount risked under 25u and preferably under 20u. This may be too much for some so if that feels like too much for you just simply half all the risk I take and then you will be in the 10u - 12.5u range.
Let’s talk betting amounts. For the purposes of my model, please note that it will still be based on $100/unit. As I have talked in the past about effective bankroll management, I have had profits so personally my units will be more than that3. That said, please be assured I will never bet LESS than what I put in my picks columns and, most importantly, please please please please only bet what YOU can afford.
There is no shame in having a bankroll of $1,000 and betting $10/unit (or less). We all start somewhere and the best way to build your bankroll is slow and steady.
NFL Player Prop Futures
Okay, enough stalling. These are based off my personal predictions for how the season will go for each player and I have included brief explanations for each.
Offensive Players (Risk 0.5u for each):
Aaron Rodgers under 4100.5 Passing Yards -120 - This one should not be super surprising. I expect this passing offense to take a step backwards without Adams there any longer. Look, Rodgers is still amazing and they have two good running backs, but he threw for 4,115 last year and that included 1,553 from Adams.
Jameis Winston over 3700.5 passing yards -105 - I might be alone on this island but I love me some Jameis and I am buying him being healthy and the Saints making noise in the NFC South.
Russell Wilson under 4050.5 passing yards -115 - I know this is going to put me in a minority and not to sound too much like Bill Simmons, but “Are we sure Russell Wilson is still good?” We have seen over time that small guys get hurt and then their play falls off and never really comes back. He looks terrible last year and he hasn’t really used his legs in a couple years. Pair that with the fact I think they hand the ball off a bunch so put me in the camp of I need to see it to believe it with Russell Wilson on the Broncos.
Matt Ryan over 24.5 Passing TD’s -125 - Carson Wentz is not a good QB and he threw for 27 TD’s with the Colts last year. As Warren Sharp4 rightly points out, Matt Ryan is a way more accurate Wentz. Then let’s pile on top of it that the Colts play in possibly the worst division in football and the NFC division they get to play is likely the 2nd worst division in football.
Ezekiel Elliot over 900.5 yards rushing -105 - Another I will believe when I see it is the cowboys using Tony Pollard in an effective manner to take the load off Zeke. Preseason is the ultimate “He is in the best shape of his life” nonsense, but folks I speak to within the Star tell me Zeke looks fantastic and has a burst he hasn’t had in a while.
Christian McCaffrey under 1450.5 rushing and receiving +115 - Okay let’s talk about two things why I like this play. 1) Can McCaffrey stay healthy? I am not sure. If he get’s hurt and misses significant time, he is not going anywhere near this number. 2) The Panthers are going to be really bad. There offense could easily be the worst in the NFL and do not forget they play in a division with two of the top defenses in the NFL and get to play the NFC West and AFC North this year. Lots of good defenses there.
Dalton Schultz over 5.5 receiving TDs -115 - Dalton is Dak’s security blanket and with Dak not running as much as he used to (I wish he would) I expect much of Amari Cooper’s redzone targets to go to Schultz and that is also taking into account that he already had 8 TDs last year!
Marquise Brown under 925.5 receiving yards - 115 - Spoiler Alert, I am going to be out on the Cards this year. I think we will see their normal end of season struggles happen earlier this year as I think they have some good / tough games early and when Kyler gets knocked around the wheels fall off the bus.
Defensive Players (Risk 0.5u for each):
Aaron Donald over 11.5 sacks -105 - Okay, maybe I am a sucker, but can someone explain this line to me?!? The last 4 season Donald has had 20.5, 12.5, 13.5, and 12.5 sacks. Do we think he is getting worse?!? I do not.
Brian Burns over 9 sacks -115 - I bet this bet last year when it was 8 and won it with 3 games to go. He is fantastically talented and while that team might not win a ton of games, I expect him to clear this number.
Micah Parsons over 11.5 sacks -115 - Call me a cowboys homer all you want but he is a freak of nature.
Myles Garrett under 13.5 sacks -115 - I do not like giving up this much juice but I do not see him playing all 17 games again nor do I see Clowney being nearly as effective on the other side to help get this to what it was last year.
Trevon Diggs over 4.5 INTs -125 - The guy had 11 picks last year and gets to play games against Daniel Jones (twice), Carson Wentz (twice), Goff, Fields, Mills, Lawrence, Tannehill and Hurts (twice), not to mention his penchant for giving up big plays means QB’s will still test him.
Player Awards (Risk 0.25u for each):
Micah Parson Defensive Player of the Year +900 - He should have won it last year.
Jameis Winston Comeback Player of the Year +425 - see explanation above
Skyy Moore Offensive Rookie of the Year +10005 - This kid is fantastic and really in the KC system should shine. I also do not think the QB’s will play much or do that well and then it becomes and open competition so give me the WR with Mahomes throwing him the ball
Lamar Jackson MVP +2000 - this is just too much value to pass up as I think he is incredible and I think they are poised to have a big season. His team was incredibly banged up last year and they will have a big year this year and I expect him to have a lot of support.
This will be my view on who is being over rated and under rated going into the fantasy draft season. I will also give you my personal tips and tricks for being a successful full season fantasy player
I used to do this as a separate post each week, but I know now that we have golf and will eventually have NBA I do not want to load your inbox with my posts. I will commit to posting a tweet on Tuesday with the stats (I will call it a mini recap) so that you can see it then with the full recap as part of this post each week.
I debated even putting this in here as it sounds like bragging but I believe in #transparency and if / when folks as to see tickets that I place I do not want folks surprised if my amounts are different (for example if I do $200 per unit).
I have been pretty vocal on Twitter that while I like much of Warren Sharp’s analysis and has preview book is fantastic, I know for a fact his betting record is not what he claims it to be (I saw all his picks last year including J Taylor under rushing yards) and I think a lot of the fake persona he has created is bs.
I bet this a while ago when it was 16-1 but it is currently 10-1 so that is what I will use to track it