NFL Season Predictions / QB Rankings
We are getting ohhhhh soooo much closer!!! This is a new bit of content I wanted to roll out this year which is my season preview for how I think this season will go for each division and what they playoffs will look like.
NOTE!!!!! I reserve the right to change some of these opinions (mostly driven on a big injury) by the time I do my futures picks in a couple weeks so this is just a bit of fun content for football junkies out there
My NFL QB Ranking
Every year Mike Sando over at the Athletic puts out an amazing column where he does QB Tiers based on interviews with NFL execs. I highly recommend reading it, but it got me thinking and chatting with some folks about what my QB rankings ao soooooo here are my thoughts.
First and foremost NFL QB rankings are dumb, but a fun exercise and something that ultimately does effect the gambling I will do this season as sometimes it will come down to “who has the best QB”. One of the things I really like about Sando’s is that he breaks the QB’s into tiers and I think that is absolutely the right way to do it.
Each Tier will be “Tier # - my definition - a little bit about the tier”. Enjoy!
Tier 1 - The elite of the elite who can and do win by themselves and have proven that over the years - My list is a group of who are HOF’ers and you wouldn’t trade them for anything.
Mahomes
Rodgers
Brady
Tier 2 - Elite, but I have a question - These guys can win on their own and take over the game and guys some include in Tier 1, but I think there I need to see more - These two are both athletic marvels and I would not at all be shocked if they make the jump to Tier 1 but I have a key question for each.
Allen - His jump 2 years ago was fantastic, but before I put him in Tier 1 I would like to see him do it with Daboll
Herbert - Look, I am biased here - I have loved him since his Oregon days. He is unreal and in his two years he has had to fully different coaching staffs so I am interested to see how he grows, BUT they need to win more games. Short of something wild happening I expect him to be in my Tier 2 for a couple years.
Tier 3 - Really Good - These are guys who absolutely win games for their teams, but do need support around them and / or may have a flaw - These guys are dudes their teams really should have no problem paying big contracts.
Lamar - Once again I am hopelessly biased here, I have loved Lamar going back to his Louisville days. I do not get the hate he gets. Is he the best passer in the world? No, but the guy is 37-12 in his career and his passing is way better than he gets credit for. I think he is prime for an amazing season.
Wilson - This one is hard for me because I find everything about Wilson to be pretty odd. Was the last 18 months because he was hurt or beat up after years of getting pummeled behind a crap OL or was it more of just the end of the marriage with a HC (e.g., Rodgers with McCarthy)? What do we make of they offense they were running? Every time he “cooked” things got weird. When he got to pick his OC things were terrible. I could see him move back to Tier 1 or down to Tier 4.
Dak - He is just so unbelievably solid and consistent. Very good, but not great. As a cowboys fan I would love to see Dak move up, but I do think it is likely. One thing to note with Dak is he has shown steady improvement until last year. Did he hit his peak / plateau or did he need more time to heal from his ankle / shoulder injuries? Is he willing to get back to running a few times a game? One interesting tidbit I got from a contact in Dallas was that his personal QB coach actually spent last year helping the Jets after their QB coach Greg Knapp tragically died just over year ago. It will be interesting to see how his return helps.
Burrow - If he does what he did last year again then I will move him up to Tier 2, but I just want to see it again. He is a freaking tough dude and he takes a beating. I am worried about injuries and I am worried about how fluky their run to the SB seemed. I am prepared to be wrong, but I think they take a small step back this year before pushing on next year.
Watson - The next time he steps on the field will be the first time he has played in almost 2 years. My personal opinions aside about what is alleged, he was a fantastic QB when he was playing, but I think folks seem to just forget his last full season (he played all 16 games) his team only went 4-12.
Tier 4 - Good but there is a flaw - These are QBs that are solid / decent, but if I was their GM I would not be super excited - These are QBs where the teams are or should start to debate whether there is a real future with this person or should they be looking for the next guy
Stafford - Yes his team just won the super bowl and he is / has been wildly talented, but how much was him and how much was his team / HC. Remember, this is a team that got to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff as QB! One fun stat to note, if you look at EPA numbers his offense in the playoffs was one of the worst ever to win the super bowl and his defense was one of the best.
Carr - I think he is underrated and I might be too tough on him. He probably should be in Tier 3 and me having him in Tier 4 is my personal bias, but if I have money bet against the Raiders I am never really that worried and if I bet on the Raiders, I am always a little nervous and a lot of that has to do with Carr.
Murray - I know they just handed him a huge contract and I personally think that was a giant mistake. He is tiny and gets hurt every year and as soon as he get nicked up a little his play falls off drastically. This is all before we get into the fact by all accounts he is note a great teammate and he is not a hard worker (did you see that clause in his contract?!? YIKES!)
Cousins - Similar to Carr, this is a guy who I feel like gets a little too much shit. If you were to ask me to sum up Cousins in 2 words I would say “very fine”. As you will see below, I think they are a talented team that will have a big year, but do not think for a moment I am not terrified of Cousins in every big spot
Ryan - The reason Matty Ice is here vs the tier above comes down to age. He is still a good QB but it is clear that his skills are diminishing, especially his arm strength. How many year can he give the Colts of high level play? I fear it might be only a couple so if I was in that front office I might be thinking about a QB in the top two rounds of the 2023 draft
Jimmy G - Why does everyone hate Jimmy G? Yes, they ran a weird offense last year and it is not good that his organization traded up like that for a new QB, but am I crazy to think he is a league avg QB?
Tier 5 - I don’t know what to do with you (I am going to start to be briefer on all of these)
Tennehill - I am really interested to see what he does without AJ Brown, but I like that they drafted Willis to sit an learn.
Mac Jones - I want to see more. Are we at the ceiling already?
Jalen Hurts - A worse Kyler Murray with WAY better work ethic and it factor
Lawrence / Fields / Wilson - I am not giving up on you.
Baker - Is there a reason he shouldn’t spend the next 8 years being a rent-a-qb?
Jameis - Would I be surprised if the Saints make the playoffs? No. Would I be surprise if the Saints pick in the top 8 next year? No.
Tier 6 - We are in trouble
Wentz - A QB who has taken a beating, doesn’t like to be coached, and makes awful mistakes in big moments? HARD PASS
Goff - I am sure he is a nice guy, but he has been and continues to be a one read QB.
Tua - Sorry, I am out on him. I do not see it and think he is too banged up.
Mills - He had a good year last year, but I do not think he is very good
Daniel Jones / Mitch Trubisky - They are the epitome of what folks who do not like Lamar say about him - athletic, can’t throw, can’t play QB.
Lance - I need to see it before I believe it because what I have seen is not good
Mariota / Drew Lock - The Falcons and Seahawks appear to be actively trying to lose and they picked them to be their QB’s
NFL Predictions
Here are my predictions for this season, including a little bit on every team- I AM NOT BETTING THESE YET, but rather sharing my thoughts as they stand right now so these are subject to change and I will cover my final picks and bets in about 2 weeks.
Division Winners:
AFC North - Baltimore Ravens - While I do like what the Bengals did improving their offensive line, I think they are going to take a step back as I am not sure their offense can replicate that performance. Give me Lamar, in a contract year, with a team that was one of the most injured teams last year and still barely had a scoring deficit. I know some folks like the Browns here, but IF Watson plays (that’s a big if) he wouldn’t have played in almost 2 years so sorry if I am not entirely buying it. Mike Tomlin might be the best coach in the NFL and he is going to need to be because his team looks BAD.
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts - I think Tennessee takes a big step back and Matt Ryan is going to make the Colts much more potent through the air, for at least this year. I also do not think Tennehill is very good. While Jacksonville and Houston should be more competitive game to game than they were, I would expect both to be picking in the top 10 in late April - though I would not be SHOCKED if Jacksonville takes a big step up.
AFC East - Buffalo Bills - I think we are going to be surprised by the Pats in this division, but I believe in what the Bills are doing. While I worry about Daboll leaving, I think they have kept enough continuity to keep going. Dolphins and Pats are one of the areas I keep going back and forth. I know there is a lot of noise coming from the NE camp about the OC’s and I am worried, but I trust in Bill. We will see if Tua is for real as he now has maybe the best WR corp in the NFL and I think we will find him wanting as he is not an accurate QB and his arm isn’t the best. I have a feeling it is going to be a lot of short passes to Waddle, Hill and Wilson and hoping they break tackles. J-E-T-S SUCK SUCK SUCK! I think Saleh is a sneaky first coach fired pick.
AFC West - LA Chargers - This is the best division in football and I love me some Justin Herbert. While I think Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL I worry what that offense will look like without Tyreek to take the top off defenses. Vegas should be a good team and I love adding Adams. Denver should be good but I honestly am not buying Wilson stock as I am going to need to see Wilson get back to the guy he was before the last 1.5 season. Also the Tim Patrick injury is a problem.
NFC North - Minnesota Vikings - I really like the Vikings this year and I believe getting away from Zimmer is going to give them a real shot in the arm. You doubt Aaron Rodgers at your own peril, but his WR room is NOT good and he is saying as much publicly now. While I think there are things to like about both the Bears (Fields) and Lions (how hard they play), they are both at real talent deficits.
NFC South - TB Bucs - As long as Brady stays healthy TB should walk to the division title, but that is not a given. The thing with Brady is that he doesn’t like pressure up the middle since Pollard tore his knee up, well Marpet retired (like I predicted), Cappa is with the Bengals and Jensen is done for the year. Adding Shaq Mason is huge but still something to watch here. I think the Saints will be better than most people as I am a Jameis believer and their D should be top notch - might be a team we need to keep an eye on. Carolina and Atlanta are going to be terrible.
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles - I really went back and forth between the Cowboys and the Eagles and I might go back again. I think the Cowboys have taken a little bit of a step backwards in talent, no team has repeated as NFC Champs since 2004, and I am really concerned about the Cowboys offensive line and WR room. That said Dak >> Hurts, Eagles D wasn’t good last year, and I expect the Eagles to have more struggles running the Oklahoma offense this year so I expect Eagles to win the division but it will be close. We have seen the Carson Wentz show and I am glad it is back in the division. Sorry Giants fans but Daniel Jones is not Josh Allen and your skills players are not good - Could you get to 8 wins? sure, but that is because your schedule is easy. Do not be shocked when you see both Dallas and Philly overs when I get to my wagers as they are getting 6 games each that they should win (2x NYG, 2x Washington, Jax, and Houston).
NFC West - LA Rams - I think this division is wildly overrated. We all know Seattle is going to suck (Geno Smith and Drew Lock aren’t good), but what about San Fran and the Cards? Well San Fran seems to be all in on the idea of starting Trey Lance, and I might look like asshole in a few months, but do we really think he is ready? I do NOT. As for the Cardinals, they usually start hot then Kyler gets dinged up and Kliff doesn’t change his system and their performance falls apart. I think that happens earlier this as this team has a hard early schedule and no Nuk Hopkins.
Playoffs (AS OF NOW - can be updated when I get to wagers in a couple weeks):
AFC Playoff Seeds:
Buffalo Bills
LA Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
NE Patriots
KC Chiefs
Cinci Bengals
NFC Playoff Seeds:
TB Bucs
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
LA Rams
Dallas Cowboys
GB Packers
New Orleans Saints