Happy Friday!!! It felt like we would never make it here, but the NFL season gets into full swing this week. As you may know, each week I send out this long newsletter where I try to give you everything I am using to analyze that week’s NFL games and make my bets.
This newletter can get rather long and I implore you to read the full thing, or at least the full write-up of the game you are interested in betting. That said, for those who only care about the bets I do bold my picks / bets for each game.
Four things to keep in mind before we get into this week’s picks:
Every year weeks 1 and 2 give us some results that we will look back on at the end of the season and ask “WTF was that” (remember 2 years ago when Jacksonville beat Indy in Week 1 and then didn’t win another game all season?) so all of us, including me, have to not overreact to the things we see this week or next week.
My model always likes to take the points in the early weeks and this season appears to be no different1! Hopefully the success it has had in the past continues. An interesting related note - home underdogs in division matchups in Week 1 are 16-7 straight up, 19-4 against the spread since 2009!
I know we are all HYPED for Week 1 and, just like you, I am REALLLLLY excited for it…..That said, it is a LONG season and there are a LOT of games left to bet so PLEASE be responsible with how much you bet this week, and really every week. It is realllllly easy to get overly excited and go overboard with your action. You will see in in my personal picks that I am keeping things pretty tight this week so make sure you are allocating your bankroll appropriately2!
A lot of these games are going to be played in hot and humid weather. Expect that these games are going to get a bit weird late as guys get tired, especially if the game involves team that have not been practicing in the heat during training camp.
One last point, I know these get super long each week (you should see how long they take me to put together) so some of the less important stuff that I personally find interesting /funny or are sources for my material end up in the footnotes or as links so if you are a super star student, check those out too!
Alright, Let’s get to it!
Reminder: All units quoted below are the amount TO RISK.
Week 1
Game 1: Bills @ Rams (Thursday 8:20pm) - 0.5u Loss
Game 2: Saints @ Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stat that might matter - As a head coach Dennis Allen’s record is 8-28.
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Atlanta +5.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - I know I might be the only one, but I am really interested to see how this game plays out. I am a believer in the Saints and as you saw in my Futures newsletter, I think they actually make the playoffs and there is an outside change they win their division, BUTTTTT if you think I am not terrified of hitching my wagon that QB and Head Coach combo you are sorely mistaken. On the other side, this is a team that looks destined for a top 5 pick and I wonder how long it is before Ridder is starting. If I were Arthur Smith I would be home spending my dad's money....haha3. In all seriousness, if I were Arthur Smith, I would look to get Ridder some meaningful game time and do it early. Ridder was my #1 QB in this draft class so I’s want to know whether I have a future starter on my hands or if I am drafting one at the top of next year’s draft, in what looks like a pretty loaded QB class.
Verdict - I am going to pass as I want to sit back and see how this plays out even if this is a divisional home dog.
Game 3: 49ers @ Bears (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Weather Report - The high will only be low 70’s at this should be breezy and rainy
Stat that might matter - Justin Fields is 0-4 straight up and against the spread as a home underdog
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Chicago +7 (-115)
My 2 cents - I have been open about my love for Justin Fields so I am biased, but I am terrified they are going to ruin him in Chicago. That team looks really bad and he is going to get hurt behind that leaky OL so I worry about him specifically against this defense that is reallllly well coached. That said, I am really unsure about Trey Lance. While I know the stat nerds love him, I just need see it and see it a bunch before I buy in on this team with him at QB, no Offensive Coordinator, and a QB coach who has never coached before.
Verdict - I am just not sure I can back the Bears here as I think the San Fran D is going to be a huge problem for the Bears and the weather will play into their running attack so pass.
Game 4: Steelers @ Bengals (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Mike Tomlin became Steelers Head Coach in 2007 and has never had a losing season in his career and he did all this while also being a celebrated doctor at Princeton Plainsboro Teaching Hospital4.
Super Bowl losers are 4-18 against the spread and 9-13 straight up in Week 1 the last 22 years.
Steelers are 47-26-3 (19-6-2 vs AFC North opponents) against the spread as an underdog under Mike Tomlin
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Steelers +6.5
My 2 cents - I think the Steelers are in for a rough season, but I have found that betting against Mike Tomlin is a great way to lose money. I personally think he is the best coach in the NFL and if he keeps this team from a losing season then he should be enshrined in Canton this offseason. I do not like Mitch Trubisky and didn’t think highly of him at UNC, but Big Ben was so bad that he is actually an upgrade at this position.
Verdict - In Tomlin I trust, give me the 6.5 points.
Game 5: Eagles @ Lions (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Goff is 5-0 against the spread in Week 1 in his career
In 2021-22 the Lions went 3-13-1, but 11-6 against the spread!
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Lions sucked last year, but also somehow were super competitive! The Eagles are the big hot sexy pick in the NFC so can someone explain to me why are the Eagles only favored by 4? Am I the only one who finds this line SUPER fishy? Why aren’t the Eagles 6 to 7 point favorites here?? Is it just the Hard Knocks bump for the Lions?!? For whatever it is worth, my model thinks this line should be 4 so the half point is within my margin of error. One way to bet this game is a player prop as I think AJ Brown’s Receiving Yards line is way low.
Verdict - Too fishy for me. Pass.
Come hang out and chat!!
A group of gamblers and I have set up a new discord server for folks to come hang out and chat and it is called:
Gamblers Paradise has a mission statement that is different than all the other Gambling discords so please check it out!
I hope you will come join us!
Game 6: Patriots @ Dolphins (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Weather Report - It is going to be hot and humid with heat up to 100 degrees
Stat that might matter - The pats are 2-7 in their last 9 trips to Miami, while being 7-2 in their last 9 home games against the Phins.
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Patriots +3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I have to be honest, my initial projections had the Patriots as a really good team and everything I have seen / read/ heard about that offense isn’t bad. It is house on fire BAD. The flip side is that I do not like Tua. I am just not in on him. I know Warren Sharp LOVES Tua and he might end up being right.. I know there are media personalities out there who are pushing this as a big bell weather game but both these teams might be bad to mediocre and I am taking a wait and see approach as you can't lose money that you don't risk. That said I think I love Mike McDaniel5.
Verdict - I know my model likes the Pats and it is tempting with the hook and given it is only a half unit I am going to ride Pats +3.5 even though I do not like the Patriots in that heat / humidity. I will use the Pats in exotics to get some leverage.
Game 7: Ravens @ Jets (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Jets have the joint lowest number of wins the last 5 years with a record of 22-59 while the Ravens have the 6th best record at 52-29
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on NYJ +7 (-115)
My 2 cents - I know there was a lot of hand waving going on by the Jets about who will start, but now we know it is Flacco. The Jets are going to be at a huge disadvantage when it comes to talent between these two teams. The Ravens should smash them, but the thing that is keeping me from pushing some chips into the middle is that I realllllllllly don’t understand what the Ravens are rolling out at WR. Good golly they are bad.
Verdict - The model says Jets, my brain says Ravens, I will pass on spread bets but will look to use the Ravens in exotics.
Game 8: Jaguars @ Washington6 (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stat that might matter - Trevor Lawrence is 2-6 against the spread on the road in his NFL career
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Okay, I am going to be honest - I really hope that I do not have to watch a minute of this game. Sure, I am interested to see if the Jags can shake off the stench that was Urban Meyer, but neither of these teams interest me in any meaningful way. On the other side, we have seen the Wentz story before and it is has been not good for a long time.
Verdict - Pass, but I am going with a bit of Jags resurgence in exotics
Game 9: Browns @ Panthers (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Weather Report - From AccuWeather “Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; a rain jacket may be needed for the football game”
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cleveland pick’em (-110)
My 2 cents - The Baker Mayfield Derby7! I know the Panthers are a sexy pick by a lot of people to be sneaky good and even challenge for a playoff spot, but I am so confused by that. It is like folks saw the 3-0 start last year and think that is what you are really getting rather than the other 14 games where they went 2-14. Yes, that teams is better when CMC is healthy and in the lineup, but how long will that last? He is ALREADY nursing a cut shin! Also, I think Baker is underrated and he was so physically compromised last year that there will be some bounce back, but can he stay healthy with the punishment he takes week in and week out? I am not so sure….For this week - Do I expect Browns to run it down the Panthers' throats? Yes. Can the Panthers block the Browns defensive front? I do not thinks so.
Verdict - Going with my model Cleveland pk
Game 10: Colts @ Texans (Sunday 1:00pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Over the last 8 years the Colts are 0-8 in Week 1
Since 2008, Colts are 1-12-1 against the spread in Week 1
Davis Mills is 5-6 against the spread as a starter
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Texans +7 (-105)
My 2 cents - Look, I know I am super high on the Colts, but this Texans team is SUPER frisky. Do I think Colts break their 8 year Week 1 duck8 ? Yes I do. Will I be careful using them in parlays or as a survivor pick this week? Yes I will. Will I be surprised at all if Colts are up 13 and Davis Mills scores a TD with 30 seconds left to cover? NOT AT ALL.
Verdict - Give me the Texans plus the points as I think the back door is WIDE open here and I like the home dog in the division matchup.
Game 11: Giants @ Titans (Sunday 4:25pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Remember above when I said the Jets had the joint worst record in the NFL over the last 5 years, would you believe it if I told you the other team is the one they share a stadium with? Giants are also 22-59!
Titanic Model Output - 1u NYG +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I do not like Daniel Jones and I didn’t like him at Duke. I thought the Giants were making a mistake when it was rumored they were going to take him with their 17th pick 2019 NFL Draft. Well they didn’t take him at 17, they took him at 6. WOOOOOF. So you are probably reading this and saying “cool, we are on the Titans”. As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friend”!!!! I am completely out on Tennessee this year and that is almost entirely due to their offense. Losing AJ Brown is a really big problem for them as his gravitational pull opened things up significantly and how much punishment can Henry take and keep going? I think he is going to get hurt again this year as they rely on him too much and he takes such punishment. Do not forget that Daboll had a great game plan vs the Titans last year.
Verdict - I am going with Giants +5.5 but for a half unit as the Giants interior OL scares me a little bit vs the Titans DT’s.
Game 12: Packers @ Vikings (Sunday 4:25pm) -
Stat that might matter9 -
Last year the Packers faced 8 rookie, backup or injured QB’s and they went 8-0 in those games. They went 5-5 in their other 10 games (including the playoffs)
Packers are 7-7 against the spread away from home
Vikings are 7-2 against the spread as a home underdog
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Vikings +1.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know I just said there will be some wild results that won’t make sense when we get to the end of the season, but doesn’t this feel like a really big game? Rodgers is still trying to figure out that new WR situation and are we really supposed to beleive they will be a run first offense? On the Vikings side, it really worries me that they are everyone’s sleeper team. They should be a good team and this is one of the few venues that really does provide a true home field advantage (32-17 home record since 2016) - as Super Bowl winning former NFL Scout Bryan Broaddus always say “you know something bad happened when you hear that horn and it is usually that they are peeling your QB off the turf. Further Packers might be without Jenkins and Bakhtiari on the OL, and if they play, they will be compromised.
Verdict - I am going with my model and taking the Vikings as I think Packers will start a little slow and I worry about communication with the WR corp in a loud environment and I like the home dog in the division.
Game 13: Chiefs @ Cardinals (Sunday 4:25pm) -
Stat that might matter -
The Chiefs are 14-2 in Weeks 1-4 with Mahomes at QB
Under Kliff Kingsbury, Weeks 1 through 8 the Cards are 3rd EPA per play, after Week 8 they are 19th10
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Cardinals +6.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I think this is a super interesting game. I am really interested to see how Mahomes looks with this new WR core and this continually improving OL. I think giving him time could be scary. That said, Arizona always look quite good early in the season until Kyler gets dinged up and his play falls off a Kliff (see what I did there). Look we should not look past how bad Kyler’s numbers have been in the past without Nuk Hopkins in the lineup, but often that is after he gets nicked up and dealing with Kliff’s stale offense. This seems like it should be super high scoring, but I wonder if the under hits like it did Thursday night.
Verdict - I think I am going to go with my model as the Chiefs D always seems to struggle early and Kliff hasn’t been found out.
Game 14: Raiders @ Chargers (Sunday 4:25pm) -
Stat that might matter - Raiders scored late to end the Chargers season in Week 18 last year when a tie would have seen them both make the playoffs.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Raiders +3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - This is a banger of game for week 1 and might be the one I am most looking forward to. I think I am a bit higher on the Raiders than most folks and more down on the Chargers than most folks, especially their defense. This game seems like it should be a shoot out. I am also super interested to see McDaniels11 running this Raiders offense. I know folks don’t like Josh Jacobs as a fantasy RB, but I do because McDaniels have always liked running the ball and won’t get bored doing it. Do note forget that last year the Patriots ran the ball down the Chargers throats so Jacobs props and DFs is something I will be exploring.
Verdict - I am taking the Raiders +3.5 and money line as the Raiders will actually have the home field advantage at SoFi and I am going to need to see a drastically improved Chargers D before I believe in that team AND they will be without JC Jackson in this game.
Game 15: Buccaneers @ Cowboys (Sunday 8:20pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Dak Prescott has a 79% completion percentage against Tampa Bay. That is the highest of ANY quarterback against ANY team in NFL history (min 100 attempts).
Dak is 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread at home in primetime
Tom Brady is 6-0 straight up versus the Cowboys in his career
Since they have been teammates, Mike Evans has scored a TD in every game Chris Godwin has missed
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Dallas +2.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - I know talking OG/C/ DT is not sexy but I think this is going to come down to how these beleaguered offensive lines are able to hold up and honestly I am not sure either of them will be able to hold up very well. The Bucs DT’s are well known and they are beasts facing a soft Cowboys OL, but TB lost most of their middle OL from last year and then they got hit by injuries. Both teams also boast really good LB groups so the OL’s ability to get to that second level and sustain blocks will be huge.
Verdict - I will be on my Cowboys as Dak is REALLY good against the blitz and Bowles loves to blitz - sure I am a homer but Sean Payton agrees with me!
Game 16: Broncos @ Seahawks (Monday 8:15pm) -
Stat that might matter - Russell Wilson is 2-8 against the spread in his last 10 primetime games.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seahawks +7 (-115)
My 2 cents - The Russell Wilson Derby!! As Bill Simmons would say “Are we sure Russell Wilson is still good?” He has been terrible the last 18 months and I know NFL Network’s Peter Schrager thinks this was really just the end of a bad marriage and Wilson getting away from Seattle will make all the difference ….Sorry, as of right now I do not buy it….BUTTTT the Seahawks look awful. I guess my model has no nose or breath because I would be holding both if I bet on Seattle this week.
Verdict - I REALLLLLLY want to bet this but the idea of betting on Geno Smith makes want to vomit so I am going to pass.
My model’s outlay - 11 units of risk (including TNF)
My personal picks outlay - 7.5 units of risk (including TNF)
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
As I mentioned above, I am going to keep the risk a bit tighter than I normally would and because I think there will be more chaos than normal, I am going to take a number of shots here to see if we can find some value. Also note I used the best odds I could get for each bet so the lines might differ from above and between the different lines:
Loss - 0.6u 6pt teasers -120 - Rams +8.5 / over 46
1u on 7pt Teaser +200 - Texans +14 / Ravens pk / Browns +7 / Raiders - Chargers O45
0.5u 6pt Teaser +151 - 49ers -0.5 / Jags +8.5 / Cowboys +8.5
0.5u Parlay +362 - Ravens -305 / Raiders +159 / 49ers -290
0.5u parlay +472 - Raiders +159 / Cowboys +121
0.25u Parlay +310 - Jaguars +115 / Browns -110
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +989 - Steelers +230 / Seahawks +230
Player Props
0.25u Trey Lance over 41 rushing yards-114
0.5u Josh Jacobs over 50 rushing yards -114
0.25 Trey Lance anytime TD +210
0.25u Mike Evans anytime TD -112
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week +1827 - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
Survivor Thoughts
To me, this first week is really hard to pick. You honestly do not know what teams will show up. As Michael Lombardi talked about on his GM Shuffle podcast earlier this week, bad teams can and do win during Week 1 and it happens regularly.
Survivor pools are different than betting so my strategy for Week 1 is to not get too cute and just pick a team where I would be SHOCKED if they lost. That removes teams like:
49ers - would you be shocked if Trey Lance is terrible in this game and they lose something like 13-7 in bad weather?
Colts - I try not to take road teams in divisional matchups and their historical Week 1 struggles scare me
Eagles - I laid it out above, but this line terrifies me and makes me think the bookies know things
Saints - Again don’t like road favs in division games and are we sure Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston are two people you want to bet your whole season on our of the gate?
My options are going to be:
Bengals - I love Mike Tomlin, but the Bengals are really good and have improved their biggest liability (O-line)
Ravens - The Ravens might have really bad WRs, but the J-E-T-S SUCK SUCK SUCK and I would not be one bit surprised if Saleh is first coach fired.
Chiefs - The stats for Kyler without Nuk Hopkins are terrible and this line has been bet up a ton. Also at some point Mahomes is going to take offense to everyone anointing Josh Allen and Justin Herbert as the best things since sliced bread.
Broncos - If this becomes a QB battle and its Russell Wilson vs Geno Smith (or Drew Lock) you have to take the one who has at least at one point in his career looked competent, right?
I am going with the Ravens as my pick for the first week
Good luck in all your action! Have a great weekend!
David Purdam from ESPN has some amazing stats about how well underdogs have performed over the last few years, including winning almost 37% of games outright last year which was tied for the highest percentage in the last 15 years.
I have said it before, and I will say it again - I believe in doing the 1% bankroll method PER SPORT. That means each unit = 1% of your bankroll for THAT sport. You can, and should, have different sized bankrolls for each sport sized by how confident you are in that sport. For example if you have a total of 10K then you could do something like 5k for NFL, 3k for NBA and 2K for the PGA Tour so your unit sizes would be 50, 30, and 20 respectively. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE bet responsibly and you can ALWAYS have less than 1% be your units.
If you are confused by this comment, Arthur Smith is the son of Frederick W. Smith. After Frederick served the United States as part of the Marine Corp he went on to start and run a company called FedEx. Yup, his dad created FedEx and is worth billions.
If you do not get this joke, I apologize as I am going to make it a bunch over the course of the season so I will explain it once here….. this is a reference to a fantastic TV show called House, MD which starred Omar Epps. I am not saying Mike Tomlin and Omar Epps are the same person, but have you ever personally seen the two of them in the same place at the same time? ME EITHER!!!! Google a picture of the two if them!
If you are not up to speed on Mike McDaniel, he is the 39 year old head coach of the Miami Dolphins who might be the best quote in the NFL. Seriously. The guy is AMAZING.
While Dan Snyder owns the team I will not use their nickname. He is a blight on the NFL.
If you are unfamiliar with the concept of a derby - in short it is a soccer term to talk about matches played by local rivals, but it can be used in other ways. This is a good detailed explainer
This is a cricket term
Thank you to the ever amazing Pam Maldonado of Yahoo Sportsbook for some of these stats
Got this stat from the Ringer’s Raheem Palmer.
Okay, this is one of my favorite things that I like to rant about……Let me take you back to 2009 when Josh McDaniels was the head coach of the Denver Broncos and he traded Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton, 2 1st round draft picks and a 3rd rounder and everyone KILLED McDaniels for it. At what point does McDaniels get to take a victory lap on that one? Look I am not saying Orton was a great or even good QB or that Josh was super successful in Denver, but Josh knew Cutler was just a big arm and a bad attitude and he clearly won that trade.