NFL Week 15 Picks and Analysis
Happy Saturday!!!
I apologize for the length of this intro, but it is important to read as it will give you a (long winded) explanation as to why the format below has changed and what to expect going forward.
Also note, I am holding my Monday and Tuesday game analysis and will send that on Monday as I want to give some time to see how will be available to play in those games.
Intro
Before I get into the full picks for this week I wanted to touch on something here that came up this week. Someone I trust and think highly of (@SlickSportsPick1 - make sure to give him a follow) brought up a good point, which was → if you look at my post from last Friday / Monday you will see that the TitanicModel picked a 0.5u play on the Arizona Cardinals -2.5 BUT if you look at my personal analysis I said I was going to be on the Rams and I used the Rams in my exotics.
He is 100% correct. That is exactly what I did.
First, I know some people do not read my game-by-game analysis and so this is a good reason why they should. Second, I know that situation can be confusing and some may not have realized they can be different (which I had not thought about) so let me talk about my process each week as this might let you know how that can happen:
Tuesday morning - I do two things:
I load the scores from the prior week into my model to produce the performance report that I send out and close out the prior week.
I take a look at the slate of games (without seeing the lines) and I come up with an initial view of how I think the games will go and what I think a “fair” line is. This is where I start to come up with my “game by game analysis” that you see each week - note I have not run my model yet and I am already creating a view of what I think my bets will be.
Tuesday afternoon / evening or Wednesday morning - I gather the statistical information from the prior week and load that into my model as well as the initial lines for the week to get an initial look at what the action my model likes for the weekend. I then use this information to challenge my thoughts from #1.
Post Step 2 through Thursday afternoon - I gather as much information I can on injuries, weather, trends, officiating crews, etc. that may impact my personal views on these games or change my model inputs. For example, this is why you sometimes see me reference podcasts or articles that make points or use stats that I think are particularly poignant or affirm / challenge something I though.
Thursday Afternoon - I update my model for any line changes and I make start to decide the wagers I want to make for the weekend and make my Thursday pick - I would say about 30% of my wager decisions are made by this time
Between Thursday Afternoon - Friday Afternoon - I do same as I did #3 but hopefully it is more confirming what I thought rather than major changes, but in the times of COVID this can make big differences
Friday Afternoon - I update my model with any line / input changes and I make a final call on ~95% of the action I am going to place and I finish my write ups and hit send to you fine people.
Between Friday Afternoon - Sunday Morning - I do same as I did #3 but unless it is major changes this is usually uneventful, but in the times of COVID you never know
Sunday Morning - I finalize that last bit of action I was waiting on and publish again.
What I hope that shows is that my model output is a significant part of the wagers I place, but it is NOT the only thing that I take into account. That is why that there are times my write-ups show that I have a different view than what my model says I should do. Now what mostly happens is that my model will say something is a pass and I might use one of those teams in my exotics, but there are definitely times I disagree completely with my model.
That all said, I will no longer be splitting the model outputs from my write ups and instead be showing things in the following format:
Away Team @ Home Team
Titanic Model Output -
My 2 cents -
What should you do with this information? That is up to you! I intentionally do not charge for my NFL content as my goal, especially once I had this space, was to give you access to my model’s results, my personal take on games, and a window into the action I am laying, but the intention was never for the model to replace your own intellect2 or ability to critically think.
For those who use this content as intended, it will give you my model and thoughts right next to each other for your evaluation so hopefully that makes things easier. If you are one of the those who just want the model’s picks, you will have to work a little harder as you scroll to get my Titanic Model output.
Tracking on Mondays will still track what the model suggests as well as the exotics section as those are frankly the easiest things for me to track.
Game by Game analysis:
Pats @ Colts (Saturday) -
Titanic Model Output - New England +2.5 (-115) for 1u
My 2 cents - My model says to take the Pats and I am really torn. When I first sat down to do my analysis of this game I thought this was actually a bad matchup for the Pats. The Colts ability to run the ball and run it well will be a problem for the Pats, but my model is including in here is that it evaluates the Pats defense is the best in the NFL. This might end up being a pass for me personally from a side perspective. I did bet the over earlier this week @ 44. I know that is a little bit against the grain but the line movement makes me think I am on the right side.
Panthers @ Bills -
Titanic Model Output - Buffalo -13 (-105) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - This is a really high line, but good lord do the Panthers suck. What really interests me in this game is that young Cam and Josh Allen are relatively similar QB’s - very athletic, nasty in the run games and really big but inaccurate arm. Notice I said “young Cam”, he is no longer young and he can’t throw the ball anymore. Allen had a great season last year but the regression has been very noticeable this season. With a line this high you always worry about the backdoor cover, but honestly I am not sure I see how Panthers score. One last fun stat, do you know how many of the last 11 games Carolina has won where they started Cam? Exactly 0.
Cards @ Lions -
Titanic Model Output - Arizona -13 (+100) for 2u
My 2 cents - Lions suck. They do. Cards are good and coming off a loss on Monday night. I think they is going to be really bad for the Lions. Also, remember the Cards are undefeated on the road so far this season.
Jets @ Dolphins -
Titanic Model Output - Jets +9.5 (-110) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - The Dolphins renaissance has really been something, but are we impressed by who they are beating? Now, I have gone on the Jets the last few weeks with pretty mixed results and I know my model is slightly on their side but I think I am done with that.
Cowboys @ Giants -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - What is wrong with the Dallas offense and what has gotten in to that Defense?!? If you told cowboys fans before the season that going into week 15 they were 9-4 they would have said “Oh, our offense must be amazing and our D is holding up some of the time”, Well that is the exact opposite of what is happening the O is struggling, especially at RG. Now Cowboys get lucky with Leonard Williams likely missing this game as he would have been a real problems for them, but I do like the rumor they are going back to Williams at LG. Now I am hearing whispers from contracts that Toney isn’t going to play and the Giants are looking at playing Glennon AND Fromm in this game….That said this is still too high a line for me as Cowboys have shown that they will let teams come back at the end.
Titans @ Steelers -
Titanic Model Output -
My 2 cents - I like the Steelers in this spot and let me tell you why. I think their defense will stop the Titans from doing what they want to do on offense and this will be a low scoring ugly game, something like 14-10.
Texans @ Jags -
Titanic Model Output -
My 2 cents - The Jags fired Urban Meyer and the line moved in their direction by 2.5 points. That is CRAZY. That is how bad he was. Call me nuts, but I like the Jags here though I am also of the mind that they likely should not be favored by that much over anyone.
Bengals @ Broncos -
Titanic Model Output - Cinci +3 (-105) for 1u
My 2 cents - I am confused as to why the Bengals aren’t the team that is favored here and this line has actually been moving higher. The Bengals’ punt returner gave the 49ers 2 short fields last week and I do not think that is happening again. I am prepared to look really dumb when Scott Hanson throws it to back to Denver to show Broncos with the ball again.
Falcons @ 49ers-
Titanic Model Output - San Fran -9 (-110) for 1u
My 2 cents - I will be short and sweet. I LOVE the 49ers in this game. I expect them to absolutely smash the Falcons. Do not be surprised if you see the 49ers team total in my adds tomorrow.
Packers @ Ravens -
Titanic Model Output - Baltimore +6.5 (-102) for 1u
My 2 cents - I know this is going to sound weird, but I was thrilled when I saw that my model liked the Ravens with the points. I think too many people are counting out Lamar’s ability to throw from the pocket and I think Rodgers toe is really going to be a problem. The thing that gives me pause is just how banged up the Ravens secondary is.
Saints @ Bucs (SNF) -
Titanic Model Output - New Orleans +11 (-110) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - My model likes the Saints with the points, but it is barely qualifying as something it should bet. I agree though as I am not sure how TB would lose this game short of COVID sweeping through the team. While I think the Bucs are a better team, that many points and going against Kamara and a team that won’t give up leaves a big back door open.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Keeping these tight this week
1u parlay +164 for Pit -123 / SF -400 / Buf -600
2.2u 10pt parlay -110 for Buf -3 / Dal -0.5 / Ari -3 / SF +1
1u 7pt Tease +127 for Bal +13.5 / SF -2 / Cinci +10
0.5u parlay +780 for Colts -133 / Buf -600 / Dal -510 / Jax -220 / SF -400 / Bal +6.5
0.5u parlay +662 for Colts -133 / Cin +140 / Pit -123
Futures Watch:
I am adding this section which will give the status of any Futures that could be won or lost this week - Only 1 for this week
Dallas over 9 wins - Cowboys are at 9 right now so any win in their last 3 games gets us the W
Good luck in all your action! See you back here tomorrow with a couple adds and some DFS!
Ben Franklin is credited with saying “If we are all thinking alike, no one is thinking”. That is very true and I want to give a thank you to all the people who send me feedback or ask me questions about my content. My first post was on Oct 5th and the questions and feedback have made my content so much better so please continue to send it, via email or twitter DM. Slick is another content provider and for him to take time out of producing his own content to share his constructive feedback with me just shows how great of a person he is!
As I like to say in my working life “My parents taught me to critically think, so I like to do it”