NFL Week 17 Sunday Update!!

Happy Sunday!!!

Given that it is the first Sunday of 2022 and still New Year’s Weekend, I wanted to give everyone a treat. I have “unlocked” my NBA plays for today so that you all can see what went out to paying subscribers around 8:15 this morning FOR FREEEEEEEEEE:

NBA Plays 1/2

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NFL Coverage for Today

As you will see below, I am rerunning my NFL Analysis from Friday’s article¹. I was asked by a couple readers to see if I would mind posting this again, but this time include any updates (e.g., Wentz probably playing, Jimmy G not playing) and to rerun the model so folks can see what the output would be with Sunday lines.

Absolutely, but for those who aren’t interested I am reordered the content to bring Parlays, Teasers and Others and DFS up to the top so that if folks aren’t interested they can just ignore the bottom section.

In the Game-By-Game analysis - I have rerun my model for any games where the line has moved more than a point² and you will see that as a separate entry. If I have added game analysis, you will see that as a sub-bullet to my 2 cents - but I will NOT change what I wrote on Friday.

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Parlays, Teasers, and Others:

Keeping these tight this week

• These ones are pending:

  • 2.08u parlay -104 on LAR -250 / Dal -250

  • 2u parlay +107 on LAR -250 / Phi -210

  • 1.2u -120 on Atlanta u14 team total

  • 1u 10pt teaser +110 on Bills -4.5 / TB -3 / Pats -6.5 / Texans +22.5

  • 0.5u 7pt teaser +120 on Phi-Was u51.5 / Atl-Buf u51 / Dal-Ari O44.5

  • 0.5u parlay +755 on LAR -250 / Phi -210 / Dal -250 / Buf -1100 / NE -1200 / Pit +150

  • 0.5u parlay +575 on Cin +170 / Pit +150

• Adding these:

  • 1u 10pt teaser +150 on LAR +3.5 / Ari +16.5 / Buf -4.5 / NYJ +24 / Ind +2

  • 1.15u -115 on LAR team total o27

  • Twitter Parlay Give Away:

    Titanic @TitanicGambler

    I am doing a #NFL #Parlay Give Away!! If this hits, I will give $200 to any person who liked this tweet, follows me on twitter, and subscribes to my substack (free or paid): LAR -6.5 (-125) / Phi -260 / Dal -280 / Buf -14.5 / Pit -150 / Pit-Cle o41 titanicgambler.substack.com

    

    January 2nd 2022

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Daily Fantasy - 

I am putting this out here but going to do about half the action I normally do as I do not love the prices today

• QB - Dak 6,700

• RB - Penny 6,100 / Swift 6,000

• WR- OBJ 5,700 / AJ Brown 7,200 / Gallup 4,800

• TE- Henry 4,200

• Flex- Cooks 6,000

• DST - Seahawks 3,300

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Game by Game analysis:

• Falcons @ Bills -

  • Titanic Model Output - Bills -14.5 (-105) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - Look, I liked the Bills last week and they made me look good. The biggest thing to me is that Josh Allen looked like last year’s Josh Allen. When I say that I mean he looked way more settled in the pocket, he was bouncing around with a good rhythm and his mechanics / footwork were where they need to be. They face a Falcons team that has a record that is truly shocking. They are not a good team (my model has them as the 28th best team), but some how they are 7-8 and still in the playoff hunt. This is a lot of points, but I think Bills win easily as I am not sure how Falcons move the ball here.

• Giants @ Bears -

  • Titanic Model Output - New York Giants +6 (-115) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - The best part about this game (and likely the only redeeming thing) is that this game screws the Giants win or lose. Remember, the Giants hold the Bears 1st rounder in the 2022 draft. They win and they screw up their own pick and if they lose, they screw up the Bears pick. Love it.

• Chiefs @ Bengals -

  • Titanic Model Output (Friday) - Bengals +5 (-110) for 1u

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Bengals +3.5 (-108) for 0.5u

  • My 2 cents - I love this Bengals team. I really do. They played so well again last week. I couldn’t believe how many people were on the Ravens last week. It made no sense to me. Chiefs have been playing better of late, especially powered by their D, but the teams they have been playing have some major flaws (Big Ben’s Steelers are awful). My model says this game should be Bengals +0.5 so we are getting significant value here and I like that. That said, I would not be super excited to start Mixon in my fantasy final as this KC DLine is LEGIT.

• Phins @ Titans -

  • Titanic Model Output -Pass

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) -

  • My 2 cents - I had last week circled to bet against Miami until Ian Book ended up starting that game….here is why…..the Dolphins win streak is now 7 games and it is over Texans, Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, and Jets, Ian Book led Saints. Give me the Titans. Give me them big. Count me as a non-believer.

• Raiders @ Colts -

  • Titanic Model Output - Raiders +7 (-109) for 0.5u

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Colts -8 (-115) for 0.5u

    • Note this includes the change in QB from Ehlinger to Wentz - this line is as high as -9.5 in some places which would make this a no bet.

  • My 2 cents - I have been waiting to write this up to see if Wentz is playing, but I have to be honest that I lean towards Raiders, especially if no Wentz. While Colts got much of their OL back, they will likely be missing their LT and Maxx Crosby can absolutely wreck their game. Remember also that Vegas completely shut down the Broncos running game last week so it will be interesting to see what they can do to the hottest run game in the league

• Jags @ Pats -

  • Titanic Model Output - Pats -16.5 (-110) for 0.5u

  • My 2 cents - This is so many points, but the Jags are so so bad. I am going to struggle to not bet on the Pats, but that is so many points and I do not think the Pats coaching staff are going to want to put too much on tape as this is a team the should be able to put away pretty easily.

• Bucs @ Jets -

  • Titanic Model Output - Bucs -13.5 (-115) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - Jets get a lot of there dudes back, but I do not know how they are going to hold up against the Bucs. I know Bucs have a lot of injuries and this is a lot of points, but honestly, betting on the Jets in this spot is not something I can do and I am prepared to look dumb if this game is close.

• Eagles @ Washington -

  • Titanic Model Output - Eagles -4.5 (-110) for 1u

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Eagles -6.5 (-110) is a Pass

  • My 2 cents - Washington got absolutely dominated in AT&T stadium last week and generally when that happens there is an overreaction the following week and you bet that team and get value. That said I am not sure who is betting Washington in this game, but I promise you that I will not be one of them. You have to look at how that domination happened and it was originally spurred on by the Cowboys D line domination and early running game, well Eagles can do both of those things. The scary thing for me is that this line stated Washington +4 and moved the other way. I find that scary.

• Rams @ Ravens -

  • Titanic Model Output - Pass

  • My 2 cents - I am going Rams here and Rams big for two main reasons. 1) The Ravens have no DB’s left. They have a complete mess on the backend of their defense. 2) I agree with Michael Lombardi, I see this Lamar video and thing there is no way he plays. Huntley has looked pretty good, but Aaron Donald and this D is a different beast.

• Broncos @ Chargers -

  • Titanic Model Output - Pass

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Denver -9 (-110) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - I tried to warn you all not to bet on the Chargers last week and not to include them in your exotics because I thought they would lose. I hoped you listened. Now, I was leaning towards the Broncos last week, but Drew Lock showed us again that he is not an NFL QB. I will likely stay away from this game, but getting Mike Williams back is huge of LA.

• Texans @ 49ers -

  • Titanic Model Output - Pass

  • My 2 cents - Get ready for a feisty Texans team here. Do I think the value is actually on the Texans side? Yes I do. Would I be totally shocked if they win this game? No, I wouldn’t. Do I think it would be smart to use the 49ers in exotics? No, I do not. ——-Yes that is almost a copy and paste from last week and while I feel better about SF than I did about LAC last week I would not go hog wild here especially with no Jimmy G.

• Cards @ Cowboys -

  • Titanic Model Output - Cards +6 (-110) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - I have been pretty clear I am a cowboys fan and I think having Tyron Smith back to help them handle Chandler Jones is a huge help for the Cowboys. That last game was such an ass whooping by the cowboys that I am honestly not sure you can take away a lot. The Cards will present the Cowboys a different challenge than the teams they have been facing and while Kyler has not really been running recently, I would expect to see him take off more this game. The question will be is can Micah Parsons effectively spy him. I do not know. I like the cowboys to win but my model thinks Cards with the points is the value here.

• Panthers @ Saints -

  • Titanic Model Output - Saints -6.5 (-110) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - The Panthers are going back to Sam Darnold and that is absolutely the right decision. Cam is VERY done. He can’t throw any longer. Now, do I think they will be appreciably better? I do not, but at least this gives them a shadow of a hope. The Saints defense is for real and I think Darnold with struggle vs them and I believe the Saints will have Taysom back for this game.

• Lions @ Seahawks - As of now there is no line for this as they are likely waiting to see if Goff is going to play.

  • Titanic Model Output - when this line was Seattle -7, my model liked them as a 3u play. We will see if / when this line gets posted. I will give the update on Sunday,

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Seattle -8 (-110) for 2u

    • Note: This is the only one where I am going to use the Sunday update for tracking purposes

  • My 2 cents - God help me but I think I am going to bet the Seahawks again and then spend Sunday afternoon really upset with myself as I watch that offense struggle again, but the Lions are brutally bad and the Seahawks should present a bad matchup for them. Give me Seattle ← this was before Goff was going to be out and I feel even stronger now that I am going to be upset when Seattle sucks this up

• Vikings @ Packers (SNF) -

  • Titanic Model Output - Pass

  • Titanic Model Output (Sunday) - Vikings +13 (-110) for 2u

  • My 2 cents - This is what I had written - “Call me crazy, but I like the Vikings here and I think they actually win this game. No, I do not think the Vikings are the better team, but I think they NEED this game. Yes, I am well aware of Cousin’s record in the primetime games and that scares me. Yes, I have seen Rodgers pull game after game out of his butt - again, cowboys fan. I just think this game, this week, they get it done.” Now with no Cousins, I am not on the vikings anymore

    • Note - I am back on the Vikings given how high this line has gotten

• Browns @ Steelers (MNF) -

  • Titanic Model Output - Steelers +3.5 (-115) for 1u

  • My 2 cents - Look, I am not sure why folks are surprised but it seems Ben has finally said this will be his last game in Pittsburgh. I think emotions will be high and I think that actually should help the Steelers. My model actually grades them about equal to the Browns and frankly I agree. My model likes that we are getting the points here and so do I

1. Here is a link to the original so you can see what I posted on Friday to show there are no changes other than what I am noting above:

Week 17 NFL Picks and Analysis

2. For tracking purposes / results I will still be using what I sent on Friday in my weekly recap, but will do my best to note the times where line movement won or lost a bet.