While Week 1 is always interesting do not overreact. The reason I say this is the NFL and the NFL Player Association have collectively bargained to basically gut the preseason. That means Weeks 1 through 4 or 5 are preseason for these teams. Here is a fun stat Booger McFarland pointed out on the MNF pregame show, QBs who did not take a snap in preseason were 3-7 straight up in Week 1. Well, that is now 3-8 after MNF.
Some gambling-related trends:
In Week 1
Unders were 11-5
Favorites went 10-5-1 straight up and 8-8 against the spread
Home teams were 6-9-1 straight up and 8-8 against the spread
Teams missed 10 kicks in the 4th Quarter in Week 1
No team in the AFC South had a win in Week 1…..and 2 of them played each other LOL
Per the Action Network - Since 2005 ‘dogs in Week 2 are 61% ATS if the team lost in week 1!!
Per Steve Makinen of VSIN1 - Since 2019, teams that open the season with 2 road games are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the 2nd road game (NE and Indy this week).
Programming note - We have 2 Monday Night Football games this week and so I will send those picks Monday morning.
Overall comment - the model is again taking more risk than I am comfortable with this early so while every play will be tracked and reported (as always) I will be picking / choosing / de-risking some of these picks and shying away from the 0.5u plays given their performance last week.
Week 2
Game 1: Chargers @ Chiefs (Thursday 8:15pm) - win +0.9u2
Game 2: Jets @ Browns (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - Per Todd Fuhrman, last week was the first Week 1 road win for the Browns since 1994, when Bill Belichick was their coach.
Titanic Model Output - 1u on NYJ +6.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - Golly the Jets are bad. Saleh is going to get fired and I think he is going to be the first one. He was +1400 back on June 28th3 and I still think his odds are too high at 10-1. The Jets OL looked terrible last week so I am really concerned about how it is going to hold up against this pass rush and I do not think it will hold up well. I tried to tell you the Browns were really good in the trenches last week, but their QB is a big problem - Jacoby Brissett was really bad last week.
Verdict - Yahoo Sports’ Pam Maldonado lays out a good case to take the Jets here and maybe I will regret this, but I am going to roll with the model and Pam. Let’s do it - Jets +6.5
Game 3: Washington @ Lions (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter - This is the first time in 25 games the Lions are favored
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Washington +1.5 (-110)
My 2 cents -
I personally think the Eagles’ defensive scheme is a problem and you saw what can happen so I would focus on the Lions’ offensive performance that led to them being down 17 instead of the final score. As for the Lions D, I have liked Aaron Glenn since he was a Jets player, but his defense stinks. I have been on the record that I do not like Wentz, but I think Washington is going to be able to march up and down the field on the Lions. I am actually really surprised Detroit is favored as is my model, which thinks Washington is the better team.
Verdict - I am going with the model Washington +1.5.
Game 4: Bucs @ Saints (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Since Tom Brady moved to Tampa Bay, the Saints are 4-0 straight up and against the spread vs Bucs, outscoring them 117-53
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This was the hardest game for me to break down so I am going to focus on one specific aspect - The stats of Brady vs New Orleans have been well documented, but I am struggling to see how the Saints move the ball against this fantastic Bucs defense. The under almost seems too obvious.
Verdict - I think the Bucs are the side, but I just know if I bet them I am going to be sitting there 3:30 pm on Sunday really mad at myself so I am glad my model said it, Pass.
Game 5: Panthers @ Giants (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
With their win in Week 1, the NY Football Giants achieved a winning record for the first time since 2016 when they finished the season 11-5.
Giants starting CB Aaron Robinson is out due to an appendix removal
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Dave Gettleman Tried To Ruin Us Derby!!! I am not sure I saw more of an overreaction to any game from Week 1 than I did to the Giants beating the Titans. I told you last week, that I do not think the Titans are any good and they should have won that game 3 different times - though Saquan looked good! I agree with what Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal pointed out on their Sunday Night podcast, Daniel Jones is going to get hurt if they keep playing this style of football. On the other side, yes the Panthers got screwed with the non-call on intentional grounding but that team is not good. They are going to be up and down a bit all year but I think it is mostly going to be downs.
Verdict - I really don’t think highly of either of these teams so I am going to Pass to see if either of these teams shows me something new.
Game 6: Patriots @ Steelers (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Belichick is 4-1 straight up and against the spread in the last 5 games vs Tomlin
Both Mac Jones and Najee Harris had injury scares in Week 1, but both look good to play this week
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Pittsburgh +2 (-110)
My 2 cents - I tried to warn you all about the Steelers last week. Tomlin is amazing and this week he is facing one of the very few Head Coaches who can match wits with him. It seems like Mac Jones is going to play in this, but their offense looked putrid last week. Do not forget that the Steelers have Brain Flores on staff who has historically done quite well against the Pats offense. I honestly do not know how or why these Patriots are favored on the road here.
Verdict - When I started this week I thought the Steelers would be favored and was shocked to see the Pats favored on the road - Steelers +2
Game 7: Colts @ Jaguars (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - Expected to be mid- to high-80s with high humidity
Stat that might matter -
Colts are 0-6 straight up and against the spread in Jacksonville, including the final game of last season with the Colts’ postseason hanging in the balance
Colts WR Alex Pierce (2nd round pick) entered concussion protocol on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday and Michael Pittman did not practice Thursday
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - How many times can the Colts get within the 5-yard line and not score? I know this was a problem last year and it clearly is continuing this year. Last week the Colts really should have lost but the yardage shows they should have beaten the Texans by 10+. Now let’s talk about the Jags, they really should have won their game too, but they had some key mistakes two dropped TDs.
Verdict - I am going to Pass, but I will not be shocked at all with any result here and if forced to pick, I would lean towards the Jags as the Colts play in a dome and may struggle with the heat/humidity.
Game 8: Dolphins @ Ravens (Sunday 1:00 pm) -
Weather Report - It is expected to be rather warm
Stat that might matter -
Tua is 7-1 against Super Bowl-winning coaches
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on Miami +3.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Each week I pick a few games to sit down and watch the “all 22 film” and this week one of those games was Mia/NE. Tua’s numbers looked okay, but the film shows he was really average at best. The best thing he did was not turn the ball over but I have had concerns with his ability to throw the ball deep and nothing last week eased those concerns. I really think this offense will struggle this week. The Jets are awful so not sure I am going to take a lot away from the Ravens’ performance last week, but the final score flattered them a bit and they looked disjointed. I do like that JK Dobbins was a full participant at practice this week as I think he is dynamic.
Verdict - Same as last week, I like the Ravens and my model likes the other side. Same as last week Pass.
Game 9: Falcons @ Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Per NFL on CBS, NFL Teams leading by 15+ points in the 4th quarter the last 3 years are 250-5-1…..Falcons are 5-3, everyone else is 245-2-1
Per Frankie Taddeo, the Rams are 1-4 against the spread as a favorite in their last 5 games
Per Peter Schrager, Rams DC Raheem Morris taught Falcons WR Olamide Zaccheaus how to swim in his backyard
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Falcons +10 (-110)
My 2 cents - I know I said to not overreact to Week 1, but good lord the Rams looked terrible last week. They now get 10 days to rest up and reload and play this Falcons team that honestly looked much friskier than I expected last week. Bucky Brooks has a concept of a “get right game” and this would fit directly into that definition for the Rams, but I really liked Arthur Smith’s game plan last week and the use of Mariota. Am I nuts to think this will be close?
Verdict - I may regret this Sunday afternoon, but Falcons +10
Game 10: Seahawks @ 49ers (Sunday 4:05 pm) -
Weather Report - From Accuweather “Mostly cloudy and cool with a little rain beginning in the late morning; a rain jacket may be needed for the football game”
Stat that might matter -
Geno Smith is 9-0 against the spread in his last 9 games
Kittle is still not practicing, though they seem hopeful he will play
Seahawks’ S Jamal Adams requires surgery and is out for the remainder of the season
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Seahawks +8.5 (-105)
My 2 cents - As I said we do not want to overreact too much to Week 1 and one of the things we need to weigh was that odd 49ers / Bears game played in a mud pit and monsoon. While it would be easy to throw that out as an aberration I think it is important because it’s going to rain again this week and one of my concerns was how would Trey Lance handle an NFL pocket - the answer was not well. He looked very uneasy and skittish though his OL is Trent Williams and 4 clowns. Lance couldn’t even hit some of the scheme throws that Shanahan set up for him. The calls for Jimmy G are going to get LOUD. Now the Seahawks do not present the same challenge as the Bears and we do not want to overreact to their win last week either, BUT divisional matchups can be tough and I was so unimpressed with Lance.
Verdict - I am going with Seahawks +8.5
Game 11: Bengals @ Cowboys (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Line movement - Dallas was originally installed as a 2-point favorite. After Dak’s injury, the line moved 10.5 points to +8.5 but has come back to +7.5.
Stat that might matter -
Dallas scored the fewest points in a season opener since 1989 when they were shut out in Troy Aikman’s first game, that team went 1-15
Joe Burrow turned the ball over 5 times in Week 1. Per Bobby Belt, in the last 5 games following a multi-turnover game Burrow is 4-1 with 70% comp. percentage, 8 YPA, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 102.9 passer rating.
In his career, Mike McCarthy is 5-1 following a season-opening loss, including 2-0 in Dallas
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Dallas +7.5 (-115)
My 2 cents - I know one of the reasons folks were really excited for the Bengals this year and they believe the Super Bowl loser issues would not persist is because they helped their OL. Well, how do we feel about that now? OL takes time to gel and it is really hard to make wholesale changes and expect immediate results, especially when using other teams' castoffs4. I expect this OL to struggle with the Dallas pass rush. Luckily for Zac Taylor5, he is running into his intellectual equal in Mike McCarthy and an increasingly banged-up Cowboys. I know talking about anything other than Dak getting hurt is like “Other than the shooting, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln”, but we can not lose sight of the fact the Dallas offense was abysmal prior to Dak getting hurt. Cooper Rush can’t look worse, can he? Keep an eye on Joe Mixon running toward Trevon Diggs’ side of the field because Diggs doesn’t like to tackle and Demarcus Lawrence is the DE on the other side. Another thing to keep an eye on is Hayden Hurst as Dallas will be without Jayron Kearse.
Verdict - I am going with Dallas +7.5 and praying they can keep this close.
Game 12: Texans @ Broncos (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Stat that might matter -
Broncos are 19-3 straight up and 14-4-4 against the spread in home openers since 2000
Denver Safety Justin Simmons was placed on IR
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Texans +10 (-106)
My 2 cents - People seem to think the Broncos last week were just an aberration, but I have been clear from the jump that I think this Broncos team is not going to be that good as I think Russell Wilson is damaged goods6. While that stat since 2000 has me worried, I did watch all of Monday Night Football last week and watched the Broncos lose to a Seattle team we all expect to lose 12+ games. This Texans team plays hard and they are friskier than folks realize. I can’t wait for them to ruin folks’ afternoon as they break up survivor pools 2 weeks in a row.
Verdict - Give me the Texans +10, it’s just way too many points, but I am personally only risking 1u.
Game 13: Cardinals @ Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm) -
Titanic Model Output - 1u Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Okay, I know my model is on the Cards but they looked AWFUL last week. How bad was their D? It seemed the Cheifs scored 47 and really weren’t pushing hard and still moving the ball. I think we will find out a lot about this team this week as Kyler just looked like he had zero interest in being there last week. On the other side, I know I was on the Raiders last week and they lost and part of my thought process was that Jacobs would get the ball. I think we see McDaniels give him the rock this week and as he will try to take their soul and then set up play action to take advantage of the Card’s suspect DBs.
Verdict - I really do not know what the heck that was for the Cards last week and I am taking enough risk elsewhere so I am passing.
Game 14: Bears @ Packers (Sunday 8:20 pm) -
Weather Report - might be a couple of showers
Stat that might matter -
In 2021 Aaron Rodgers had 0 TDs and 2 INTs in the Packers’ first game of the season (a loss), but his TD:INT ratio was 37:2 for the remainder of the season
As Kevin Clark of the Ringer pointed out in his summer piece, with the win in Week 1 Matt LaFleur is now second all-time in win percentage as a head coach in NFL history at 78%7
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Bears +10 (-110)
My 2 cents - Aaron Rodgers was right in his post-match comments - if Christian Watson doesn’t drop that pass and if Rodgers pulls the ball on the RPO they easily could have won that game. That said, why is no one talking about how bad their OL looked last week? I think the Bears might get some real joy there. Justin Fields found a way to win against a good SF defense in a monsoon and he made a couple of plays but he really just didn’t look very good either.
Verdict - In the words of the famous singer R Kelly “My mind is telling me no, but my body…….my body is telling me yes”8 Bears +10
My model’s outlay - 11.5 units of risk (including TNF)
My personal picks outlay - 8 units of risk (including TNF)
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Last week was really poor on my exotics, though my props did well! I think where I missed really was the fact I was too expansive with exotics given that it is so early in the season. I am going to keep exotics light and try to attach totals this week:
Edit note: the 7pt teaser below was published incorrectly showing the Dolplhins twice so please see updated in bold, original in strikethrough.
Pending - 0.575u 6pt Teaser -115 Vikings +8.5 / Min-Phi o44.5
Pending - 0.5u 6pt Teaser +150 LAC +10.5 / Steelers +7.5 / Vikings +8.5
1.12u Parlay - Raiders -220 / Bengals -330 -112
0.5u 7pt Teaser +200 - Dolphins +10.5 / Steelers +9 / Jets +13.5 / Dolphins +10.50.5u 7pt Teaser +200 - Dolphins +10.5 / Steelers +9 / Jets +13.5 / Vikings +9
0.5u on Jets / Browns under 39.5 -110
0.5u Pats / Steelers under 40.5 -110
0.5u on Dolphins TT under 20.5 -115
0.25u Underdog Parlay of the Week +1096 - Vikings +115 / Jags +165 / Steelers +110
Player Props
Loss - 0.25u on Josh Palmer over 45.5 receiving yards -115
0.5u Josh Jacobs over 59.5 rushing yards +105
0.25u Trey Lance under 197.5 passing yards -115
0.25u Christian Kirk over 57.5 yards -115
0.25u Donovan Peoples-Jones any time TD +210
There are a couple of props I wanted to bet that do not have lines currently on the books I use. I will not put out plays I cannot personally bet when I hit publish so I will put them in the footnotes in case you are interested9 but note they are not official plays and won't be tracked.
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
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Survivor Thoughts
Last week worked out really well with this section so let’s keep it going! Again for Week 2, I am not getting too cute and just pick a team where I would be SHOCKED if they lost. That removes teams like:
Browns - Tying my fate to Jacoby Brissett scares me and are we sure their win against the Panthers wasn’t just them beating a crappy team?
Packers - Their OL scares me
49ers - Trey Lance does NOT look ready for the NFL
Broncos - What about last week’s game makes you confident they are a lock to win against anyone?
My options are going to be:
Rams - I know I am on the Falcons above, but I would not be shocked at all if the Rams win by 3 TDs
Bills - They looked like world beaters last week and the Titans lost to the NY Football Giants
Bengals - I’m a cowboys fan, but I really can’t see a team helmed by Cooper Rush beating a team with Joe Burrow at starting QB
I am going with the Rams as my pick for Week 210
Good luck with all your action! Have a great weekend!
This was talked about on the GM Shuffle
Sportsbooks cash our tickets just the same for backdoor wins as they do for blowouts.
As I have mentioned, I often take part in fun chats and pick discussions on discord, and back on June 28th I suggested 0.25u each on Rhule +300, Vrabel +1200, Kliff +1200, and Saleh +1400….Per BetOnline, these are now +375, +900, +500, and +1000 respectively
One of the reasons La’el Collins was shown the door in Dallas was due to his declining ability to stay on the field. He had major hip surgery 2 years ago and it appears to have robbed him of the bend that he had. In reviewing last week’s all 22, he looks slow in moving and his lack of training camp really showed.
What the hell was his coaching last week? In a week of awful coaching, this was up there with the worst mistakes
Continue to keep an eye on whether he runs. He has refused to the last season and a half and his play has dropped off SIGNIFICANTLY
1st is Guy Chamberlin (58-16-7) who coached 1922-1927, 3rd is John Madden (103-32-7), 4th is Vince Lombardi (96-34-6) and 5th is George Allen (116-47-5)
I love the lyrics that open the R. Kelly song Bump N’ Grind as it has a whole new meaning over the last few years.
Devonte Adams Any Time TD, Russell Wilson under rushing yards
We used Ravens in Week 1