Week 2 Recap
Well, we had a winning week! Sure, 0.9u of profit is not a huge number, but it is certainly better than losing (like we did last week!)
One thing to note with the above is that I did settle our Nick Chubb OPOY future and marked that down as a loss of 0.25u.
Now, when we zoom into the picks that were made we find that the model was actually +1.5u for the week which moves the model to +2.4u overall and +3u for 1u plays! What this does mean is that my personal added picks sucked again and cost us just over 0.6u.
Those who have been with me for a while will know that over the NFL season, I actually use 2 different models. I have one that drives futures bets as well as my early-season betting and then usually around weeks 4, 5, 6, or 7, I tend to shift to my “in-season” model. While I usually do not roll out that model’s picks until later in the season, I decided this year to start running it to what it looks like…..Well, I ran it for week 2…..
Now, I will be the first to say THAT IS WILD! I can’t get over those results. I was so stunned that I went back over the last 3 full seasons, the model has never had even HALF that amount of profit in a single week (the highest ever for model-only picks is 7u)!
Now one of the many reasons I do not use that model until further in the season is that the model does not have enough data to make really accurate lines (hence 6 3u plays last week!), but that performance is hard to ignore!
This leads me to believe we should be VERY cautious but I am still evaluating what to do with this information - I am just sharing as I am always about #Transparency.
Golf Picks
We had a 16% ROI last week on the DP World Tour and we are 72.3% ROI when betting DPWT so DO NOT miss this week’s French National Championship that tees off early tomorrow morning!
Thursday Night Football Pick and Analysis
Game 1: Giants @ 49ers (Thursday 8:20 pm):
For those who read the above and want to know which model this is coming from - Good news!!! The two models both agree on tonight’s pick!!
Other bets:
0.25u Brock Purdy over 0.5 INTs +215
0.5u on a 7pt teaser of NY Giants +17 / Titans +10 / Bills +0.5 (+131)