Week 3 Recap
Well, that was not great because of some of these ugly dogs that my model likes to take early. The Broncos suck and gave up 70, the Bears continue to look incredibly lost, the Titans look putrid, and the Falcons could get nothing going.
This pushed the model’s record below 500 this year and into unprofitable territory.
Here is the really interesting thing that gives me a bit of solace, per Ben Fawkes, DraftKings had 8 games where 70% of the bets were on one side and those sides covered 7-1. We were on the other side of all but 1 of those (the Pats).
Also speaking of getting nothing going, my freaking add-on picks can’t seem to get going. Thursday night we had Purdy passes clanging off Giant defenders which was followed by Sunday where we had Zay Flowers getting 48 yards receiving (needed over 49.5) and Dak’s longest completion of 34 years (needed over 35.5), thank god Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts threw some picks.
Something I covered going into last week was my “in-season” model’s too good to be true performance Week 2….Well, it WAS! I found a bug in the code! That is why I always do testing! I have gone back and regraded Week 2 so here is how that model is doing in testing through Week 3:
I am REALLY interested in the performance for Week 4 as the two models agree on almost every single side (different risks) this week as such, so I am going to throw the “in-season” model right into the fire!
Thursday Night Football Pick and Analysis
Game 1: Lions @ Packers (Thursday 8:20 pm):
Other bets:
0.25u on Sam LaPorta under 46.5 receiving yards (-108)