NFL Week 7 Picks / DFS
Happy Thursday!!!
I am traveling this weekend (leaving early tomorrow morning) so I am combining my Thursday and Friday articles here! We have a smaller slate of games this weekend given bye weeks and my model lines up pretty well with what the books have posted so expect fewer than usual bets from me.
I should have a post Sunday morning with a few more exotics and my Sunday DFS picks.
Let’s crush this week and cash some tickets!!
Game by Game analysis:
Broncos @ Browns - I have been a fan of the Broncos all season, but they looked about as bad as could be last week. That has me spooked. I know this line moved a couple points without Baker playing, but he has been playing poorly all season. I personally do not see a huge difference between the compromised Baker we have seen this season and a prepared Case Keenum. What really pushes me to my decision here is the injuries to Chubb and Hunt. If they were playing, I would be on the Browns, but it is a PASS.
Washington @ Packers - I know I keep saying I do not like how the Packers have looked and that remains the case. That said, Washington as looked terrible and my model considers them the 27th best team in the NFL. There defense has been abysmal all season. I am thinking Rodgers has a really good day here, but I really wish this was 7 and not 8 so I will PASS as Heineken driving for a garbage time back door cover is very possible.
Chiefs @ Titans - Count me as continuing to be dubious of this Titans team. They were terrible at defense last year and I do not think they are materially better this season, but what do you say about the Chiefs. Mahomes is turning the ball over at an alarming rate and they seem to let teams hang around, but the compromised Titans defensive backfield should be taken advantage of. That said, my model has me taking a pause so I will PASS.
Falcons @ Dolphins - These two teams stink. Flat out. I can’t imagine being a Phins fan right now and watching Herbert in LA and thinking that your team took Tua instead. He just doesn’t seem to have it and given is relative size, I do not see how he is going to stay healthy. The news yesterday of trading for Watson is interesting but unhelpful for this week. PASS
Jets @ Pats - BB’s record against rookie QB’s is well known and lauded and done so for good reason. I watched every second of that Pats/cowboys game last weekend and their ability to make teams play left handed hasn’t changed. Unfortunately for the Pats, the cowboys offense seems to be so good they could play with no hands at this point and still put up 30. Here is some good analysis for you, the Jets are not as good as the Cowboys. I know. I really am going out on a limb with that. Pats - 7
Panthers @ Giants - My model likes the Panthers, but Darnold has killed me two weeks in a row. I went back and have rewatched their games and if he gets hit early in the game, his ability to stay sound in the pocket and with his footwork becomes comprised. That said, the Panthers are a well coached team and the Giants are not, especially on offense. They are still really banged up and if I were to personally bet on this game I would bet the under here but as to picking a side? PASS.
Bengals @ Ravens - This is a match up of my model’s 4th and 7th ranked teams…..yes, my model has the Bengals as the 7th best team in the NFL. That is not a mistake. They have been playing really great football. They are 4-2 and their two losses are by a combined 6 points including that absurd missed kick fest with the Packers. On the other side of the ball, I am not sure there was a team that looked more impressive last week than the Ravens. They walked into LA and slapped the Chargers around for 60 minutes. PASS for me but this should be a fun game to watch.
Eagles @ Raiders - Okay, remember a couple weeks ago when I said I was ready to just be wrong and take the L on the Ari / SF game and I just for the life of me didn’t get why everyone was in love with the 49ers? I feel exactly the same way here. I do not understand why folks trust or like the Eagles. By all accounts Jalen Hurts is a really good and hard working guy who will work as hard as he can to be a top level QB and I wish him all the best, but I do not see it. Raiders looked possessed last week and I am buying in Raiders -3
Lions @ Rams - Look, 15 points is a lot of points to lay and I have been saying for a while that the Lions are going to blow up survivor pools one of these weeks, BUT the Rams have looked great all season (they are my #3 rated team) and they have WAYYYY more talent. LAR -15
Texans @ Cards- My model thinks the Texans are the 31st and the Cardinals are the #1 ranked team. When I watch games live and review tape afterwards these ratings make all the sense in the world. The Texans are really bad and the Cards are playing great. 17.5 is a lot to lay, so I am going to PASS but I would not be shocked at all to see 42-3 at the end of Sunday.
Bears @ Bucs - Bears really let me down last week and I think I might still be higher on them than others, but this spot is not one I really like. PASS.
Colts @ 49ers -My numbers like the Lance led 49ers, but am I still skeptical. I knew he had all the physical tools coming out of college but not enough experience and that has been VERY apparent so far. Now, they are coming off a bye week and they have someone who I think is one of the better coaches in the league and going up against this Eberflus defense (without Blackmon which is a huge loss) that I think they should be able to take advantage of. I am going to bit and go with SF -4.
#TitanicModel output:
Looks like my model thinks the lines the books have up are much closer to “right” than in previous weeks.
2u Plays:
Las Vegas -3 (-105)
1u Plays:
Cleveland -1 (-108)
Green Bay -7.5 (-111)
LA Rams -15 (-110)
Arizona -17.5 (-105)
0.5u Plays:
Carolina -3 (-105)
TB -12.5 (-105)
San Fran -4 (-110)
Parlays and Teasers:
1u parlay @ +184 for LAR -1100 / LV -160 / ARI -1493 / SF -200
1u 6pt teaser @ 150 for Ten +10.5 / NE -1 / Ari -11.5
Daily Fantasy:
Thursday edition
QB - Winston 5,900
RB - Harris 5,700 / D Williams (KC) 5,800
WR- McLaurin 6,900 / Debo 7,300 / Sutton 6,400
TE- Uzomah 3,000
Flex- Godwin 5,900
DST - Raiders 3,000
Best of luck in all your action!