Republishing as it seems like the version last night didn’t have the game breakdown.
Week 8 Recap
We had a good Week 7 and an atrocious Week 8 and we continue to have a crappy season. There is really not much to say at this point, but these things can happen when betting on sports. Sure, there is time to turn it around, but it is also reasonable to ask if I have lost my edge and it is definitely something I have been thinking about.
As I often say “Not all good bets win, not all bad bets lose” and let’s take a look at last week and I will say why I am still optimistic.
We had the Browns +4 - they were up 3 and all they had to do was run the ball, punt, and make a Seahawks team that hadn’t moved the ball all day, drive the ball 80 yards. Instead, they threw a ball, hit Jamal Adams in the head, and got it picked. The Seahawks scored a TD on the short field and we pushed.
Baltimore -9 was up 24-7 with 9:27 left, and up 31-15 with 2:51 left. Give up a TD, but stop the 2pt conversation to stay up 10. They leave a guy who is known for having rock hands to field the onside kick, which he muffs and the Cards get the ball and kick a meaningless FG.
Now, this works both ways, we did not have any business pushing the Jets -3 bet in the game that set the sport back to the 1950’s, but as you can see a few bad breaks cost us.
The one saving grace this week is that we did cash our first coach-fired futures bet which brought back 5.5u of profit (we won 7.5u, but lost 2u on the other bets).
Programming note: I will have a Futures check-in at some point in the next couple of weeks.
Thursday Night Football Pick and Analysis
While I am optimistic about my picks, I am not here to keep pissing my money away (or yours) so I am changing up how I am doing things.
From now on, I am going to be doing more of an overlay and reducing the amount of risk we are taking each week as, frankly, we took way more risk than we should have last week and it bit us right in the ass.
I will have more of an explanation of my plans when I post my full week’s picks.
Game 1: Titans @ Steelers (Thursday 8:15 pm):
Other bets:
None.