This is one of the best sports weekends of the entire year. I have it right up there with the Masters and the first Thursday through Sunday of March Madness. I am honestly not sure there is even a 4th to put on that Mount Rushmore. This is a great weekend and I hope we are able to cash all of our tickets!
I have included some Futures tickets below and they will be tracked according to their maturity (aka a Conf Champ bet will be graded after Conf Champ weekend) and will be included in weekly recaps.
Hope you have a great weekend!
My personal strategy / bankroll management
I figured I would take a quick aside here to tell you how I bet football once we get to the playoffs. At this point I generally reset what my view is of my bankroll for NFL.
As I said WAYYYYYYYY back when I we started this season, for model purposes, I made the assumption that I had a 10k bankroll so 1 unit would equal $1001. By my math, we are up 3,601.04 on football going into this week. After some rounding, that would mean my bankroll would now theoretically be 13,600 so 1u would now be $136.
Does this mean this is something you should do? That is entirely up to you!! You could keep rolling with your initial unit size and wait until after the season is over to recalibrate going into next year. You could bank the 3,600 into your savings account, kids’ 529, make an extra payment on your mortgage or buy yourself or a loved one a nice present. Whatever is best for you and your situation.
Now for tracking purposes, I am going to keep everything in the model and performance tracker @ $100/per unit for ease of use, but I wanted to be honest with how I operate and given how things have been going on NBA2 and other things I bet, my until is actually closer to $200 at this point in the season.
Before we get into the games I wanted to cover a quick bit on some trends from Wild Card Weekend that I have seen in a ton of places.
Last 3 years, first time coaches 8-1 straight up
Last 4 years, road teams are 14-4 straight up and 15-3 vs the Spread
Since 2010, rookie QBs are 0-6 in their first playoff game, 2-4 vs the spread (rookie QB’s: Mac Jones
Since 2005, home favorites 7+ points 13-2 straight up and 11-5 vs the spread
Since 2002 QB’s in first playoff start 17-33 straight up and 16-32 -1 vs the spread (first time playoff QB’s: Carr, Burrow, Jones, Hurts, Murray)
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Game by Game analysis:
For the playoffs, I have am giving a bit more content for each game. Enjoy!
Raiders @ Bengals (Saturday 4:30pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Bengals -5.5 (-105) for 1u
Line movement note - This line opened at -6, went up to -6.5 and even -7 and then dropped back down to -5.5
Stat that might matter: Raiders have a short week and have a D that play 853 snaps late into Sunday night last week
My 2 cents - Okay, let’s start with I am amazed the Raiders got here. I did not like them all year, starting with my under futures win prediction. They deserve a ton of credit for getting to the playoffs in what has been a WILD season, but let’s not forget they are here because they went 4-0 in OT games so if they split that they wouldn’t be here so let’s be clear I think the Bengals win this game and I do not think it will be close. Bengals stand to have a healthy Burrow and Raiders may have a tired D. I think the Bengals will score on the Raiders, the question is whether Vegas can score on the Bengals. I am dubious. Give me the Bengals and I would not be surprised to see the Under here with the Raiders struggling on O.
Pats @ Bills (Saturday 8:15pm) -
Titanic Model Output - New England +4.5 (-110) for 0.5u
Weather Report - If you remember their first game in Buffalo the game was basically in a winter version of a monsoon with 50 mph winds and snow. This game is not supposed to have any rain or snow or much wind, but it is predicted to be 1 degree Fahrenheit. Yes, you read that right, 1 degree. Western NY weather SUCKS in the winter.
Stat that might matter: Josh Allen’s completion percentage in freezing weather is under 50% in 5 games
My 2 cents - Round 3 of this match up and both sides come in 1 and 1. In the first round the weather was awful and the Pats just ran the ball down the Bills’ throats while Daboll kept trying to stubbornly throw the ball. In round 2 of this fight, Josh Allen looked about as good as he ever has. Will be interesting to see how Pats adjust in this game. While I think Mac Jones is a bit over his head here I have been really unimpressed with how the Bills played these last couple weeks.
Eagles @ Bucs (Sunday 1pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Buccaneers -8.5 (-110) for 1u
Line movement note - This line opened at -7 and zoomed to -9.5 then slowly moved back to -8.5
Stat that might matter: Philly was 0-6 vs the other playoff teams. Their wins were over the Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Broncos, Saints, Jets, Washington (x2), and Giants.
My 2 cents - Alright, Bucs have a lot of injuries, and it is not just on offense. Do not discount the injuries to Shaq Barrett, JPP, and Lavonte David are all banged up and I think David might be out. David is going to be the biggest issue here as the Eagles run, run and run some more especially running outside the tackles. If they were fully healthy, I would happily take Bucs as I think Todd Bowles can shut down an Oklahoma offense, but here we are. Now the Eagles defense is a problem. They get almost no pressure (31st in the league in sacks) and now they are running the soft zone and that is a real problem vs TB12, but once again, let’s talk about being hurt. Fournette is coming back but will he be 100%? No AB, No Godwin, No Grayson. Would I be shocked if Philly wins this? Not really, BUTTTTT as covered above, the Eagles haven’t beaten anyone and have lost against every good team they have played.
49ers @ Cowboys (Sunday 4:30pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Dallas -3 (-115) for 1u
Line movement note - This line opened at -3, immediately went to -4.5, and then quickly went back to -3.5 and then -3
My 2 cents - I have been open about being a Cowboys fan and I will be perfectly honest with you - I am TERRIFIED of Debo Samuel. What a freaking weapon he is. If I am the Cowboys, I employ the Bill Belichick strategy of doubling the top WR and then puts Diggs on their 2nd best WR, then leverage Jayron Kearse (assuming he is back) on Kittle. To me that is important but where this this game is going to be decided is the part of this game that hasn’t been covered enough → When Dan Quinn (Cowboys D coordinator) was in Atlanta, Kyle Shanahan was his OC! I think (and maybe it is just hoping) that Quinn will know how Kyle will want to attack this game and he will deploy LVE and Parsons to take away the run, go hat on a hat with the OLine and put this game in Jimmy G’s hands. If the Cowboys can score early and build a lead, this could get really ugly, but if San Fran runs the ball and controls the clock this will be really close. I think Cowboys are going to put up at least 30 so it becomes a question of if Dallas can stop San Fran from scoring too / have the ball in Jimmy G’s hands. Do not underestimate Greg Zuerlein4 missing a PAT and cowboys winning by 2. Also note that EVERYONE seems to be on San Fran.
Steelers @ Chiefs (Sunday 8:15pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Pittsburgh +13 (-115) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - I am going to get it out of the way and say I think the Chiefs win and I do not expect this to be close, but as always with the Chiefs giving up this many points can be scary as they always seem to be asking for a back door cover so the first half line is the way to go
Mini rant - Now that we have covered that can we talk about Mike Tomlin? I know he isn’t in the conversation for coach of the year and rightfully so, but good lord how did he get that team to 9 wins?!? I often joke in my house that Mike Tomlin is as amazing as a football coach and as he is an actor5, but what he did with the corpse of Big Ben at QB and his abysmal defense all year is really stunning to me. I give him all the credit in the world.
Cards @ Rams (Monday 8:15pm) -
Titanic Model Output - Line is -4 (-110), but my model is Pass
Stat that might matter: Cards are 5-2 against this season’s playoff teams, Rams are 2-5 against this season’s playoff teams. They went 1-1 against each other
My 2 cents - Stafford has been pretty bad the past 9 games, check his QBR6 since November started. I have not liked what I have seen from the Rams these last few weeks, especially on D last week. That said, the Cards haven’t looked impressive at all on offense the last few weeks and they only kept up with Seattle because of their D. Can their D get to Stafford and continue to bang him around? I am not sure. Remember, it is hard when you play a team a third time in a season and it might come down to coaching. I like McVay over Kliff, but something is scaring me about taking the Rams and it really how they have looked recently. Give me the Cards.
Mini rant- Can we take a moment and talk about how absolutely fucked these two teams got? I say this because if there are no upsets in the NFC then the winner of this game will get to go to Green Bay on a short week to play Packers team coming off a bye, plus they didn’t play their starters the 2nd half vs the Lions.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Not too many games so there will be less action from now on
(EDIT NOTE: I have updated the results of this on Jan 16)
Pending - 1.15u 6pt Teaser -115 KC - 6.5 / TB -2.5
Pending - 1.1u -110 KC -7.5 1H line
Loss - 1u 6.5pt teaser +150 LV-Cin u55 / NE-Buf u50.5 / Ari-LAR o43
Pending - 0.5u parlay +105 on Cin -222 / TB -400 / KC -750
Win - 0.5 parlay +265 on Cin -5.5 (-108) / u48.5
Pending - 0.25u Highest scoring game Ari/LAR +425
Loss - 0.25u Lowest scoring team LV +600
Pending - 0.5u Twitter giveaway7 (you must like the tweet AND follow me on twitter to be eligible
I am laying the following action and I am going to do 2.75 units of action and scaling these so that if we win any of these we amore or less break even. Here we go:
1u Titans to win AFC +300
0.5u Dallas to win Super Bowl +1100
0.5u Green Bay - KC SB match up +550
Superbowl I was Green Bay vs KC in Los Angeles…….rematch?!?
0.25u San Fran to win Super Bowl +2200
0.25u Green Bay - Titans SB match up +1000
0.25u Dallas-KC SB match up +1600
One other thing with these, is that we may get to Conference Championship Weekend and have some really nice hedge opportunities.
Daily Fantasy -
This lineup is for the games where you can go across all 6 games!
QB - Dak 6,400
RB - Mixon 6,800 / Fournette 5,900 - This assumes he plays
WR- AJ Green 4,900 / CD Lamb 6,200 / Kirk 5,300
TE- Kittle 6,000
Flex- DeVonta Smith 5,500
DST - Bengals 3,000
Good luck in all your action!
Check out #3 in my Welcome note.
If you do not get this joke give “Mike Tomlin and Omar Epps” a google. I am not saying they are the same person but have you ever seen them in the same place at the same time? Me either!
This is 0.5u because I am placing half of the bet for the follower who wins