Performance Report / NBA Finals Game 1
Performance Report
The model has stayed scorching hot!!
Here is the full breakdown in our normal format:
Futures Check in:
Nothing has changed since last week’s update other than feeling really good about where these stand right now.
Over / Unders - 6-4-1 +1.25u
Awards - 0-2 -0.75u
Finals - 0-4 -1.75u, 5 pending (made throughout the season)
0.5u on Boston +850 - Pending
0.5u on GSW +900 - Pending
0.5u on Miami +1000 - Loss
0.25u on Boston +4000 - Pending
Eastern Conf
1u on Boston +400 - Win
1u on Miami +425 - Loss
Western Conf
1u on Golden State +400 - Win
Let’s discuss hedging. Right now, if Celtics win the title we will see a $1375 profit and if the Warriors win the title we will see a $375 profit. Now the question becomes how do you personally feel about riding 10u on the Celtics. If 10u riding makes you very queasy you are likely using units that are too large, but that is a topic for a different day. So here are some hedging options given current series pricing (GSW -150):
Close the gap a little
Bet 1.5u on GSW @-150
Profit 475 if GSW win, 1225 if Boston wins
Close the gap half way
Bet 3u on GSW @ -150
Profit 575 if GSW win, 1075 if Boston wins
Close most of the gap
Bet 4.5u on GSW @ -150
Profit 675 if GSW win, 925 if Boston wins
No gap
Bet 6u on GSW @ -150
Profit will be 775 no matter what
What should you do? That is ENTIRELY a question for you and your risk management, tolerance, and frankly how do you feel about this Celtics team. For the model and tracking purposes I am going to go with Option 3 above.
NBA Finals Game 1
Post Season Record - 35-20 for +13.9u
Post Season Record (incl post season futures) - 37-26 for +18.7u
Strategy - I am playing all the plays.
Other Notes - I do not think the model will throw us any plays here. I won’t be loading your inbox with messages unless I have a plays and I will keep an eye on seeing if this moves.
Good luck with all your wagers
Play Tables: