St Jude Championship - Recap
Usually in this space I am able to point to some good things, but not so much this week. We only wagers 8u and it was not a disaster by any stretch, but it is hard for me to be super positive because even the tickets we cashed seemed like we were on the wrong side.
Instead of crying over my spilled milk, starting this week you are going to start to see a bit of a change with how my bets are spread out. You may ask “why?” well the results below speak for themselves as we have a pretty good sample of data so you will start to see a small change this week (impacted by the field size, and see this more specifically when the season starts up again in 6 weeks with more of a focus on T20’s).
BMW Championship
The PGA Tour travels from Memphis to Wilmington, Delaware for the 2nd leg of the FedEx Playoffs. This tournament is restricted to just the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. This event has no cut, but only the top 30 in the standings will move on to the Tour Championship.
This year’s BMW Championship is hosted by Wilmington Country Club which plays to a par of 71 across ~7,500 yards. While that might make it seem like it should be a bombers course, the fairways are relatively narrow and this course boasts some larger greens so the question this week will be “how penalizing will the rough be?”. I have a sneaky suspicion this will play more like August Nationals so you will see my picks slanted in that direction.
While this is a big tournament there is only so much value in the T10 and T20 slots given that it is a small field. Here is my set of tickets (about 10.8u of risk):
Outright:
0.5u on Rory McIlroy +1100
0.5u on Scottie Scheffler +1800
0.25u on Keegan Bradley +12500
T10 (0.25u on each):
Rory McIlroy +110
Scottie Scheffler +165
Taylor Pendrith +550
Sebastian Munoz +800
T20
1.4u on Scottie Scheffler -140
0.5u on Aaron Wise +150
0.5u on Keegan Bradley +240
0.25u on Taylor Pendrith +210
0.25u Sebastian Munoz +280
Match ups
1.44u on Keegan Bradley over Chris Kirk -144
1.27u on Keith Mitchell over JT Poston -127
1.2u on Aaron Wise over Russell Henley -120
0.575 on Scottie Scheffler over Patrick Cantlay -115
0.55u on Cameron Young over Sam Burns -110
0.3225 on Scottie Scheffler over Tony Finau -129
0.3u on Rory McIlroy over Matthew Fitzpatrick -120
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Come hang out at the Winners Row Discord where you will find me chatting golf / horses and a bunch of other stuff!!
Daily Fantasy
Let’s take a crack (I am going with about $50 in action):
Scheffler 9,800
Cam Young 8,900
Homa 8,500
Wise 8,100
Pendrith 7,400
Bradley 7,200
Remaining budget $100
Good luck in all your action!