Recap!!
We had a great year last year that was recapped in a post a few weeks ago.
In short we turned a 59 unit profit with a 36.5% ROI, which I would happily lock in right now if you could guarantee that I could have those results again this year.
Sadly, unless you are Biff Tannen, there is no way to know what is ahead of us so let’s get to the 2022-2023 wrap around season!
Last Week!
Last week I put out some unofficial plays on twitter (These were not tracked / will not be included in performance), and we found a nice little 16-1 winner with Shane Lowry!!
Let’s keep these good vibes rolling!!!
Early Season Golf
Alright, so let’s discuss these early season golf tournaments (aka from now until the Sentry Tournament of Champions the first week of January).
These tournaments are all going to be relative weak fields with many guys using this time to rest, spend time with family, work on their games, play on the DP world tour, and maybe do anything other than competitively golf! Accordingly, you will notice my plays will be lighter than you are normally used to and I will likely focus on some longer shots as we are likely to see some winners that only the hardcore golf fans have ever heard of because many of these tournaments are wide open.
Make sure you are keeping your bankroll management standards as we start to have multiple sports running at once!1
Just a head’s up that I will also be taking a pass on next week’s Presidents Cup because I expect team USA to destroy the International team and I will also be there on site watching the golf so I will be busy :)
Chat Golf and Get Early Picks
Last year we had a really lively discussion during golf tournaments about shots made and missed, fun gambling angles, tee time updates, etc. over at Winners Row, but this season our discussion has moved to:
Come hang out and there is also bonus that some weeks (like this week) I give out some of my picks a day early!! Let’s hang out!
Fortinet Championship
The PGA tour starts its wrap around calendar with a trip to Napa, California to visit the North Course at Silverado Country Club. This course plays to a par 72 over a distance of ~7,150 yards. The winners of this tournament tend to be those who shoot in the high-teens so do not be surprised by -16 to -19 winning score. That said this should be tight down the stretch as the history of this tournament has been mostly Playoffs and 1 shot victories2.
As I expected and mentioned above, this field lack high level names an you can see that with the odds and sooooo many guys in the +4500-+6000 range of odds. Max Homa is near the top of favorites and is the defending champ.
Let’s get to this week’s dance card (about 7.8u of risk):
Outright (0.25u each):
Taylor Pendrith +2800
Brendan Steele +4000
Taylor Montgomery +5000
Chris Kirk +7000
Luke List +8000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Taylor Pendrith +350
Gary Woodland +650
T20
1u on Taylor Pendrith +170
0.5u on Corey Conners +115
0.5u Brendan Steele +225
0.25u on Wyndham Clark +280
0.25u on Gary Woodland +320
0.25u on Luke List +333
Match ups
1.3u on Gary Woodland over Webb Simpson -130
0.75u on Patrick Rodgers over Brendan Todd -150
0.675u on Luke List over Lucas Glover -135
0.6u on Mav McNealy over Sahith Theegala -120
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 30 min or so of publication.
Daily Fantasy
I’ll take a swing but I am going to keep it super light (maybe like $20 worth:
Pendrith 9,800
Steele 8,900
Suh 8,200
Clark 8,000
Kirk 7,900
List 7,000
Remaining Budget 200
Good luck in all your action!
I have said it before, and I will say it again - I believe in doing the 1% bankroll method PER SPORT. That means each unit = 1% of your bankroll for THAT sport. You can, and should, have different sized bankrolls for each sport sized by how confident you are in that sport. For example if you have a total of 10K then you could do something like 5k for NFL, 3k for NBA and 2K for the PGA Tour so your unit sizes would be 50, 30, and 20 respectively. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE bet responsibly and you can ALWAYS have less than 1% be your units.
15 editions of this tournament - 5 playoffs, 6 1-stroke victories, 4 2-stroke victories