PGA Tour - RBC Canadian Open
Memorial Recap, a trip to Ontario, and DFS
the Memorial Tournament
About a month ago I had had enough. My process to pick winners for the PGA tour was clearly not working. I decided at that time to go back to first principles and basics which is to stop trying to pick winners and instead pick value. I was hopeful this would lead to better results and BOY HAS IT!!!!!
Look, I am THRILLED to have hit a 65-1 shot to win in Jack’s tournament in Ohio. I really am, but I am also really happy about two other things:
This win wasn’t actually surprising given how close we have come the last few weeks with guys being in great position late in tournaments
We have continued to be profitable across T10, T20, and H2H picks which is huge. The outright picks are going to be boom or bust and you just have to hope you hit enough of them to stay profitable, but if my new process can grind profits in T10, T20 and H2H picks we will be set up for long term success.
Here is this week’s recap:
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Before I get into the details for this week I wanted to chat about the Saudi / Kushner Tour which is having it’s first event this week. I will be frank with you all, you will not see me handicapping that tour or really addressing it further to say that I think it is preposterous and pretty gross.
The RBC Canadian Open
The PGA Tour returns to Canada after a 2 year hiatus due to the global pandemic. This is the 6th time it will be contested at St Goerge’s near Toronto. The course plays to a par of 71 and is about 6,400 meters (haha I amuse myself, that is ~7,000 yards) in length. This course has been lengthened since it last hosted this tournament back in 2010 and there are going to be some odd things like the fact that for the first two rounds players will be starting from the 1st and 9th tees rather than 1st and 10th.
One thing we must remember is that this tournament is the week before the US Open and the tournament before a major can always have some surprising results (always seems like a big name misses the cut), but my numbers are actually saying the favorites have the best shot here so here are my picks for this week:
Outright (0.25u on each):
Justin Thomas +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000
Shane Lowry +2000 (dropped on WR yesterday)
T10 (0.25u on each):
Cam Smith +160
Shane Lowry +200 (dropped on WR yesterday)
Harold Varner III +350
Keith Mitchell +500
1.25u on Cam Smith -125
1u on Shane Lowry +105 (dropped on WR yesterday)
0.8u on Justin Thomas -160
0.5u on Keith Mitchell +225
0.25u on Adam Long +350
0.25u on JJ Spaun +375
0.25u on Mark Hubbard +400
1.25u on Doug Ghim over John Huh -125
1.23 on Danny Willet over Matt Wallace -123
0.675 on Ryan Armour over Harry Higgs -135
0.6u on Adam Long over Nick Taylor -120
0.5u on Tyrrell Hatton over Harold Varner III +106
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds that are live at the time of publication.
If you want to come hang out and chat during the tournament come to:
Make sure you signup with them as I drop one of my picks in their golf chat a day before this is posted and am in there all weekend chatting. They have tons of great free and paywall content (if that’s your thing).
taking another pass but will be back for the US Open.
Good luck in all your action!