PGA Tour - Travelers Championship
US Open Recap, TPC River Highlands, DFS
My hot streak
Okay, I am just going to say this right now. It is unrealistic for me to keep this going. Assuming the odds were fair, the chances of hitting 65-1, 10-1, and 50-1 back-to-back-to-back are 32,500-1. This is not me saying to ignore my newsletter and picks this week, but more to make sure expectations are reasonable. Is it possible I pick the outright winner a 4th week in a row? Absolutely! Is it likely that I hit a 4th week in a row? Absolutely not.
Long term profitable betting in gold is and will continue to be to grinding profits week-to-week with a sprinkling of outright winners along the way that boost our overall results. We have hit a hot run of winners, but at some point we will miss one.
US Open - Recap
What a US Open!!!! First, the USGA and The Country Club did an AMAZING job in creating a course that was super tough, but also not impossible for these guys. I mean look they had a 110 yard par 3 that had the pros absolutely baffled. It was some really great golf.
I will personally sign up for having 2 outright tickets in the final group every Sunday. Obviously it is easy to stop looking when you see the headline of a 50-1 winner, but, as I said above, the important thing is that we are still grinding profits in the other parts of our dance card and we did just that with a very small profit in T10, and 1+ unit profits for T20, T40 and Head-to-Heads.
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The Travelers Championship
Okay, I know what I said, BUTTTTTT Let’s go for 4 in a row!!!!!! What do you say?!?
Tournaments after majors are always interesting as we will see who is beaten down by last week’s tough tough challenge, who might still be riding high, and who might have done so well they do not care this week (looks at JT who missed the cut right after the PGA Championship).
The PGA tour is staying in New England as they travel from Boston to Hartford to play a course that is 6,841 yards long and plays to a Par 70. I expect the winning score will be in the mid teens under par (figure -13 to -17 range). Something to note is that in 10 of the last 12 editions of this tournament the winner was decided by 1 stroke or via playoff so get ready for another big sweat on Sunday and if you are a fan or prop bets this is a market you might be able to exploit.
Last week my calculations saw value all over the board and this week it sees a bunch of value in the top 10-25 or so golfers in this tournament. Most non-major weeks I try to be between 8-10u of risk so this week I am going to be on the lower end with about 8u units of risk (NOTE: this ended up at 5u with the withdrawals of Koepka and Im) as I want to pull back a little bit given how hot the last few weeks have been:
Outright (0.25u on each):
Sungjae Im +2800 - VOID
Si Woo Kim +7000
Keith Mitchell +7500
Cameron Tringale +10000
T10 (0.25u on each):
Sungjae Im +300 - VOID
Mito Pereira +525
Keith Mitchell +700
Cameron Tringale +900
1u on Sungjae Im +137 - VOID
0.5u on Mito Pereira +230
0.5u on Si Woo Kim +300
0.5u on Keith Mitchell +320
0.25u on Brendan Steele +275
0.25u on Cameron Tringale +400
0.5u on Brook Koepka +150 - VOID
1.23u on Brendan Steele over Jason Day -123
0.86u on Tony Finau over Brooks Koepka -172 - VOID
0.55 on Keegan Bradley over Joaquinn Niemann -110
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds that are live at the time of publication.
If you want to come hang out and chat during the tournament come to:
Some week’s I drop some of my picks early there, but really this is just a great place to come chat during the tournament!.
Amazing how hot and cold those picks were. I ended up with a small loss ($72 in entry fees, got $60 back), but I will absolutely take that given I had 3 guys miss the cut!
For this week I am going with as follows (and I plan on doing $51 of risk1):
KH Lee 7,600
Good luck in all your action!
I know this is a question I get often so I am adding a little more transparency here. I have said in the past that I do not do a ton of DFS and that I usually keep it under 1u of risk and as you can obviously see here with exact numbers, that is exactly what I am doing.