PGA Tour - US Open
Canadian Open Recap, Brookline, DFS
RBC Canadian Open - Recap
As I say often “winning doesn’t mean you made a good bet and losing doesn’t mean you made a bad one” and this week was the epitome of that. My numbers told me this would be a top heavy tournament and it turned out to be just that which. Luckily it turned out positive as we had 2 of our outrights in the final group and tied for the lead on the 17th ultimately with Rory taking home his second consecutive Canadian Open for us at 10-1 and it was out second consecutive outright winner!!!!
We also were profitable over T10, T20 and Head to heads which is also lovely and we would have even been more profitable had Long not come in 21st! Our Head 2 Head’s gave us a decent sweat on Sunday with Huh making a charge at Ghim and Willet’s amazing comeback vs Wallace. In the end, I will take 71.4% ROI EVERY SINGLE WEEK!
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The US Open
I know people are split on the US Open with some people absolutely loving it and some people thinking it is pretty much a waste of time. I tend to be somewhere in the middle. I LOVE the history of the tournament, I enjoy that they do make these courses hard for the golfers, and my father is a big golfer and watching the final round on Fathers’ Day is always something special in our family, but over the last dozen or so years the USGA has gone way too far in making some of these courses almost impossible and it seems like this course will present a unique challenge1. I look at tournaments like this year’s PGA Championship as exactly what I would like to see from the US Open.
This year the American National Championship will be played at The Country Club in Brookline Mass. The Club has 27 holes and their configuration for majors is a bit odd as they have to combine pieces of their three 9-hole courses to come up with the Par 70 7,264 yard layout we will see this week.
This is about as historic a club and course as you can find and it has been the scene of US Opens, US Amateurs (men’s and women’s), and a Ryder Cup, but the last time it had any of those types of tournaments was 2013 when it hosted the US Amateur…..which was won by Matthew Fitzpatrick2. This week it is important to note that the US Open’s cut is top 60 and ties.
Last week my model was top heavy and this week it sees value all over the field so let’s get to this week’s picks (about 14u of risk):
T10 (0.25u on each):
Hideki Matsuyama +400
Harold Varner III +600
Aaron Wise +650
Seamus Power +800
1.6u on Rory McIlroy -160
0.5u on Will Zalatoris +125
0.5u on Hideki Matsuyama +160
0.5u on Harold Varner III +275
0.5u on Aaron Wise +280
0.25u on Seamus Power +333
0.25u on Russell Henley +350
1.3u on Aaron Wise -130
0.625u on Seamus Power -125
0.5u on Russell Henley +105
1.5u on Luke List over Kevin Kisner -1504
0.645 on Sam Burns over Viktor Hovland -129
0.645 on Cameron Tringale over Francesco Molinari -127
0.645 on Joaquin Niemann over Viktor Hovland -127
0.6u on Cam Young over Billy Horschel -120
0.6u on Webb Simpson over Patrick Reed -120
0.5u on Seamus Power over Russell Henley +105
Unofficial - this is unofficial as many books do not have him up on their sites, but I am going to bet this:
Bryson to miss the cut
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds that are live at the time of publication.
If you want to come hang out and chat during the tournament come to:
Make sure you signup with them as I often drop one of my picks in their golf chat a day before this is posted and am in there all weekend chatting. They have tons of great free and paywall content (if that’s your thing).
Let’s jump back in for the US Open, shall we?!?
Good luck in all your action!
If you have 11 minutes I highly recommend this fantastic video about the course
Yup, that is exactly why I grabbed his line back in February as I figured 50-1 was by far the best price I would get for him. He is currently
My model shows his fair price to be around 37-1 odds
I am personally debating better this to win 2u but we have a lot of action here so I am going to keep it as 1u for tracking purposes.