Recap - Houston Open
It is never nice to strike out completely on a card, but that is exactly what we did in Houston.
We did have Taylor Moore come T2 and give us a sweat, but unfortunately, it was not meant to be and I stupidly didn’t have him anywhere else on my card.
I am going to keep this short as this was the last bit of this I wrote and I am seeing lines moving already as I am writing this.
Valero Texas Open
The course:
The PGA Tour now heads from Austin to San Antonio for the Texas Open which dates back all the way to 1922!
This 156-person tournament takes place at TPC San Antonio’s Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course, where it has been contested since 2010. The course plays to a par 72 across ~7,435 yards.
Two key things to keep in mind:
The Masters is next week so this field is normally weaker, but in an odd twist, we have the best non-signature event field of the season thus far!! That said, it will be interesting to see how seriously the “bigger names” that are playing are taking this tournament if they have already qualified for the Masters. This is one of the main reasons I am staying away from some of the short-odds guys for outright bets like Rory, Ludvig, Hideki, and Max and though if you wanted to throw down on any of those guys outright, I would not hate it because if they are focused any of them could easily win.
While the final winning scores have been quite low, this course can play tough if the wind is blowing and traditionally plays pretty tough in the first 2 rounds. As such, 2022 was the first time since the tournament moved to TPC San Antonio that the cut line was below par (-1)!
As you can assume from point number 2 above, this course is no pushover! A number of the holes feature fairways that are a bit narrower than you’d expect and the rye grass rough can be problematic if you find it. The Bermudagrass greens are not small, but they are well-tiered so if you miss your level.
If you look back at the last grouping of champions, this course puts a premium on ball striking from the fairway and accuracy + length of the tee as there are natural hazards throughout the course.
As I mentioned last week, you can’t think about Texas golf and not talk about the wind. As of my writing this, it looks like the wind will be down on Thursday and Sunday, but will be decently present on Friday and Saturday looks like it could be downright treacherous for those who make the cut.
Prior results:
2023 - 2nd favorite Corey Conners (25-1) won his 2nd PGA Tour title by shooting -15 to beat Sam Stevens (100-1) by 1 stroke
2022 - JJ Spaun (150-1) won his first PGA Tour event by shooting -13 and beating Matt Jones (100-1) and Matt Kuchar (80-1) by 2 strokes.
2021 - Tournament favorite Jordan Spieth (12-1) shot a -18 to win in his home state to beat Charley Hoffman (30-1) by 2 strokes
2019 - Corey Conners shot -20 to win his first PGA Tour title when he beat Charley Hoffman (40-1) by 2 strokes1.
The event's 72-hole record is -27 was shot by Mike Souchak in 1955, while the lowest aggregate score was shot by Tommy Armour III (254) in 2003. Since the tournament moved to TPC San Antonio, the 72-hole record is -20 (268) by Corey Conners in 2019.
Nine men have won this tournament more than once, with Arnold Palmer and Justin Leonard leading the pack having each won 3 times. The winner of this tournament has defended his title 5 times, including Arnold Palmer who went back-to-back in 1960, 1961, and 1962!!!
Last year, we had a 1.8u profit (22.6% ROI) at the Valero Texas Open, mostly based on a 4-0 week in head-to-head matchups.
The bets:
As I prepared for this week I immediately wanted to bet on former champion Jordan Speith. It was something I looked hard at, but something in me could not pull the trigger so he will be my FOMO guy should he win. I also really looked hard at Lucas Glover and wanted to bet him, but was hoping to get over 100-1 so when I saw him down at 90, it was just a tad short for me, though I might keep an eye on his numbers to see if they drift.
As for the public market, my guy Billy Horschel is the clear runaway here. He has been playing well and I get why folks are on to him, but that makes him a complete cross-off in my book. C Bez, Aaron Rai, and Ludvig are the others who are getting plenty of public attention. I understand C Bez given his ball-striking prowess and I would love Aberg if not for his crazy short odds, but Aaron Rai is the one I will look to play in the miss-cut market as I think too many are very excited by his performance last week, and I think we see him come back down to earth here.
I already mentioned Speith, Glover, and a few others earlier, but other guys I was interested in that I passed on were Benny An (the course is too long)., Corey Conners (I know this is the only place he has won, but I think not again), Noren (the Twitter world’s darling), Davis Riley (not at these odds and too public), Hideki (he is still nursing an injury and I think he is far more focused on next week), and Tom Kim (this course feels too long for him).
Let’s get to this week’s card (about 5.7u of risk):
Outright (I am also playing these guys E/W, but know that is not something that everyone has so for my card see below):
0.46u Brian Harman 35-1
0.4u Harris English 40-1
0.25u Beau Hossler 65-1
0.2u Denny McCarthy 80-1
0.16u Andrew Putnam 100-1
0.16u Brendon Todd 100-1
0.11u Mark Hubbard 150-1
0.1u Max Greyserman 175-1
Top 10
0.25u Harris English +300
0.25u Brian Harman +350
0.125u Mark Hubbard +1000
T20
1u Brian Harman +160
0.5u Harris English +150
0.25u Beau Hossler +250
0.25u Brendon Todd +325
0.25u Max Greyserman +375
0.25u Mark Hubbard +400
Top 40
0.25u Brendon Todd +137
0.25u Max Greyserman +145
0.25u Mark Hubbard +150
As always, I am betting this as I write so these lines were live as of about 30-45min ago an I have used a bevy of books to pull them (BetOnline, FanDuel, DraftKings, Bet365, Ceasers and BetMGM).
Good luck with all your action!
The 2020 edition was canceled after the first round due to the outbreak of COVID 19