For those who do not know, the 2022-2023 English Premier League season kicks off Friday afternoon (for those of us in the USA).
I LOVE soccer. I played most of my life and got into the premier league something fierce about 15 years ago. Since them I have been a loyal Tottenham supporter (COYS!!!), but also have fell in love with beautiful game as a whole. Before I was married with kids, you would find me spending my weekends in pubs with my favorite being the 11am Sunday kick off and then staying for the 1pm and 4:30pm NFL games (yes, my liver hates me for those years).
Anyway, as we approach this new season I figure it I would take this opportunity to throw down a little action on the Prem (as requested by a couple folks who took my survey)!!
Before I get into my bets I want to give 3 context notes:
As with any futures, remember that when you bet soccer futures you are tying up your capital for like 10 months so you do not want to short change your long term bankroll
While I love soccer and have watched it very closely for years, I only really watch the EPL and I bet it more recreationally than I do seriously (e.g., my $ per unit is less, I bet way less frequently, I don’t have a model, I got by my gut mostly).1
As I said, I do not bet a lot of soccer, but I want to make sure you have proper context. Last year on EPL betting I went 51-27-6 with a profit of ~26u. I had an amazing year with futures and I really pick my spots week to week so I am not sure that return is something that is replicable.
Season Predictions!!
My favorite soccer podcast is called the Football Ramble and they make predictions each year (then laugh at each other after the season), but they also ask their listeners to make predictions so here are mine:
Premier League Winner: Liverpool
Surprise Package: Crystal Palace
Golden Boot: Harry Kane
Player of the Season2: Phil Foden
Relegated teams: Leeds United, Bournemouth, Southampton
First manager sacked: Thomas Tuchel
Most red cards: Michael Keane
Notable mad shit: Someone will get punched in the face on the pitch
Okay now that is all out of the way, let’s talk bets (4.95 units risked)!!!
1u on Liverpool (+260) / 0.25u on Tottenham (+1400) to win the Prem - I just personally think Man City at -135 is too low and my guess is at some point they start to prioritize the Champions League. Look, I am Spurs homer so I am not sure this bet makes sense, but if things fall apart for the top 2 I want a bet on Spurs.
0.7u on Tottenham Top 4 (-140) / 0.5u on Top London Club (+120) - I just think Tottenham is clearly the best of the rest.
0.25u on Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot +550 - I know Son won this last year, but Kane had a down year after having his head turned last summer. Add that too the competition now with Haaland to be the best striker in the Prem and the better wing backs on Spurs. This seems like he will be right up there.
0.5u on Leeds to get relegated +225 - I rarely make a bet and say “I hope I am wrong”, but this is one of those times as I want their American coach and two young American players to be successful, but I just think they are in real trouble. Last year I bet them to finish in the bottom 10 and that was before they lost Raphina and Kalvin Phillips.
0.5u on Southampton to get relegated +300 - This has a lot of protentional to be bad with a very young squad and if they get in a relegation scrap they will be asked whether the young kids will be able to pull themselves out. I do not think they will
0.25u on Brentford to get relegated +250 - You may have seen me say this on twitter, but they took 22 points from their final 12 games last year mainly driven by the excellent Christian Ericksen. Well he is in Manchester now and they do not really have a replacement, and I am not super impressed with this guy from Sampdoria but he is at least something. I expect them to return to their prior form so I am taking a small shot.
0.25u on Bournemouth to be bottom on Christmas +350 - Sorry Cherries, but I think this going to be a bad season and I expect them to be bad from the start.
0.25u on Thomas Tuchel to be first manager to leave +1400 - I could be wrong but I think Chelsea is going to be a disaster
0.25u on Crystal Palace top half finish +240 - This is just really a feeling I have. They were really pretty good last year and their xG was higher than you would expect. I also kinda like Viera. I might be weird
0.25u on Crystal Palace top 6 finish +1200 - see above.
0.25u on Phil Foden as Play of the Year +1800 - Look, Man City is really good. I know I am not breaking any news there, but I think we start to see young Mr Foden really start to emerge as well as using the World Cup as a spring board this year.
For those who do not mine adding a few more units to their card - I like Wolves and Everton to both finish bottom half but both are -300 which is a LOT of juice to pay.
If you want someone who seriously handicaps soccer and does so for FREEEEEE, check out my guy @MrBradThomas on Twitter. He is legit as they come, even if my golf picks are better LOL - Just Kidding. Seriously, he is awesome so make sure to give him a follow
PFA Player of the Year