First and foremost I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!! This is honestly my favorite secular holiday that there is. I am VERY lucky to have the friends, family, and life that I do and I, like many people, should do a better job of recognizing that and letting folks in my life know how much they mean to me so make sure you join me in taking the day to remind yourself and those around your how lucky you are.
Speaking of being thankful, I am super thankful for all of you who read/subscribe to this newsletter and those of you who come to hang out at the Gamblers Paradise Discord. Every time I think about how tired I am and that I do not want to do a post, I am reenergized by the faith you all show in me!
Also, how could I not love a day full of football (that I will degenerately gamble on) and food?!?!
Week 11 Recap
Well, that was the bounceback we needed!! It was not a massive week, but I will happily take a 4.5u gain and a 21.5% ROI.
As you can see below, we are staring down a positive November with one more week to go. Let’s hope we can keep that number positive and build on last week!
One of the best parts of last week was that all the content did well!! The model went 6-4 for a 2.4u gain and my add on’s went 10-9 and provided an additional 2.1u of profit! It is so nice when a plan comes together! Now, the trick is keeping it rolling and that is just my plan.
As you can see from the chart above, we had a couple of small positive weeks and it felt like we had a bit of momentum before a big kick in the nuts last week so I am hopeful we are back on the right track, and Week 10 was just a blip on the radar.
I know folks always like to ask where we were at this point last year - Week 11 last year saw us have a 5.6u profit and that brought the season total to a profit of 3.8u so yes we are still far behind, but loads of time to gain ground. Just remember I finished last year with close to a 35u profit so we can absolutely make a run here.
Alright, let’s get to football!
Thanksgiving Football
We have 3 really fun games for the holiday!!!
Game 1: Bills @ Lions (Thursday 12:30 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per the ActionNetwork, Since 2004, road favorites on Thanksgiving are 19-5 against the spread
Per the ActionNetwork, Since 2005, road favorites on Thanksgiving vs the Lions are 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Detroit has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on a league-high 31.7% of drives, while 46% of the Bills’ drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, the highest rate in the NFL
The Bills are the 2nd-best offense in the NFL converting 3rd downs (50%), while the Lions are the worst 3rd-down defense in the NFL allowing conversations 50% of the time
The Lions are the 5th-best offense in the NFL converting red zone trips into TDs (71.1%), while the Bills are the 3rd best red zone defense, allowing a TD 45.2% of the time
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This game is a really interesting one. The Bills have not looked good of late, but I think they aren’t getting the credit they deserve for what a beatdown that was, especially given the tough circumstances of not being able to meet normally and then the last-minute move and travel to Detroit. On the flip side, the Lions beat the shit out of a Giants team that I do not think is very good. A lot of folks saw that win and think it says a ton about the Lions being good but count me in the dubious category. Now my model thinks this line should be 10.4 so it is well within the margin of error, but I will use Bills in some exotics as I have heard the money is pouring in on the Lions and I like being on the same side as the books. I like the over in this game as I expect the Bills to run it up.
Are you someone who loves betting and does not want to spend your day talking to your family?!? Come hang out with us at Gamblers Paradise!! It is a free discord where we talk about all things gambling (e.g., picks, angles, bankroll management, strategy)
Game 2: Giants @ Cowboys (Thursday 4:30 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Per Jon Machota, In the last 14 NFC East games at AT&T Stadium have seen the Cowboys go 13-1 with an average score of 35.2 to 19.5; 4-0 vs the Giants with an average score of 34 to 21. Further from Father Jon, Dak is 25-6 vs the NFC East, including 9-2 vs the Giants and both losses were his rookie year
Per Michael Gehlken, the Cowboys have not allowed a 1st quarter TD this season
Per Rich Hribar, The Giants are now 32nd in yards per play on first down (4.4) and 32nd in yards per play allowed on first down (6.9)
Per RJ Ochoa, the Cowboys are 3-7 in their last 10 Thanksgiving games and have lost their last 3
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on NY Giants +9.5 (-106)
My 2 cents - I tried to warn everyone last week that the Giants were due for an ass-whooping and boy did they get one from the Lions. The Lions are better when they can run the ball and allow Goff to sit in play action and not really hurt them and the Giants were unable to stop that at all. The Giants also continue to pick up injuries (unsurprisingly given their turf is awful), and I think they might be getting to a point of no return. They face a Cowboys team that is coming off one of the most impressive wins I can remember. This team is starting to really hit its stride balancing an attacking D, top-tier special teams, and an offense that has vastly improved since Dak came back (sorry Cooper Rush fans, but the stats are clear). I think the Giants try to run the ball and shorten this game so both the model and I think there is a little value on the Giants getting so many points, but I am going to pass as I think the Cowboys really could blow them out if that pass rush gets going. I like the 1H under and think the Giants team total under is a really good play as I think their path to being competitive is Wink Martindale drawing up a scheme that confounds the Cowboys.
Game 3: Patriots @ Vikings (Thursday 8:20 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Kirk Cousins is 10-41 vs teams with a winning record
Per the SportingNews, Kirk Cousins is 3-4 on Thursday nights, but he has completed only 65 percent of his passes for 1,989 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
The Patriots have yet not scored a TD in the first quarter this season
Vikings are 7-0 in 1-score games
Titanic Model Output - 2u on New England +2.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - What a matchup this is. One team got their asses kicked up and down the field by the Cowboys and one BARELY beat the Jets with a last-second punt return TD (the first PR TD this year). I think Belichick will be watching that Cowboys tape and realizing that if he can hit Cousins early he will drop his eyes. The question will be whether the Patriots will be able to score enough to push the Vikings to the brink. I think this is an overrated Vikings team that folks are going to get a pass of their ass whooping last week and folks just saw the Pats barely score 10 last week so they are underrated. Give me the Pats and their nasty D and the under in this game.
Model Plays:
2u play
Patriots +2.5
0.5u play
Giants +9.5
Parlays, Teasers, Other:
Pending - 1.2u 6pt teaser -120 on SF -2 / Dallas -2
My Thanksgiving Day Teaser
1u 7pt teaser +124 on Dal -2.5 / Bills -2.5 / NE +9.5
0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Patriots +8.5 / Eagles -1
0.6u 6pt teaser -120 on Panthers +8 / Titans +8
0.5u on DAL / NYG 1H under 21.5 (-103)
0.5u on NYG under 17.5 Team Total (-145)
0.25u on NE / Min 1H under 21 (-120)
0.25u on NE / Min under 42.5 (-108)
Player Props:
0.5u on Kirk Cousins to throw a pick (+100)
0.25u on Dalton Schultz TD (+200)
0.25u on Stefon Diggs over 89.5 yards receiving (-115)
Edit Note: the original post said in the Thanksgiving teaser “Bills -9.5”. That is the current line and not the tease number so it’s been corrected to Bills-2.5