Thank you
This is one of my favorite days of the entire year. I am truly thankful for my family, my health, my family’s health, and for all of you all. When I started this Substack, I really thought that it might get about 25 readers and then it would be gone away in the first few months.
Instead, there are hundreds of subscribers, and each month these newsletters are viewed by thousands of people. That is stunning to me, but what might be even more amazing is those of you who reach out to tell me how the info in this Substack has helped you build a healthier relationship with gambling and some of you have even chosen to provide financial support to the Substack.
I want to wish you all a happy, healthy, and safe Thanksgiving!
-T
Week 11 Recap
We FINALLY have the week I was looking for as we cash a really nice 6.9u profit! I have spoken the last couple of weeks about how we were so close to profits and one game here or there would have given it to us. Well, we didn’t even get the luck this week but still had a really nice profit.
One running thing I like to do is cover the good bets that lose and bad bets that win so let’s talk about this week:
Bears ML was the right bet. They led that entire game and absolutely crushed the Lions. They had a 98.2% win probability with 4min left. The only problem is they run Matt Eberflus’ defense and they can’t stop a runny nose late.
Rams -1 / ML was a bad bet. Yes, we pushed the spread bet and won our parlay, but they really did not deserve to win that game.
Dolphins -7 (in our teaser) was a bad bet. That team was unlucky with injuries, but we were lucky to get that leg to push
Bills / Jets over 39. The Bills kicker missed a PAT that cost us the push.
Vikings ML - Had the lead late and let the stupid Broncos come back and win to cost us our 7-1 parlay.
All in all, a nice week that I hope is the start of a late-season push for us to get back to where we need to be!
Thanksgiving Day games
I am usually all about only betting when you see value, even if that means you have days or weeks with no or very little action. That said, Thanksgiving Day is one of the few days of the year I say “Fuck That” and I want action on all the games.
Here are some fun Thanksgiving trends:
Per John Ewing, Since 2005 the Lions are 4-0 ATS as a favorite, but 4-10 as an underdog
Per John Ewing, Since 2005, NFL favorites on Thanksgiving are 34-18 (65%) ATS.
Dallas is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 on Thanksgiving, with Dak 1-5
Per Bobby Belt, the Cowboys have scored 40+ points in 12 of the last 24 home starts by Dak.
Other Plays
Teasers
1u 7pt Teaser - Dallas -6.5 / Seahawks +14.5 / Browns +8 (+131)
0.5u 7pt Teaser - Dallas -6.5 / Bears +10 / Bills +10 (+127)
Parlays
Props (0.25u each)
Jared Goff over 0.5 INT (+120)
CeeDee Lamb ATD (-126)
Brock Purdy over 0.5 INT (+105)