Thanksgiving Football Picks
Firstly I would like to say thank you to you all who have subscribed to my site (free and paying). I started this before the season not really knowing if anyone would sign up or give a shit about my NFL and NBA thoughts. While I am still not sure if anyone gives a shit about my thoughts, a number of folks signed up and for that I want to say “Thank You!!!”
I hope you all have a wonderful and SAFE holiday, and please please please remember to not drive if you have been drinking.
Just a reminder that my NBA plays are behind a paywall and I am running a black Friday sale that will get you my picks for 20% off for the next year!
Also, be on the lookout around 3pm on Friday, I just may be publishing my NBA picks for FREE on Black Friday!
#TitanicModel output:
1u Plays:
Dallas -7.5 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
This is always one of my favorite football days of the season and somehow we are getting a 6 pack of teams who honestly could not have looked worse last week. 4 of them got stomped and amazingly the other 2 are the Bears and the Lions.
Also, be careful on holiday weekends!! As The Sharp Plays notes (full article here) these tend to be very public weekends.
Bears @ Lions - This game is going to be bad. Like really bad. I do not want to watch this game, but it is Thanksgiving and my other option is talking to my family. My model says this line should be +3.2 and given it is at 3 it is well within my margin of error so I am not going to be betting this one, but would I be shocked if the Lions win? No. Do I think Andy Dalton should be able to carve (sorry for the holiday pun) up the Lions D? Yes.
Raiders @ Cowboys - I am not sure which of these teams looked worse. I was right in my evaluation of the Raiders / Cinci game as that line never made sense to me and that never looked like it was going to be a close. Cowboys STRUGGLED on offense, especially on the OL, but it looks like Tyron Smith will be back and I think we will se a HUGE difference with how the OL plays. My sources within the Star in Frisco that they might see CD Lamb activated from concussion protocol as soon as today so I think Cowboys get this done. Now I find it interesting this line has gone from -7 to -9 and back down to -7.5 in some places and still -9 in others. I LOVED it at -7 so if you want to buy down to that number I think it might be smart.
Bills @ Saints - Speaking of teams that looked terrible last weekend here are the Bills who got run all over the Colts and the Saints who couldn’t stop the Oklahoma offense that Philly are running. I think the Bills win this one and win it by a bunch. I think their D is going to be a big problem for the Saints QB’s and if Kamara plays, I do not expect him to be near 100%. My Model does not it is bet worthy, but I personally picked up some action when this was Bills -4.5 and if you want to get in I think you should do it before it gets any higher.
Parlays and Teasers:
Every year I take a swing at a Thanksgiving Parlay (aka all 3 games) :
0.25u parlay +1902- Chicago -165 / Chi-Det U41.5 / Dal -340 / Dal-LV O50.5 / Buf -260 / Buf-NO O45.5
1u parlay +165 - Dal -340 / Buf -260 / Cin -210
1u 6pt tease +160 - Dal -1.5 / Buf pk / Jets +8.5
0.5u parlay +438 - Buf -6 / TB -3 / Cin -210
Daily Fantasy:
Oh man, we were set up for such a nice DFS day and I LOVED that Moore play and it came through, but Dak killed us.
I love this Thursday only game every year so let’s take a swing
QB - Dak 6,900
RB - Montgomery 6,000 / Pollard 5,600
WR- Gallup 5,900 / Diggs 7,900 / Raymond 4,600
TE- Kmet 3,700
Flex- Schultz 5,300
DST - Bears 3,000
Best of luck in all your action!