The 2021-2022 NBA season is almost here!
Hi!!!!!
I apologize for the length of this post but with the NBA kicking off next week and I thought this was a great time to discuss my plan for the NBA season. If you want to skip down to the “The Plan” section below, I understand, but I prefer that you read this whole post.
If you were with me last year, you know we had a great NBA regular season (Jan 11 - Apr 30) as my TitanicModel went 252-234-7 for a profit of 24.7u or $2,471.031 and had 5.4% return on your investment.
Month by month results:
January: +4.2u
February: +0.4u
March: +1.6u
April: +6.16
I pride myself on my honesty and I think I can do better. As such, since the end of the NBA finals, I have spent over 100 hours tearing apart my model, reading statistics / modeling materials (I know, I am super cool) and talking to veteran gamblers that I trust. What we now have is a brand new model that should give us even BETTER results!!
This new model takes econometric methodologies to create a prediction for each game both from a spread perspective and for totals…..that’s right, I am adding totals this season!!!
So where does that leave us…….Well here is……THE PLANNNNNNN (haha sorry, I never get to build suspense)
THE PLAN
I am going to start charging for my NBA picks. I know many of you will have questions, so I have tried to answer them here, but please email me if you have any others (Titanic.Gambler@gmail.com)
How much does this cost? $50 per month2. Only monthly plans are available
When does it start? November 1, 2021, signups will open Oct 31, 2021.
Are there any guarantees? I am going to assume / run my model as if every bettor is a $100/unit bettor (aka a $10k bankroll), which means that as long as I turn a 0.5u profit each month, you will not be losing any money…..SO here is my deal, if my model doesn’t get clear 0.5u of profit in a month, you get the next month free. Based on this math, you would have profited over 2.32k3 using my model last year. In short, I am not guaranteeing anything, but the deal above will be in place.
What do I get with my membership? Every day you will receive something that looks like this (NOTE- I made up the numbers in this for to use as an example so ignore them):
Each game will have a similar structure that shows the “game number”, the time it starts4, where the game is being played, the teams (home team on the bottom row), my model’s projection of the total and spread5, what is posted by a sportsbook at that moment, and what my model advises that I wager6
What about your NFL Picks? Those will remain free for at least the rest of the regular season.
Will you still track results? YES! I still am VERY committed to #Transparency and will still do the weekly recaps and those posts will be publicly available (aka not only for subscribers) so if you want to see how November goes before jumping on board, that is totally cool, but take a look at question 10 below as to why you may not want to wait.
What about free plays? Good question. I reserve the right to send out my plays for free 1 day a week. If there are any 3 unit plays that day, subscribers will get a 2nd alert that day as ONLY subscribers get 3u plays - the free plays will show there is a 3u play, but will now show what side it is.
Do I have to bet $100 per unit to join? Absolutely not! You should be better 1% of your bankroll per unit and I implore you not to bet more than you can afford to. That said you will see guarantee is based of of units, not a dollar value. I only guarantee 0.5u profit.
How confident do you feel in your new model? I think it will be great, but that is why I am starting on Nov 1. That will give my model time to build up valuable data and allow me to tune the model (fancy model words for making it more accurate). I also feel great because if I have completely wasted my time on my new model (I hope that isn’t the case) then I can always use my model from last year and as you will see above, I cleared 0.5u of profit in 3 of 4 months7!
Will the cost always be $50? That is the plan right now and will not change prior to Feb 1. That said, I reserve the right to raise the price going into a new month, HOWEVER, if you sign up in November 2021 and stay with me without letting your membership lapse, I will honor your $50 per month price for the entirety of of the 2021-2022 NBA season AND entirety of the 2022-2023 NBA season.
What about NBA Futures? As I mentioned above, this does not start until Nov 1 so I will have my NBA futures released publicly like I do my NFL picks.
What about all the legal jargon I normally see on these sites? Yup, we’ve got that too. Please see the following post:
Sooooooo are you in?!?
If you were a $100 per unit bettor
My system requires me to set an annual plan price….I set it at 10K. Please don’t select that
$2,471 profit - $150 in monthly fees (Jan, Feb and April - March would have been free) = $2,321
Quoted in Eastern time
Quoted from the home team perspective
Top row is the bet on the total, bottom row will be which side to take.
If I change back to my old model, I will absolutely be open and transparent about it. The example picture above would be very similar to what you receive, but the content would be slightly different