Week 13 Recap
“It’s embarrassing, what we put out there in such a big game for us. That’s the word to describe it—embarrassing” - Trevor Lawrence after this week’s game but he could just as easily be describing my performance this NFL season.
It frankly hasn’t been good enough, not even close.
Last week saw the model go 4-7 and lose 4u and my picks went 7-15 and lost 3.4u. When I take a look at what is happening and I turn a critical eye toward myself I believe I am just getting too cute and doing too much each week so this week I am going to keep things a bit more simple.
We had some future bets settle during Week 13:
Saints over 8.5 - Loss
Vikings over 9.5 - Win
I am keeping an eye on the player ones as well and I think we might have a few that settle in the coming couple of weeks.
Thursday Night Football
And we are right back to awful matchups
Game 1: Raiders @ Rams (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
After winning by one score the last 3 weeks, the Raiders are now 3-6 in 1-score games
Titanic Model Output - 0.5u on LA Rams +6 (-110)
My 2 cents - I have said it before and I will keep saying it every single week, but the Raiders are an entirely different team when they commit to running with Jacobs early in games. I know in the world of analytics it is not sexy to talk about establishing the running game and it is viewed as an archaic way of thinking about football, but please watch this Raiders team going back to the beginning of the season and you will see exactly that. They play a Rams team that honestly is just playing out the string here. They gave Seattle a bit of a fight last week, but honestly, they should not have covered. One thing to keep in mind with this game is that this is going to essentially be a Raiders home game as the Rams have the worst home crowd and there are plenty of Cali-based Raiders fans who will happily snap up those tickets.
My Verdict -
I am passing
I am passing on betting a prop but if I was going to I would bet Tyler Higbee to score a TD +260 and might even look at him for first TD scorer at +1400
0.575u 6pt teaser -115 on Raiders pk / Ravens +8.5