Week 10 Recap
Well, last week sucked. Seattle made it interesting late but ultimately their missed 4th down conversion and fumble in the RedZone led to the first 3u loss of the year.
Ultimately the model had a really rough week going 3-7 for a 5.3u loss. My personal plays also had a disappointing performance losing 1.9u. Just unfortunately really can’t get going in the right direction and I am still looking for answers. Last week, the totals worked out, but other stuff killed us. It just seems each week there is something that bites me in the butt.
That all said, I still have faith in myself and my picks, but totally get it if you all don’t. One thing will / has always remained true - I still will never put something in these newsletters that I won’t bet myself so for whatever comfort it is, just know I am feeling the pain too.
Alright, let’s get to Thursday Night Football!
Thursday Night Football
This should actually be a fun game!
Game 1: Titans @ Packers (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Weather Report - This game will be VERY COLD
Stat that might matter -
Per Football Outsiders, the Packers have the 3rd worst special teams unit in the NFL
Tennessee has the highest RedZone TD conversion percentage at 76.2%
Tennessee’s defense only gives up a 3rd down conversion 27.9% of the time, the best in the NFL
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Tennessee +3 (+100)
My 2 cents - I have been saying for weeks that Rodgers had been playing well and it was the Packers WRs were letting them down, but really it was the running game that had them going and going well last week. That running game forced Dallas to switch to man D late and they ran man beaters to perfection and that led to the comeback. The Titans are a zone team. This is a huge coaching mismatch with Vrabel vs LaFleur and I think Vrabel has his team fully ready to go here. Let’s also not make it like the Packers beat the hell out of Dallas, they were down 14 going into the 4th quarter and only win because of Dallas’ awful penalties. As FoxSports’ David Helman asked, “Is Green Bay back or was this peak Cowboys’ behavior?” I think the latter. This screams letdown spot for the Packers coming off an emotional win and if they couldn’t stop Tony Pollard and Malik Davis last week how in the world will they stop Derrick Henry?
Titans +3
I like the under but am not betting it
0.25u on Titans over 142.5 rushing yards -115