Week 6 Recap
Well, that sucked. Last week, in my intro I said “I REALLY like the slate of games this week. That is either a really good thing or a really bad thing HAHA. Let’s find out!”….Well, we found out and it was a really bad thing as you can see here:
Now two takeaways (that will echo some of what I said in my Gambling Lessons Learned series):
For about the last 15 minutes of the early game window, we had EVERY big play go against our picks (e.g., Colts scoring their last-minute TD, Tampa Bay missing the 2pt conversion and not being able to get multiple 3rd and long stops, Jamar Chase breaking a tackle and scoring a long TD to close out that game). It is easy to point at all of those and say “Good Bets, Bad Beats”, but I do not think that is right. The Buccaneers, for example, got beat up and down the football field all game as it seemed they were ill-prepared (more on this in the weekly newsletter). Always be careful not to fall into the trap of calling every last-minute loss a “bad beat”.
You are seeing why bankroll management is so important. Yes, it SUCKS to be down over 10 units this season. I am NOT enjoying it, to say the least, but it is hardly earth-shattering. If you were with me last season you will remember that we had close to 35u of profit at the end of the season and that include 2 weeks that were worse than the one we just experienced.
I know some folks like to use last year as a guide post so after Week 6 last year we were +13.6u of profit.
Programming Note: the Thursday of Week 9 (11/3) - I will have a check-in on player futures and the following week (11/10) I will have a check-in on team futures.
Thursday Night Football
Game 1: Saints @ Cardinals (Thursday 8:15 pm)
Stat that might matter -
Arizona has now scored 3 points in the first quarter, 29 points in the 1st half, and has not led at halftime
Arizona will get Nuk Hopkins back but lost LG Justin Pugh
Per Frankie Taddeo, the Cardinals are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ARS in their last 8 at home
Titanic Model Output - 2u on Saints +1.5 (+102)
My 2 cents - I have seen NOTHING from the Cardinals that make me think we should believe in them. As can be seen by “Stats that might matter” above, this team is at its worst when Kliff has scripts things out. I said it last week and it remains true, the Cards’ offense is one-dimensional and this Dennis Allen D should be able to take advantage.
Verdict -
I really loved the Saints last week and so did my model….This week is much the same Who Dat?!?.
Pending - 0.5u 6pt teaser -120 Denver +10.5 / New Orleans +7.5
0.25u on Chris Olave to score a TD +185
0.6u under 21.5 1H (-120)