Week 1 Recap
Well, that was a wild and fun Week 1!! I told you my model likes dogs early and Week 1 showed you why. Things can get wild!
We had a profit and I am never going to be upset about that but when I dig into the details I see some things to improve on.
The details show that if you played all 14 model plays you would have gone 8-6 with a 2.8u profit and 27% ROI (spread line in the report below). That said, the 1u plays went an astounding 6-2 for 3.4u of profit and 42.2% ROI1. This is something I will absolutely be keeping an eye on as we move forward to see if I need to adjust the margins of error or disregard the 0.5u play entirely.
Another thing I am starting to look at is Money Lines bets. Had you bet all the money lines on my model’s picks you would have had a really significant profit given the juicy lines, BUT I would caution everyone on just blindly betting those this week. 1 week of performance is not meaningful ← also a lesson to learn from the teams’ performances in Week 1.
One of the less favorable results from Week 1 is that my exotics were not profitable. As you can see from the chart above the Teasers really killed my performance this week as it cost us 2.1u.
Parlays were profitable as we hit the Underdog Parlay of the week at close to 10-1 odds, but missed on the rest. I added props for the first time and those turned a nice little profit. This is something I will look to continue to include each week, but will absolutely be keeping these tight early as they are not model driven. Hence, I want to make sure they are sustainably profitable before expanding the risk.
Thursday Night Football
Chargers @ Chiefs (Thursday 8:15pm) -
Stats that might matter -
KC is 15-2 in Weeks 1 through 4 with Mahomes at QB
In the last 4 years the Chiefs are 27-6 at home, but only 1-3 vs the LA Chargers
Titanic Model Output - 1u on LA Chargers +4.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - I was wrong about the Cardinals / Chiefs game last week. While I was not that surprised by the Cards not being that good, I was pleasantly surprised by how quickly KC got their offense together and Mahomes will win the MVP if that continues. That said we have to ask ourselves “was that because the Chiefs are good or the Cardinals are bad?” I think it can be both, and we will see more of it in this game. I really am unimpressed with the Chargers’ defensive scheme and Mahomes had some amazing passes last week. LAC will also be missing Keenan Allen so I wonder how they keep up with what I expect to be a freely scoring Chiefs offense. I know they should have JC Jackson back but given that the Chiefs do not have a star WR anymore.
Verdict -
I am personally going to go with my model and will do this for a half unit.
0.5u 6pt Teaser +150 LAC +10.5 / Steelers +7.5 / Vikings +8.5
0.575u 6pt Teaser -115 Vikings +8.5 / Min-Phi o44.5 ← I am jumping on this early
0.25u on Josh Palmer over 45.5 receiving yards -115
I hope you will come to hang out with us on the discord!!!
Losses were Raiders and Cardinals