Week 2 Recap
Week 2 was not good but hardly a disaster as we lost 2.6 units. This is why bankroll management is so important as losing weeks will happen and you can absolutely have multiple down weeks in a row. If you practice proper bankroll management you will easily weather the storms and have plenty of bankroll left to attack the other weeks1.
In week 2 we saw losses across all risk levels which is not great (technical term). though there were a couple of bright spots.
The Titanic Model went 7-5 for a small profit of 0.9u to bring its total to 3.2u of profit on the season. Props went 3-22 for a small weekly 0.45u profit. I have been really encouraged by the performance of these, but still remain cautious and will continue to do limited risk.
On a more negative note - Teasers continue to be a disaster area. I am going to pull back a bit on the risk I am doing on these as I clearly do not have a good feel for them right now. Parlays went 0-for but that is not super unexpected as these are higher-risk bets so missing out can happen, but when you hit you can hit big.
Thursday Night Football
Steelers @ Browns (Thursday 8:15 pm) -
Stats that might matter -
Browns blew a 13pt lead within the final 2 minutes last week, that was the first time in 21 years that has happened
Per Adam Schefter, The Browns will be without Clowney, Winovich, and James (some of these guys are now on IR)
The underdog has won the last 3 games in this matchup
Titanic Model Output - 1u on Steelers +4.5 (-110)
My 2 cents - Look I know the Cleveland DL is pretty good and the Steelers OL is rather suspect, but something about this is making me and my model lean towards the Steelers and I think that thing is Jacoby Brissett. He is really bad. I am a big believer in actually watching games and the Jets were in that game down 17-14 and driving until a holding penalty at the end of the 3rd quarter derailed the drive and forced them to kick the FG to tie the game. The Browns scored two TDs to take their 13-point lead that they would eventually relinquish. Also, Thursday night games can get a bit wacky.
Verdict -
Ultimately Brissett is not someone I trust to hold big leads or cover big lines so I am going with my model and betting the Steelers +4.5
0.25u on Pat Freiermuth to score a TD +2603
0.5u 6pt teaser +150 Dallas +7 / Texans +8.5 / Steelers +10.5
0.5u 6pt teaser +150 Dallas +7 / Ravens +3 / Falcons +7.5
0.25u Long Shot Parlay of the Week - Like this tweet and subscribe to the substack to enter the giveaway contest!!
I hope you will come to hang out with us on discord!!!
I am sure some of you who were here last year are wondering where the graph showing results over time has gone. I will bring that back around week 5 or week 6 once we have enough data to show a decent trend.
One of these wins was on the under for Trey Lance’s passing yards. I NEVER want to win an under-bet based on an injury, especially such a catastrophic one as we saw, but that is how it goes.
This is anytime TD bet, but I do also like him 14-1 to score the first TD if you wanted something fun to bet with some pocket change