# To Hedge or Not to Hedge

So, if you followed my picks in the Friday column we are 2 legs into a 37.4-1 parlay and I think it is a perfect time to talk about hedging!!

This is a question of risk tolerance for you and that is something I cannot tell you. You need to decide for yourself what you want to do, but I can lay out the options (I am using Bovada lines for this).

Option 1 - Let it Ride!

Rams win and Bills win and we cash our $25 ticket and walk away with $960 ($25 investment + $935 of profit)

Option 2 - Wait until game the 4th leg

If Rams lose and you lose $25

If Rams win, you are looking at betting Chiefs -120. What you would now do is figure out how much exposure you want. Assuming you want to minimize it (and like round numbers) you would put 330 on the Chiefs.

If Bills win you walk away with $630 ($960 from Opt 1 minus $330 invested here)

If Chiefs win you walk away with $605 ($330 bet at -120 wins $275 so $275+$330 = $605)

Option 3 - Roll with Bills, but I am scared of TB12

You are looking at betting Tampa -140. What you would now do is figure out how much exposure you want. Assuming you want to minimize it (and like round numbers) you would put 350 on the Tampa.

If Rams win you walk away with $610 ($960 from Opt 1 minus $350 invested here)

If Bucs win you walk away with $600 ($350 bet at -140 wins $250 so $350+$250 = $600)

WARNING!!!!!! If Bucs AND Chiefs win you lose both bets!

Option 4 - Cash me out1

This is for those who want close to zero risk

Before the Bucs/ LAR game you bet $240 on Bucs -140

If Bucs win, you walk away with $411 ($240+$171 = $411)

If Rams win, your parlay is still alive and you lost the $240

If Rams win, then you bet $330 on Chiefs -120

If Chiefs win, you walk away with $365 ($605 - $240 from the earlier hedge)

If Bills win you walk away with $390 ($960-$240-$330)

What should you do? That again is up to you entirely. For ease of use for the Model plays and tracking I am going to do a modified version of Option 4, so here is what I am going to do:

Before TB/LAR - I am doing 250 on Bucs -140

If Bucs win, I walk away with ~$428

If Rams win, my parlay is alive

If Rams win the first game, I am going to place $250 on Chiefs -120 (or whatever the line is then)

If Chiefs win, I walk away with $208

If Bills win and my parlay wins I walk away with $460 ($960 - 500 for the hedges)

Now what you will likely notice is that this is not a perfect hedge as my outcomes are not all the same. Personally, I am very worried about the Bucs blowing up my parlay and I hate the double whammy that could come from Option 3 so I am minimizing my personal exposure to the Rams losing, while keeping the higher upside of the Bills winning.

Good luck in your action!!

I am doing some rounding to the nearest dollar here

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