US Open Hedge / R4 Matchups
I know it is late but wanted to touch on hedging.
We are sitting with Fitz 50-1 and Willy Z 28-1.1
Usually in golf it is very hard to find or construct a perfect hedge, but our friends at BetOnline have done us a favor and presented us with:
Now, I have run my model and it is saying the fair value of this play really should be about -115. What should you do?!? Well that is up to you and your risk tolerance and I can’t tell you what is right for you.
As I said on twitter, I feel great about where we stand so I am going to let it ride for now….If this line were to drop to about -120, then I would probably hedge and what a hedge would look like for me would be $240 to win $200. That way not matter what happens my outrights cash me a nice profit but obviously I am still dancing with the dudes who brought us to that prom.
Why am I going to let it ride?
I feel like Fitz or Willy Z is going to win this thing, thought Rahm and Scheffler do scare me.
Even if one of these guys do not win, given how the rest of my tickets are set up I feel like I am likely going to walk away with at least a 2-3u profit
I am personally feeling less risk adverse than I normally would be given how the last 2 weeks have gone (over 3k in profits).
For my model I am going to let it ride. If that changes I will let you know as soon as I make a wager, but you should make sure you do what is best for you and your bankroll!!
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Round 4 Matchups
I often get asked about doing round by round match-ups and as I told someone earlier today my calcs are optimized to figuring out odds for the end of the tournament so my round by round betting is all by feel and frankly I risk very little so I do not post about it.
That said it dawned on me that if players are tied going into Round 4 then I should be able to use my model to run matchups for the final round of a tournament!!!
Let's try it and see how these go:
1.44u on Rory McIlroy over Sam Burns -144
1.23u on Adam Hadwin over Joel Dahmen -123
Good luck in all your action!