Week 12 NFL Picks / Free NBA Plays
Happy Black Friday!!!!!
I hope that you and your families had a wonderful, meaningful and safe Thanksgiving. As you know, I am running a Black Friday sale of my NBA package.
If you are not sure whether you should sign-up for the NBA package, here is what one (seemingly happy) subscriber told me earlier this week about me getting more subscribers:
Given that it is a holiday I wanted to share today’s card with you all (you will find it at the bottom of this email/post). Please note what you are seeing is and unedited version of what my paying subscribers received around 11:30am today.
#TitanicModel output:
1u Plays:
Cinci -3.5 (-109)
TB -3 (-114)
NE -6.5 (-119)
Phi -3.5 (-114)
Jax +2 (-110)
LAR -1.5 (-115)
0.5u Plays:
Min +3 (-110)
BAL -3.5 (-110)
Game by Game analysis:
Steelers @ Bengals - I told you I loved Cinci last week and they came through. I am going to tell you I love them again here. I am not entirely sure I get this line being where it is. I think this should be a TD and my model thinks it should be 9.1. I know it sounds silly given the points they put up on Sunday Night, but I honestly do not think they can score enough
Bucs @ Colts - I know Colts rushing offense has been something to behold and while Wentz did have that TERRIBLE pick 6 against the Titans, he has been oddly safe with the ball, with only 6 turnovers this season (19 through this many games last year). That all said, I think Bucs are the play and I like that it’s less than a TD and it will be huge if Vita Vea comes back. They are going up against a rest differential, but they didnt have a particularly hard game Monday night and I think Brady against a Tampa 2 D is going to have a great game.
Panthers @ Dolphins - I am not a huge fan of Tua but he has been playing well and Cam can’t seem to throw the ball more than 8 yards down field. I am not sure the Panthers should be favored on the road vs anyone.
Titans @ Pats - My model like that Pats and I know this is going to sound silly given how things are going, but I think the right bet here is the Titans. I am not sure I can put into words why, but this is my gut feeling. I think Vrabel has his team ready to go for this one.
Eagles @ Giants - The Giants finally fired Jason Garret, but sadly for those in the North Jersey / NY / CT area I do not think that is going to matter. Your team is not very good while the Eagles have been playing well. Hurts still isn’t throwing the ball great (I do not think he ever will), but kudos to Philly for running the Oklahoma offense and doing it well. I do not think the Giants have the D to stop it. I am staying away because I do not know why this line isn’t +6.5, seems fishy to me
Falcons @ Jags - A battle of my 31st rated team @ my 29th rated team. Oh the horror of this game. This might be the worst game of this week and that is saying something
Jets @ Texans - Zach Wilson comes back and just in time for the rest of the QB room to go on the COVID list. Texans get a great win last week, but let’s not kid ourselves that this team is any good, they ain’t. My model says this line should be -2.9 and it is -2.5, but frankly I am not sure either of these teams have any business being favored. I lean towards Jets with the points
Chargers @ Broncos - What do you all make of these two teams? Denver destroys the cowboys and then get whooped by the Eagles. Do I think they bounce back here? I am not sure but I am leaning that way as I am really not sold on the Chargers. It seems if Mike Williams is defended well then they have no other ideas and I have faith in the Broncos coaching staff to do that.
Rams @ Packers - My process is to input all my data into my model, but not look at the results. Then I go through each line and do some thinking about what I like and what I don’t…..This was one of those where I think Rams coming off a bye is going to be big game vs a Packers team that has a really banged up Rodgers so I am all over the Rams here
Vikings @ 49ers - These teams have the exact same rating from my model and I will be honest, I am SHOCKED to see that (I actually doubled check the math to make sure). The fact the model has Minnesota as a top 10 team in the NFL make sense when I see them play and when you realize they are the only team in the NFL to have led every single game this year by at least 7 points….What did not make sense to me is the San Fran side of this as I tend to think of them as a team that is average at best and that is true of their offense, but their D has played pretty well and their “other” category1 is also highly ranked. I will be interested to see how this plays out and think the 49ers might be the play.
Browns @ Ravens (SNF) - I said it last week and I will say it again, “They look hurt, especially Baker,” He is playing realllllly poorly. Michael Lombardi said this on his Monday podcast and I couldn’t agree more2 “Case Keenum has to be better than this version of Baker”. This seem like Ravens all day to me and I guess folks are waiting to see if Lamar plays before this jumps to Baltimore -6
Parlays and Teasers:
I am continuing to tone it down this week.
Pending - 0.5u parlay +438 - Buf -6 / TB -3 / Cin -210
1u parlay +173 - LAR -130 / Cin -185
0.5u parlay +500 - LAR -130 / Cin -185 / NYJ +120
NBA Plays for 11/26
Recap - I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. As I mentioned on Wednesday, getting these out early to you all as I will be sending these out to the broader group with the NFL picks around 3pm so that all folks get a holiday treat.
Strategy - I am still only playing 1u and above plays on v1.0 so 4 games for me today.
Other Notes - Have a great day in all your action!
Plays Table v1.0:
Plays Table v2.0:
Best of luck in all your action!
Do not ask, I am not telling what this is, it’s part of my secret sauce, but looks at things like special teams
1) I am paraphrasing and 2) make sure you listing to the GM shuffle - it is well worth the time