Week 16 Picks and Analysis
Happy Christmas Eve!!! I hope you all are able to spend holiday season with the people in your life mean the most you, and that includes being able to virtually connect if you can’t be in person.
I want to wish you all a happy, healthy and safe holiday season.
Also, be on the look out for NBA Model Picks to be sent out early tomorrow morning! Christmas Day NBA games are one of my favorite traditions.
Game by Game analysis:
49ers @ Titans (Thursday) -
Titanic Model Output - Tennessee +3 (-105) for 0.5u - WIN
My 2 cents - I think the 49ers are actually good. I took a small shot at them 14-1 to win the NFC earlier this week. The Titans have seemed a shadow of themselves without Henry and I know that is not breaking news, but it is really interesting as they are still able to run the ball and doing so pretty well and they should have Julio and AJ Brown back.
Browns @ Packers (Saturday) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Shorter week for the Browns coming off Monday night football, but not many of there top players played. Other side to that coin is that lord knows how any of the players who have been sick this past week will look this week. Add in here that Myles Garrett has a pulled his groin so can someone let me know how they are going to get pressure on Rodgers if he doesn’t play or is hobbled? I think he is going to fling the ball around at will against this team. I am using Packers in my exotics.
Colts @ Cards (Saturday) -
Titanic Model Output - Arizona -1 (-111) for 1u
My 2 cents - I have believed for a long time and said in this column before that this team is very different with healthy and hobbled Kyler. What I did not realize until I listened to the Russillo podcast1 earlier this week about how different he is with and without Nuk Hopkins on the field. I again think the Colts are going to present an interesting matchup for a team and I think my model is looking at Cards data that is primarily including healthy Kyler so this has put me to the question of do you go with your model or do you go with the hot colts. I am going with the model. This line has moved from -2.5 to pk and back to -1 and I think there has been an over reaction to last week’s games on both sides here. If the Cards sell out to stop the run do you really want your money on Carson Wentz? I do not. Give me Cards - I think they are going to impress folks.
Lions @ Falcons -
Titanic Model Output - Lions +6.5 (+100) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - How bout them Lions?!?!?! They remain incredibly frisky and while I am not betting them can I ask → in what world should this Falcons team be favored against anyone by more than 3 points? I do not care that there may be no Goff. Why is EVERYONE on the Falcons?!? What am I missing? Warren Sharp can you help me? You tipped them earlier today. Maybe it is just me who is confused by this.
Ravens @ Bengals -
Titanic Model Output - Bengals -3 (-120) for 1u
My 2 cents - I do not want to hurt myself patting me on the back but I was all over the Ravens last week +6.5, +9, no Lamar, no worries and I was on the Bengals even though tons of folks were on Broncos. As of now this looks like it will be Huntley (and if not, it’s a beat up Lamar). Now, let’s be fair, Huntley has looked really good late in these games but I really worry about the Ravens D. They are one of the most injured teams in the league and now they have COVID problems2. I am going to keep riding with my Bengals. They have mostly treated me well and I like what my model is saying.
Rams @ Vikings -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I like the Rams here, but do not love them. They will know the result of the Cards / Colts game and will know they either need to keep pace with the Cards or have a chance to leapfrog them to the NFC West lead - either way, this will be a big game for them. I continue to be very underwhelmed by the Vikings and specifically their coaching. I am not sure there was a more underwhelming victory last week then them beating the Bears, but what gives me pause is this just seems like the type of game the Vikings win, right? Couldn’t you see Scott Hanson telling us to watch what just happened in Minni and we see Justin Jefferson running for a long TD? I think we all should be careful here.
Bills @ Pats -
Titanic Model Output - Buffalo +2.5 (-110) for 1u
My 2 cents - Call me and my model crazy, but I think the Bills win this game. Look you can argue that these teams just played and the Pats won that game and frankly won it pretty handily. Though, as someone who is VERY familiar with the worst of western NY weather, I can tell you that when it is bad like that it can make a game that is not really something you can rely on to learn anything. Give me the Bills and the points.
Jags @ Jets -
Titanic Model Output - NY Jets -1.5 (-115) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - I know my model was on the Jets last week so it booked us that win as the line just seemed too high, as the Jets were taking on a Miami team with a entirely unimpressive win streak (more on this later). We also should not not discount how badly the Jets are besieged by COVID right now as I am thinking they are about 2 more coaches getting sick before Cousin Greg will be manning the sidelines. For the Jags, I know folks got too excited about the Jags last week and credit to those that didn’t3 , but with Jets COVID issues this is a pass for me as I think this might be a week where Jags get a win and screw up their draft pick.
Giants @ Eagles -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - The Giants have shut down Daniel Jones for the season because of his neck injury and I am really interested to see what they do at QB in the offseason. If they let me run the team I would let Jake Fromm play this game. We know Mike Glennon sucks and it would be good to see if Fromm has any juice. An interesting thing I did not realize before today, is that the Eagles are 30th in the league in sacks. That was astounding to me as I always think of the Eagles getting tons of pressure. I say this because, while I think the Giants QBs are hot garbage, if you let them stand there they may actually be able to move the ball. I am also underwhelmed by Jalen Hurts clowning the WFT given half their team had COVID and 2 of the better defensive players got hurt in that game.
Bucs @ Panthers -
Titanic Model Output - Tampa Bay -10 (-105) for 1u
My 2 cents - Carolina is now 0-12 in their last 12 games that Cam Newton has started. I am going to go out on a limb and say they go to 0-13. TB is now my model’s top team and it is safe to say that the Panthers are no anywhere close to that.
Chargers @ Texans -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Get ready for a feisty Texans team here. Do I think the value is actually on the Texans side? Yes I do. Would I be totally shocked if they win this game? No, I wouldn’t. Do I think it would be smart to use the Chargers in exotics? No, I do not.
Bears @ Seahawks -
Titanic Model Output - Seahawks -6.5 (-105) for 2u
My 2 cents - I watched every minute of these two teams’ games from last week and it is honestly hard for me to figure out which offense is more awful. The Bears had a number of opportunities and got into the redzone and then looked like they had never practice before while Seattle’s offense was frankly unbelievably bad during that Tuesday night game. Oh and please save your “ohhhh what about the missed DPI call” for someone else. You are right, that was a missed call, but that doesn’t excuse the other 58 min of dreadfulness. I do not understand what they are doing in Seattle (and I am not the only one4) and it is amazing when you think about this OC was handpicked by Russell Wilson. My model is all over Seattle on this one, and I do not have anywhere near that level of confidence, but in my model I trust.
Steelers @ Chiefs -
Titanic Model Output - KC -8.5 (-110) for 1u
My 2 cents - Look, I was on the Steelers last week and for about 2.5 quarters I looked nuts……Well they play 4 quarters and their D eventually made the difference. That said Chiefs present a wholly different proposition and I agree with what Bill Simmons said on his Monday podcast5 with Cousin Sal, I am going to go out on a limb and say Big Ben can’t score with Mahomes. That allllll said, the Chiefs are the team beset by COVID this week so who knows. This line started a -9.5, dropped to -7 and has slowly climbed back up. This type of movement early-ish in the week tells me that folks “in the know” believe Chiefs might be somewhat healthy going into this game and getting Kelce and/or Hill back.
Broncos @ Raiders -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I do not know if this is just because I need it for the Futures I have out there, but I do not know how folks are betting on the Raiders UNLESS it is just “Drew Lock is crap and I think he is playing” bet. By the way, that logic seems sensible to be because Lock SUCKS, but I think Derek Carr also isn’t very good and it is very possible the Broncos D takes over this game. I lean towards the Broncos.
Washington @ Dallas (SNF) -
Titanic Model Output - Dallas -10 (-108) for 1u
My 2 cents - Look, I am a cowboys fan and I think they win this game and should win it handily. These teams met 2 weeks ago and nothing has changed for me on the cowboys defense ability to pressure the WFT and make life miserable for their QBs. That all said, these are a lot of points and given the cowboys current offense I am just not confident that they can roll up the points they need to cover this number, especially with some of the COVID players coming back for Washington in their front 7.
Phins @ Saints (MNF) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - Prior to the COVID absences being announced I wrote → “Saints are all pumped up after their win against the Bucs last week and they really should be getting the plaudits, but sorry, I am not THAT impressed by them scoring 9 points. That said, please tell me how impressed I should be about a 6 game win streak over Texans, Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, and Jets?? That is the streak the Dolphins have been on to get back into the playoff picture. Color me dubious. I like the Saints in what should be a rocking dome”………. Now, the Saints are going to be starting Ian Book and Blake Bortles was signed today to be his back up. Similar to the Washington D the back half of last season, we should be careful overrating D’s that looks great against terrible QB’s, BUTTTTT this is another terrible QB. I look forward to betting against them next week in Nashville, but for this week give me Phins and Under
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Keeping these tight this week but I may have some more on Sunday
2u 7.5pt teaser +110 - Buf +10 / GB pk / Dal -3
1.1u 6pt teaser -110 - Dolphins +4 / Mia-NO Under 43
1u Christmas parlay +137 - Ari -117 / GB -360
1u 10pt Teaser +135 - GB +2.5 / Ari -9 / TB pk / Dal pk / Mia +7.5 / KC +1.5
0.5u 6pt teaser +160 - Chi-Sea U48.5 / Jax-NYJ U47 / Mia-NO U43
0.5u parlay +411 - Bills +110 / Cinci -175 / GB -360 / Dallas -470
0.5u parlay +689 - Bills +110 /Ari -120 / Jags +105
0.25u parlay +2254- Bills +110 /Ari -120 / Jags +105/ GB -360 / TB -445 / DAL -470 / Cinci -175
Futures Watch:
Got the Cowboys to win and Bears to lose last week to win us those bets. We also had a couple games go our way, but one against us so we have 4 teams that with a win or a loss will clinch our bets are as follows this week:
One game away
Baltimore u11 - they have 8 wins and 3 games to go so any loss turns this into a winning bet for us
Jets u6 - Jets have 3 win and 3 to go so Jets would need to go 3-0 to get a push on this so any loss and we book a win
Las Vegas u7 - They have 7 wins so any more wins and we lose this bet.
New Orleans u9.5 - they have 7 wins with 3 games to go so any more losses and we win this bet and given their COVID situation we just might be able to book the W late Monday evening
Other Pending Ones
Denver o8.5 - Need them to go 2-1 or better
Pittsburgh u8.5 - Need them to go 1-2 or worse
Washington o8.5 - Need them to go 3-1 in their last 3 games.
Good luck in all your action! See you back here tomorrow with a couple adds and some DFS!
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32930172/baltimore-ravens-had-just-13-defensive-players-wednesday-practice