Week 18 NFL Sunday Update
NFL Coverage for Today
As you will see below, I am rerunning my NFL Analysis from Friday’s article1. I got great feedback on this last week so I am doing again and again reordering the content to bring Parlays, Teasers and Others and DFS up to the top so that if folks aren’t interested they can just ignore the bottom section.
I have not re-run the model this go around.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Keeping these tight this week
These ones are from yesterday:
Pending - 2u +110 10pt Teaser KC -1 / Pats +3.5 / Bills -6.5 / Colts -5
Pending -0.5u +530 on Dal -193 / Kc -505 / Min -225 / Ten -250 / Pats -275 / LAR -210
Settled:
Loss - 0.5u +260 6pt Teaser KC-Den u50.5 / NO-ATL o34 / NYJ-Buf u46.5 / LAC-LV u54.5
Loss - 0.575u to win .5u -115 - Denver Broncos team total under 16.5
Win - Collab with @VolunteerBets: 1.05u -105 Dallas 1H -3
Adding these:
2u +150 10pt Teaser of Atl +14 / Mia +16 / Bal +7 / Bills -6 / Min +6
1.1u -110 6pt teaser Atl +10 / Atl-NO over 34
1u +146 parlay Min -195 / Bal -160
0.5u +135 7pt teaser LAC-LV U55.5 / NO-ATL O33 / NYJ-Bu U48
Twitter Parlay Give Away - risk 0.25 +3142:
Daily Fantasy -
Taking a pass this week
Game by Game analysis:
Games that do not matter so I am going to give as much effort as these teams - aka none
Washington @ Giants
Packers @ Lions - No rodgers, nothing to play for, I would stay the hell away from this.
Bears @ Vikings - note I took Vikings earlier this week at -3 but that line is waaaaaaaaaay gone.
Chiefs @ Broncos (Saturday) -
Titanic Model Output - Denver +11 (-115) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - I am not saying the Broncos are throwing this game, but they are starting Drew Lock and that seems like distinction without a difference. I am not betting on this because as much as I love betting against Drew Lock the Chiefs LOVE giving up a back door cover. Broncos top two CB’s are out.
Cowboys @ Eagles (Saturday) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - This line went from Cowboys -3.5 to -7.5 when it appeared the Eagles were going to take a pass on this game, but then it started to fly back the other way once the Cowboys started to COVID players left and right. Eagles have a ton of COVID and do not seem to care whether they end up in the 6 or 7 seed. The Cowboys on the other hand are saying they are going to play and try to win this game and give them a chance (small one) to get out of the dreaded 4 seed. One fun note, a cowboys win will make them the only team in the NFL to go undefeated in their division.
Bengals @ Browns -
My 2 cents - The Browns are shutting up shop by finally getting Baker the surgery he needs, but the Bengals are also making the smart call and benching Burrow.
Colts @ Jags -
My 2 cents - Colts need to win this game and the Jaguars suck and suck badly. the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and16 points is a lot, but after seeing the turd the Jags laid last week and them staring down the off season, not sure this game should be on your betting ledger.
Steelers @ Ravens -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - No Lamar, but Huntley has looked pretty good. I think they win this game as I think the Steelers are just asking to have a let down game after their emotional win Monday night. Also, can I get a little credit for giving that game out at Steelers +3.5 and that game actually swung 6.5 to Steelers -3?!?
Titans @ Texans -
My 2 cents - Titans win and get the 1 seed and I can not see the Texans pulling this upset though this is a lot of points
Saints @ Falcons -
Titanic Model Output - Saints -3.5 (-110) for 2u
My 2 cents - Falcons continue to over achieve and I think they are terrible. That said, they played the Bills hard last week and while the Saints really should win this game I am not so sure as this line seems really fishy to me. The Saints are actually playing to get into the playoffs so I like them to win
Jets @ Bills -
Titanic Model Output - Bills -16 (-110) for 1u
My 2 cents - Golly this is a lot of points, but we saw the Bills go into a game that didn’t really matter last year and wipe the floor with the Dolphins. I think the are going to do it again here.
49ers @ Rams -
Titanic Model Output - LAR -4 (-110) for 1u
My 2 cents - This is a super interesting game. The 49ers have recently done really well vs the Rams so I was leaning that way. That said, argument the other way is you are going to see them forcing the ball to Kupp as he needs 12 receptions and 136 to break Michael Thomas’ and Megatron’s season long records and the 49ers pass D hasn’t been great and a lot of them have COVID. I would guess Trey Lance is playing this game which worries me on my liking them. In the end, I am going with my model.
Pats @ Phins -
Titanic Model Output - New England -6.5 (-110) for 0.5u
My 2 cents - The Dolphins are one of the most smoke and mirror teams I have seen in years. Tua is not good and as I have laid out a ton of times, they were beating garbage teams and I LOVED the Titans last week. The dolphins have played the Pats hard the last couple years since Flores became the head coach but they are trash. Pats here.
Seahawks @ Cards -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I think we are looking at a let down game for the Cards and I like the Seahawks with the points
Panthers @ Bucs -
My 2 cents - woooooooooo boy what to do about the Bucs. They should be favored by like 17, but they were getting beat by the Jets, they are super injured, to say they have drama is an understatement, and they are not going to not be playing guys. I am taking a pass.
Charges @ Raiders (SNF) -
Titanic Model Output - Pass
My 2 cents - I am going to assume that the Colts win or if they lose that these two teams won’t conspire for a tie to both make the playoffs….yes that could really happen and while I might lose my bets it would be HILARIOUS. I think this is a really fun matchup, but the Chargers seem to go well if they have Mike Williams and they will have him.
Futures Watch:
Our Futures are 6-4 so far this season with the following remaining:
Pittsburgh u8.5 - Need them to lose this one to get a win on the bet
Good luck in all your action!