Week 5 NFL Picks
Happy Friday!!!
For those of you who have followed my twitter account before you will know that I always post all of the action my #TitanicModel suggests, but as a friend1 pointed out to me, not everyone wants to bet 7, 8 or even more games in a given day. He is absolutely right!!! One of the great things about Substack is that I am no longer limited by a character count, so what you will find in this space each week is the following in order:
My NFL model output - this will similar to my old twitter content and will be tracked in my weekly performance update
My teasers / parlays - again, this will similar to my old twitter content and will be tracked in my weekly performance update
My NFL analysis - NEW CONTENT ALERT!!!!! This will be a blend of my model output and my own personal takes on the games. For each game I will lay out my thoughts and what I would personally do if I was picking and choosing only a few games to bet each week. I am putting this at the bottom incase people don’t care and want to stick to the content they are used to. I will also be tracking this and will add it to the weekly performance update.
Let’s get to it!!! Let’s cash tickets!!
#TitanicModel output2:
3u Play:
Ari -4.5 (-110)
2u Plays:
Car -3 (-110)
1u Plays:
NYJ +3 (-110 - released yesterday)
Cin +3 (-115)
Min -10 (-110)
TB -10 (-105)
New Orleans -2 (-116)
Jax +4.5 (-110)
Cle +2.5 (-110)
Buf +3 (-120)
0.5u Plays:
Sea +2.5 (Loss)
LV -5.5 (-110)
Dal -7 (-108)
Parlays and Teasers:
Dang, I thought Seattle was going to get there until Wilson’s mallet finger
(Lost) Long shot parlay for 0.25u for +2374 of Sea ML / NYJ ML / Cin ML / Den ML
(Pending) 7 pt tease for 1u +120: Car +4 / Dal pk / Ari +1.5
(Pending) 7 pt tease for 0.25u +325: NYJ +10 / Cin +10 / Buf +10 / Dal pk / Bal pk
(add) Long shot parlay for 0.25u for +1398 of Car ML / Cin ML / Ari ML / NYJ ML / Min ML
(add) 7 pt tease for 1u +120: Bal pk / NYJ +10 / Min -3
Game by Game analysis:
Jets vs Falcons (London) - I jumped on this early for a reason. I would have been on the Jets even if the Falcons WR’s weren’t out, but now that they are missing both Gage and Ridley I am going in on JETS +3 and would absolutely look hard at Jets ML.
Dolphins @ Buccaneers - Is this a let down game for Bucs after last week’s emotional win or do they walk in and curb stomp the Phins? I don’t know so I PASS
Eagles @ Panthers- If you are willing to go with a 5th pick, it would be this one. I really like PANTHERS -3. Rhule has that team playing well and Darnold is at the top of that list. Getting CMC back would be a HUGE shot in the arm for that team and the fans in Charlotte will be rocking. As we saw last week, the Panthers will struggle against a team that can power them up the middle as the front 7 are quick but small. I don’t think the Eagles can do that and the Panthers team speed can neutralize Hurts running ability.
Saints @ Washington - Has any team had a weirder season than the Saints? Destroy the Packers, COVID related blow out loss to Carolina, pound the Pats and then blow last week’s game vs the Giants. I think they bounce back here and I am taking SAINTS ML -140. I honestly don’t know how Washington’s defense fell off so badly, but they did and that concerns me.
Titans @ Jags - PASS - I am out on both of these teams. No thanks.
Lions @ Vikings - PASS - The Lions are really bad but can be frisky and I can’t lay 10 with Cousins. I maintain my position they are going to blow up all the survivor pools one week. Is this the week? I don’t think so.
Broncos @ Steelers - PASS - Big Ben sucks and is WASHED, but something seems fishy here. Mike Tomlin is a great coach and he is scaring me off of going deep in on Denver.
Packers @ Bengals - Count me as officially concerned about how the Packers have looked and impressed with the Bengals. I think this is a bad match up of schemes as well so I am in on BENGALS +3 and again would take a long look at the ML.
Bears @ Raiders - My model like LV -5.5 and that line scares me. Should I be impressed that the Bears beat that awful Lions team? Why isn’t this line -7? What does Vegas know?!? PASS.
Browns @ Chargers - I am excited to see this game and I would be on the Browns if it weren’t for this news about Baker’s throwing shoulder so it is a Pass for me. If he looks healthy, I might consider an Live bet.
Giants @ Cowboys - This is a hard one for me. The Cowboys have looked great the last two weeks and should blow out this Giants team, especially if they are missing their WRs. The three things that gives me pause are that this is an NFC East game and those tend to be close, Cowboys struggled with Darnold running last week and Jones is a far better runner, and Cowboys ALWAYS struggle with RB screens and Saquan is NASTY at them. I am going to PASS, but this will tell me if the Cowboys are as good as I think they are.
49ers @ Cards - I don’t get it. I see folks everywhere all over the 49ers. What am I missing?!? Maybe I will just straight up take an L here, but Lance is not ready for the prime time and I think the Cards are playing amazing football. CARDS - 4.5
Bills @ Chiefs - This is a PASS for me. Both offenses have looked great and it would come down to the D’s for me, but how can you trust the Bills D? They have played TERRIBLE QB’s so far. We will find out after this game if they are for real
Check out @SlickSportsPick on Twitter. He is CRUSHING with his MLB picks
As per the usual, these are based on the line at the time of me hitting publish at either Bovada or BetOnline