2022 Mid-term elections
As you may or may not know, yesterday was Election Day in a number of places in the US that have or needed off cycle elections for things like Governor, congress, mayor etc., but what this really means is we are now on the clock for the Mid-Term elections coming November 8th, 20221!!
I enjoy politics. I find it super interesting as it is the intersection of economics, psychology and reality (well maybe a little less reality for the political extremes). While I really enjoy politics, I actually do not have an official political party affiliation. As Chris Rock2 famously said, “there are things I am conservative about and there are things I am liberal about”, but this lack of political alignment has made me a profitable political bettor over time, you could even call me the real life Amy Gardner3.
Many off-shore websites offer action of a host of election bets and I will definitely leverage that for some of my action, but the primary place I place action is with a website called PredictIt.org. This site is a fully legal site that allows you to make predictions on all sorts of political items and it is where a lot of my action will be placed (also this action tends to be <$75 dollar per position as you will see below so I my goal is to be profitable, but this is more for general amusement).
I plan on sharing my action with this group as I make it (at least the ones I have highest confidence in) and will track everything in my weekly updates4. This action will be free for all who care / are interested and will be posted as I make it.
It is worth noting that I have some action already out there and I will post that at some point, but my positions / trading yesterday were all done through PredictIt5:
VA Gov - Youngkin to win - 100 contracts, avg price of 0.40 - open
NJ Gov - Ciattarelli to win - 50 contracts, avg price 0.11 - closed @ 0.35
Outlay of $5.5 and closed for $17.5 for a profit of $12.5
2022 Election - GOP to take Senate - 100 contracts, avg price of 0.65 - open6
It is always the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November
Google “Chris Rock on Politics -- A Message To Liberals & Conservatives!” if you have 60 seconds to watch
Hat tip to anyone who get’s that reference.
Tracked as Futures in the “other” bucket
Hopefully it’s clear but none of this is an endorsement of these candidates or parties or their views, but really looking to make money based on perceived value…..Just sharing this for your info, these won’t be tracked as you all couldn’t have gotten in.
This is currently 0.70 per contract. I think there is still some value here, but not as much.