Conference Championship Weekend
It will be difficult for the NFL to top last weekend, but let’s see if they can. Obviously, as the number of games dwindle down so does the action we place.
Let’s crush it!
Game by Game analysis:
For the playoffs, I have am giving a bit more content for each game. Enjoy!
AFC Championship - Bengals @ Chiefs (Sunday 3:00pm) -
Weather Report - Should be low-mid 50’s with wind 10 to 15 mph
Line Movement -
Open: KC -7 and 50.5
Current: KC -7.5 and 54.5
Stat that might matter -
Week 17 - Cinci beat KC 34-31 in Cinci - We should remember this game was 28-17 with KC leading at half and the Bengals D only gave up 3 points in the second half - this was also the Jamar Chase game
Titanic Model Output
My 2 cents -
Chiefs - My initial view is pretty much everyone else is thinking which is that KC should win this game. When you watch the tape you think that this is what is going to happen. The Bengals could not block the Titans DL and I am not sure it is going to be much better in this game BUTTTTT as far as I understand it EVERYONE is teasing KC down to pk, -0.5, and -1. That is a PROBLEM. As they always say, they do not build the big shiny casinos to lose so let’s discuss how this game might go poorly for KC and that is clearly when Burrow and Co have the ball in their hands. The KC defense has not been good of late, especially against the run and will by missing Tyron Matthieu.
Bengals - Now, Burrow is not Josh Allen when it comes to running, but he is deceptively athletic (yes, this is code of white QB who can move) and is tough as hell. He takes an absolute beating because their offensive line is ATROCIOUS. I was very much on the “take Sewel over Chase” train the draft and this is why. Mixon is a runner that can move the ball and I am not sure that KC has figured out how to cover Jamar Chase, though I am not sure anyone has so they certainly can score with them if they can keep Burrow alive.
Verdict - I am going with Cinci +7.5 because I really do not like be on the side that everyone is hammering and I am going to trust my model. I also think this total is too high. Remember the Bills / Chiefs game was looking at an easy under until both teams agreed to stop playing defense the last few min of that game.
NFC Championship - 49ers @ Rams (Sunday 6:30pm) -
Weather Report - Should be a nice warm day in southern Cali (as it always is), but they are indoors at SoFi
Line Movement -
Open: LAR -3.5 and 47
Current: LAR -3.5 and 45.5
Stat that might matter -
49ers beat the Rams in Week 10 (31-10) and Week 18 (27-24) in OT.
49ers are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs the Rams
In the Week 18 Match-up the Rams only had 260 yards
Titanic Model Output
My model’s rankings
Overall: SF #7 / LAR #5
Offense: SF #8 / LAR #6
Defense: SF #6 / LAR #11
Other: SF#24 / Rams #3
My model thinks this line should be Rams -2.8
This line is within the margin of error so it is a PASS
My 2 cents - I am breaking down some thoughts by each team:
49ers - I have gone back an rewatched the last 3 games the 49ers have played and starting in the 2nd half of the 4Rams game and throughout the Dallas and Green Bay games the 49ers have done the same exact thing and to amazing effect. The strategy has been this: On early downs, be able to stop the run without committing extra bodies to the box and on passing downs getting pressure with their front 4 so they can drop 7 into coverage. I know, that is not ground breaking stuff, but that is working and working incredibly well. Demeco Ryans has this team playing incredibly well. I do worry about SF if Trent Williams is unable to play and the DB’s ability to hold up in this game.
Rams - I thought the way the Rams built their lead early in their game versus the Bucs was really amazing. They looked great and were moving the ball with ease and their D looked strong and got tons of pressure. Now, what do we make of the late collapse? If this was a one time thing, I would say, alright it happens. Let’s take a look at the points the Rams have given up after halftime in their last 6 games to see if there is a trend:
Divisional Round - gave up 24 points to the Bucs
Wild Card - gave up 11 to the Cards
Week 18 - gave up 21 to the 49ers
Further info on this one, it might just be that 49ers tend to attack a part of the field that the Rams are not good at defending. @PFF_Moo from Pro Football Focus has a great tweet that show this pictorially
Week 17 - gave up 6 to the Ravens
Week 16 - gave up 20 to the Vikings
Verdict - I am going SF +3.5 (-113) as I think someone is going to be kicking to win this game in the end so I like the points here and I originally liked the under here but with the movement you will see me actually play the over in a teaser.
Parlays, Teasers, and Others:
Okay, what you are going to see below might look bizarre but let me tell you my thought process. Everyone is teasing KC down so I am absolutely teasing Cin the other way. Then it becomes a question of what do I pair it with. I personally believe the other game is going end up being close, think it will be within a TD and likely within a FG so I am going to do 2 teasers and open up a 13 point middle opportunity on the 2nd game that also includes a ton of key numbers.
2.4u -120 6.5pt teaser of Cin +14 / SF +10
1.2u -120 6.5pt teaser of Cin +14 / LAR +3
1u +200 7pt teaser of Cin +14.5 / Cin-KC U 61.5 / SF +10.5 / SF-LAR O 38.5
I might be back with some adds / props on Sunday so be on the lookout for that!
Futures Watch:
I am going to keep this section rolling each week to show where things stand
Adds
0.875u on LAR money line -175 - This is a hedge on our San Fran SB wager to make sure we at least double our money
Pending
1.15u NFC SB Money Line -115
0.25u San Fran to win Super Bowl +2200
Thank you to the reader who messaged me to remind me that I said the following in my Week 16 post “I think the 49ers are actually good. I took a small shot at them 14-1 to win the NFC earlier this week.” I honestly completely forgot that I made this wager and even posted about it. I hope you did as well!
Settled
Loss - 0.5u Dallas to win Super Bowl +1100
Loss - 0.25u Dallas-KC SB match up +1600
Loss - 0.5u Buffalo to win Super Bowl +500
Loss - 1u Titans to win AFC +300
Loss - 0.25u Green Bay - Titans SB match up +1000
Loss - 0.5u Green Bay - KC SB match up +550
Daily Fantasy -
I do not do DFS at this point of the season as I generally prefer to have a bunch of games to pick from (hence why I usually do Thur-Mon).
Good luck in all your action!
Note this is rankings and not ratings. Ratings are what drive the lines
This is a composite of the other rankings and helps to drive my ratings, and no I will not tell you how this is calculated
This is a composite of a number of things that I find important for teams. I will not go into specifics, but it includes things like Special Teams ratings, penalties,