Open de France - Recap
That was PAINFUL!!! I know I know, we hedged and we did not lose a ton of money, but wooooof. Walking off the 2nd tee Jordan Smith was leading by 6 strokes (he was only up 5 by the time he hit the 3rd tee) and his odds were -500. I will take that in the final round every single week, but this week it did not turn out as he couldn’t buy a putt over 5 feet. Oh well!
We ended up with a 1.3u loss. Not the worst thing in the world but tough to stomach when we were looking at a 14u profit (after the hedge). The top 10 bets get there, but the Top 20s lose after Rai more or less finishes DFL1. We split the head-to-heads and neither were particularly competitive.
We are in the midst of a great year and we ended September with a 13.5u profit to continue the hot streak we had in August! That graph should tell you that we had a hot start last fall, ground flat for 4-5 months, but stuck to the process and started to find some success in the late spring and the summer has been HOT! Let’s keep it going!
Alfred Dunhill Links
The DP World Tour resumes in Scotland for what is one of my favorite tournaments of the year! The players participating in this tournament will be asked to play:
Old Course at St Andrews (Par 72; ~7,320 yards)
Carnoustie Links (Par 72; ~7,400 yards)
Kingsbarns Golf Links (Par 72; ~7,225 yards)
Each player will play each of the courses over the first 3 rounds, with the top 60 professionals advancing to the final round on Sunday at the “home of golf”. There is also the interesting in that 4 LIV players were invited to play in this tournament!
The 2022 Championship was won by Ryan Fox (50-1 odds) when he shot -15 to beat Alex Noren (30-1) and Callum Shinkwin (80-1) by 1 stroke. The 2021 edition saw Danny Willett (80-1 odds) shoot -18 to top joint-favorite Tyrrell Hatton (16-1) and Joakim Lagergren (80-1) by 2 strokes, and the 2019 edition saw Victor Perez (-22) win by beating Matthew Southgate by 1 stroke.
The 72-hole record for this tournament since its inception under the current format was achieved in 2017 by Tyrrell Hatton when he shot -24 (264 strokes) to win the 2nd of his back-to-back titles.
Obviously, this is being held the week after the Ryder Cup so we are not getting some of the big names that would normally take part here and we already placed our action on the Sanderson Farms Championship on the PGA Tour so my tickets for this week take ~7u of risk:
Outright2
0.75u Dean Burmester 25-1
0.75u Jordan Smith 25-13
0.4u Romain Langasque 45-1
0.25u Niklas Norgaard Moller 80-1
0.15u David Law 125-1
Top 10
0.5u Ryan Fox +185
0.25u Romain Langasque +400
0.25u Niklas Norgaard Moller +500
Top 20
1.25u Ryan Fox -125
0.5u Dean Burmester +110
0.5u Romain Langasque +165
0.25u Ewen Ferguson +275
0.25u David Law +300
0.25u Alex Fitzpatrick +315
Matchups
0.3625u Gavin Geen over Shubankar Sharma -145
0.325u Antoine Rozner over Eddie Pepperell -130
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 45 min or so of publication.
Good luck with all your action!
DFL - Dead Fucking Last
My numbers show value on Fleetwood at 7-1, but given the emotions of the Ryder Cup, I am can’t bet him and honestly, I am not even sure he is going to play this. My numbers also show the SLIGHTEST of value on Ryan Fox, but at 16-1 he is too low for me as I would have liked to have seen him over 20-1 so I will look to use parlays to get some action on him. I might take a small shot at SH Kim too.
Yes, I am doing this again. He was head and shoulders ahead of everyone else in the Open de France until he tried to putt on Sunday.