DPWT - Australian PGA and Joburg Open
Let's go back-to-back as the race to Dubai starts again!!!
DP World Tour Championship - Recap
After he took the 36-hole lead, I said on the Gamblers Paradise Discord that I thought Nicolai Hojgaard was what everyone was saying Ludvig Aberg would be. Then on Saturday he really struggled down the back 9, especially late, I wondered if the moment was a little too big for the 22-year-old.
Well, it might turn out they are both who we thought Aberg was! As impressive as Aberg’s 61-61 was this weekend and it was definitely a WOW1, let’s talk about Hojgaard going 5 birdies in a row down the stretch in a tournament against major winners and the reining PGA Tour FedEx Cup Champ!
Now that is a single tournament and we should not overstate it, but that was what I like to call BIG BOY golf and the best part is that there are still lessons for him to learn, like his rushed and nervy 6-foot birdie putt on 18 that would have shut the door right there. It was clearly nerves, but it’s okay. He is only 22 and he is going to be a star in the US when he joins the PGA Tour full-time in January.
Obviously, it is hard to look past that top-line number of 16.4u with the outright winner, but I do like that we had a profit for the Top 10’s thanks to Nicolai and Matthieu Pavon (+450). Matthieu has quickly become one of my favorite golfers on the planet in the last 5ish weeks and I am so glad he was able to make a birdie on 18 to earn one of the 10 DPWT players to get his PGA card. I just wish that Nicolai’s twin brother, Rasmus, was one of the lucky 10, but he ended up #11 in the rankings after Pavon grabbed the slot.
We also had a tidy little profit on match-ups and that is something I will happily take given how much they have struggled this year.
Australian PGA Championship and Joburg Open
Well the Race to Dubai wrapped up last week, sooooooooooooo let’s start a new one!!!
That is right! The DP World Tour not only doesn’t take a week off, but it actually has TWO tournaments in the first week of the season!
Joburg Open
The first tournament taking place this week is the Joburg Open. This open was established in 2007 and will be played across 7,240 yards (Par 72) at the Houghton Golf Club in Johannesburg, South Africa. This course has hosted 8 South African Opens.
Three things of note this week:
This is a qualifying tournament for the 152nd Open Championship. The top 3 players who make the cut and are not already exempt with get to tee off at Royal Troon.
In the 15 editions of this tournament, a South African has taken home the title 9 times.
This course sits over 5,000 feet above sea level so expect the course to play much shorter than the listed yardage
The 2022 Joburg was won by Dan Bradbury2 who was playing in just his 3rd tournament as a professional and had no status on the tour when he shot -21 to top Sami Valimaki (50-1) by 3 strokes. The 2021 edition saw South African Thriston Lawrence (over 150-1) shoot -12 to win a weather-shortened tournament over fellow countryman Zander Lombard (60-1) by 4 strokes, and in the 2020 open Joachim B Hansen (over 125-1) shot -19 to beat Wilco Nienaber (30-1) by 2 strokes.
Fortinet Australian PGA Championship
The other tournament we will discuss is taking place in lovely Australia with the 87th edition of the Australian PGA Championship. You might ask “How do they play golf in Australia if they are upside down?” and I will tell you that I have been to Australia and you would never realize you are upside down while there3!
This will be the 5th edition4 that will be hosted at Royal Queensland Golf Club in lovely Brisbane, Australia5. This championship course has hosted the Australian Open 3 times and boasts Adam Scott as a member will play to a par of 71 across 7,130 yards.
The 86th edition saw Aussie and betting favorite Cameron Smith (7-2 odds) capture his 3rd Australian PGA when he shot -14 to top Ryo Hisatsune (50-1) and Jason Scrivener (50-1) by 3 strokes. The 85th edition saw Jediah Morgan shoot -22 and absolutely CRUSH the field as Andrew Dodt came in solo second but was 11 strokes behind, and in the 84th edition, which was played in 20196, Aussie and betting favorite Adam Scott captured his 2nd title at 11-2 when he topped Michael Hendry by 2 strokes at Royal Pines.
The Plays
We have two tournaments here I am going to have a more limited card for each, risking 8.5u total:
Joburg Open
Given this tournament’s history with long-shot winner after long-shot winner, I am going to go with a longer card with 7 outright selections, with 2 shorter-odds guys, 1 mid-odds, and then 4 long shots. A total of 5.1u of risk:
Outright
0.8u Dan Bradbury 22-1
0.72u Romain Langasque 25-1
0.45u Niklas Norgaard 40-1
0.18u Ross Fisher 100-1
0.18u Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100-1
0.145u Shaun Norris 125-1
0.12u Manuel Elvira 150-1
Top 10 (0.25u each)
Dan Bradbury +300
Romain Langasque +325
Top 20
0.5u Dan Bradbury +135
0.5u Romain Langasque +150
0.25u Niklas Norgaard +220
0.25u Shubhankar Sharma +250
0.25u Kiradech Aphinbarnrat +320
0.25u Manuel Elvira +350
Australian PGA
This tournament has better field, but has a ton of LIV guys in it so it becomes hard for me to handicap as I am really not sure what to make of those tournaments as well as the Japanese Tour many of them have been playing on so I am going with a more modest 3.425u here trying to grab a big win with an outright, but am not too worried if we strike out completely.
Outright
0.9u Ryo Hisatsune 20-1
0.51u Jason Scrivner 35-1
0.45u Alex Fitzpatrick 40-1
0.275u Eddie Pepperell 65-1
0.14u Kazuki Higa 135-1
Match-ups
0.325u Ryo Hisatsune over Marc Leishman -130
0.2875u Joaquin Niemann over Adrian Meronk -115
0.2875u Sean Crocker over Richard Mansell -115
0.25u Jason Scrivner over David Micheluzzi +105
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds. I bet them as I write this so they are live within the 45 min or so of publication.
Good luck with all your action!
It had literally never happened on the Tour before
I can’t find odds for him last year. That is how long of a shot he was!
Yes, I am making a flat-earth joke
The editions held at Royal Queensland are 86th, 85th, 66th and 65th.
Go Roar!
2020 and 2021 were canceled due to COVID