Recap - Dubai Invitational
It is never nice losing money so do not get me wrong when I say this, I am pretty happy with how that tournament turned out. Yes, we lost 1.6u, and the only place we won money was Top 10 bets, where we went 2-0.
The reason I am saying that is that this is a tournament that is brand new and a course I have never seen before. As such, I took it quite lightly with our betting card and we had guys in contention all four days. Yes, we didn’t find a winner, but we were one Tommy Fleetwood putt away from having a guy in a playoff.
While we did have guys in contention all week and we ended up having a T2 with one of our outrights, we do have to be honest with ourselves. Lawrence did all we could ask with a bogey-free -7 in the final round to get into contention, but Rory really should have won that tournament by 5+ strokes. Even then, Lawrence’s struggles at 181 kept him from the promised land.
Yes, I wish we had a profit like we did in the Sony where we painted the leaderboard with guys, but for the first go of the year. Not too shabby!
Dubai Desert Classic
The course:
Okay, after last week’s brand-new tournament, we are staying in Dubai for the Dubai Desert Classic! The 35th edition of this tournament will once again be staged at the Karl Litten2 designed-Emirates Golf Club, which plays to a par of 72 across 7,430 yards. This course boasts Bermuda/Rye fairways and rough with TifEagle Bermuda greens.
While this is another desert course, which means the wind could be a factor, there are some key differences to last week:
This course is quite a bit longer than last week’s and also has several holes with dog legs, which Dubai Creek did not.
Historically, this course has played well for those who can hit the green in regulation as the greens don’t have a ton of undulation and run reasonably quickly.
Last week had no cut, but this is the first full-field event of 2024 with 126 gentlemen taking part and a normal DPWT-style cut being in place after 36 holes
The other thing to keep an eye on this week while watching the scores is that the back-9 has historically played far easier than the front-9 as it has three par-5s and the 17th hole is a short par 4.
This event became part of the famed Rolex Series on the DP World Tour in 2022, which means the quality of the players in this tournament increased greatly that year. As such, the increased purse has drawn in some of the best players from around the world, including some PGA Tour players making the trek, and this year is no different with a crop of folks flying in from Hawaii with Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, and Cam Young taking the long flight.
Prior results:
2023 - favorite Rory McIlroy (3-1) captured his 3rd Desert Classic by shooting -19, LIV star Patrick Reed (60-1) came in 2nd by 1 stroke
2022 - 2nd-favorite Viktor Hovland (9-1) beat Richard Bland (125-1) in a playoff after they both shot -12
2021 - 5th-favorite Paul Casey (20-1) shot -17 to beat Brandon Stone by 4 strokes
2020 - Lucas Herbert beat Christiaan Bezuidenhout in a playoff after they each shot -9
The 72-hole record was set by Bryson Dechambeau in 2019 when he won with a tremendous -24 (264 strokes). Rory will be looking to extend his record of wins in the Desert Classic by winning his 4th title. He will also be looking to be just the 2nd person to win back-to-back titles after Stephen Gallacher who did it in 2013 and 2014.
Last year’s First Round Leaders were Ian Poulter and Ludvig Aberg after they each shot 65, but they finished T6 and T70, respectively. Rory completed the first round one shot back after a 66.
The bets:
One super interesting thing I am thinking about this week comes from the PGA Tour. As I covered in the Sony Open picks, there was a lot of correlation to playing the Sentry and then doing well at the Sony and you heard a lot of the golfers coming off the course yesterday and talking about how they felt it helped them get comfortable.
Then last week on the DPWT we saw Fleetwood, who played the Sentry, travel halfway around the world and win. As such, I am going to focus on guys who have already completed a tournament.
Given that we are still early in the season, facing another tournament with a crazy short-money favorite, and we have the American Express (link to picks) on the PGA Tour, I am going light with 4.4u of risk:
Outright3:
0.56u Adrian Meronk 22-1
0.42u Rasmus Hojgaard 30-1
0.42u Thorbjorn Olesen 30-1
0.32u Ryan Fox 40-1
0.11u Sean Crocker 125-1
Top 10 (0.25u each):
Rasmus Hojgaard +220
Ryan Fox +250
Top 20:
1u Ryan Fox +110
0.5u Thorbjorn Olesen 105
0.5u Adrian Meronk +115
0.25u Hennie Du Plessis +225
0.25u Michael Thorbjornsen +265
As always, I am using BetOnline and Bovada to pull these odds.
Good luck with all your action!
On both Saturday and Sunday he hit perfect drives into the middle of the fairway and was not able to convert either into a birdie, and Saturday he had what should have been an easy 2 putt par and he bogeyed the hole.
A reminder that Karl also designed the course last week at Dubai Creek
I really wanted to bet Hatton but he is too short for me. I will look to add him via parlay