DPWT - French Open Hedge?
If you played my DPWT - Cazoo Open de France card this week you are sitting with 0.6u risked on Jordan Smith at 28-1.
Well after round 2, he is 3 strokes up on 2nd place and 5 strokes up on the rest of the field so the question becomes - should I hedge?
I always say that hedging is a personal choice as it is something each person should evaluate for their own risk tolerances and bankroll so I cannot tell you what you should do and you really need to decide for yourself.
But let me lay out our options:
First and foremost - if you are going to hedge make sure you have a perfect hedge! That means there are no outcomes that cause you to lose both bets. If you are not sure what I mean, I covered this in more detail in Gambling Lessons Learned Part 4.
Thankfully BetOnline has this market!
Now that you understand that let’s talk numbers!
Right now our ticket of 0.6 at 28-1 will return to us 17.4u
Option 1 - cover initial risk
I bet 0.81u at -135
If Smith wins - I return 16.59
If Smith loses - I return 1.41,
This covers my initial 0.6 bet and my 0.81 bet so I effectively freeroll my original action
Option 2 - small profit
I bet 2.7u at -135
If Smith wins - I return 14.7u
If Smith loses - I return 4.7u
This covers my original bet and gives me a 2.1u profit on top
Option 3 - Carry very little risk
I bet 9.99u at -135
If Smith wins - I return 7.41
If Smith loses - I return 17.39
This effectively hedges away allllllll the risk and either way I end up with about 7.4u of profit.